NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	90		Excitement	3.6 [1139]		MVP	Jamal Crawford (ATL): +5.4%
Portland Trail Blazers	83		Comeback	1.8 [329]		LVP	Josh Smith (ATL): -11.2%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Crawford	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05	0.01	-0.00	-0.05	13	64%	0.11	6	-0.06	10	90%	0.01
Kirk Hinrich	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.09	7	57%	0.09	4	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05	0.07	0.02	0.04	16	65%	0.09	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	0.00	0.03	5	73%	0.05	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.02
Jeff Teague	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	4	25%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	5	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Josh Powell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.12	-0.01	-0.02	14	39%	-0.05	4	-0.07	8	75%	-0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	75%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	9	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Roy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	9	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Andre Miller	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	0.04	17	54%	0.00	3	-0.05	3	67%	0.00
Rudy Fernandez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.10	0.00	-0.02	7	29%	-0.03	3	-0.04	3	100%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	0.03	10	52%	-0.03	3	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	0.04	14	50%	-0.03	3	-0.05	10	70%	-0.00
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.01	0.04	12	37%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	3.6	33.1	18.5	27.5	2.6	40.2	149.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +45.2%

ATL +7.4%

ATL +6.3%

POR -10.0%

ATL +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	POR	NBA	ATL	POR	NBA
this game	15.9	16.1	15.5	98.9	93.3	105.7
season	16.5	16.5		104.0	106.7
opponent	15.7	15.5		105.6	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	19.1	12.6	13.6	18.7	15.9
POR	15.1	18.2	18.5	12.6	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Horford	48	48	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.16	9	-2	11	14.7	17.2	-2.52	16.4	15.8	0.59
Marvin Williams	53	50	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.07	12	-5	17	14.8	17.4	-2.56	18.0	13.6	4.42
Joe Johnson	70	70	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.24	5	2	3	15.9	16.0	-0.07	15.6	17.9	-2.28
Jamal Crawford	65	64	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.33	2	5	-3	15.9	16.0	-0.14	15.5	17.5	-1.97
Josh Smith	76	75	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.26	4	3	1	15.6	17.2	-1.56	15.6	18.9	-3.36
Kirk Hinrich	56	54	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.44	-11	18	-29	16.7	14.5	2.21	15.0	17.8	-2.85
Josh Powell	12	11	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.03	5	2	3	14.7	16.1	-1.42	18.0	15.8	2.17
Damien Wilkins	13	12	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.04	5	2	3	17.6	15.6	2.00	17.5	15.9	1.62
Jeff Teague	24	24	0.10	0.40	-0.31	-0.05	5	2	3	16.2	15.8	0.36	17.9	15.4	2.49
Zaza Pachulia	38	37	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.09	-1	8	-9	17.9	14.5	3.42	15.5	16.5	-1.01

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Patty Mills	6	6	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.04	1	-8	9	18.8	15.9	2.93	21.2	15.5	5.64
Rudy Fernandez	38	41	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.03	-7	0	-7	17.7	14.9	2.81	15.0	16.7	-1.73
Gerald Wallace	52	51	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.34	3	-10	13	15.8	16.6	-0.80	17.6	13.8	3.79
Brandon Roy	31	32	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.12	-5	-2	-3	18.3	14.9	3.36	15.7	16.0	-0.33
LaMarcus Aldridge	72	72	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.31	1	-8	9	15.7	17.6	-1.84	15.9	15.8	0.07
Marcus Camby	37	39	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.04	-11	4	-15	16.4	15.9	0.52	16.2	15.7	0.58
Andre Miller	73	74	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.31	0	-7	7	15.8	17.7	-1.93	15.5	17.6	-2.07
Nicolas Batum	69	71	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.21	-6	-1	-5	15.7	17.6	-1.93	15.3	18.1	-2.88
Wesley Matthews	67	69	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.15	-11	4	-15	15.2	18.8	-3.55	15.7	16.4	-0.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.3,0.27,0.17,0.19,0.16,0.18,0.12,0.18,0.17,0.11,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 132, MEM 103	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.55,0.63,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.52,0.44,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.3,0.2,0.22,0.2,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%
MIA 117, CLE 92	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.35,0.39,0.27,0.24,0.14,0.11,0.12,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.9%
TOR 124, CHI 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.27,0.24,0.13,0.17,0.18,0.2,0.16,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%