NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	75		Excitement	7.2 [395]		MVP	Wilson Chandler (DEN): +29.7%
Denver Nuggets	89		Comeback	2.1 [380]		LVP	Raymond Felton (DEN): -17.0%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Johnson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	3	75%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Delonte West	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.01	11	42%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Von Wafer	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.05,0,0,0	0.03	-0.03	-0.00	14	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	18	46%	0.08	2	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Avery Bradley	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	11	43%	-0.02	4	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Rajon Rondo	-0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	7	31%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Glen Davis	-0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.07	-0.09	-0.03	10	41%	0.02	3	-0.15	7	71%	-0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.12	0.18	0.00	9	73%	0.30	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.10	0.06	13	67%	0.18	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.02
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.07	-0.01	9	60%	0.12	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.02	0.02	8	68%	0.08	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	1	50%	0.03	1	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Ty Lawson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	5	29%	-0.04	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.04
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	6	17%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	7	31%	-0.01	2	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01
Nene	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.03	-0.12	0.00	9	57%	0.07	4	-0.22	3	67%	-0.01
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.08,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.14	-0.03	-0.00	8	25%	-0.05	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	3.4	34.5	18.7	31.2	2.8	29.3	143.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +52.2%

DEN +3.5%

DEN +15.3%

BOS -24.6%

DEN +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	DEN	NBA	BOS	DEN	NBA
this game	16.1	14.4	15.5	79.8	93.7	105.7
season	15.7	14.3		104.8	110.7
opponent	15.5	15.8		106.1	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.8	16.0	16.3	17.4	16.1
DEN	13.5	14.0	13.7	16.9	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Avery Bradley	9	8	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.08	-3	-11	8	15.9	16.1	-0.22	13.4	14.5	-1.12
Von Wafer	30	29	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.07	-6	-8	2	15.4	16.4	-0.96	13.3	14.9	-1.52
Chris Johnson	32	33	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.00	-4	-10	6	15.8	16.2	-0.46	13.6	14.8	-1.26
Delonte West	44	47	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.13	-2	-12	10	16.2	16.0	0.18	14.9	13.9	0.93
Kevin Garnett	76	77	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.08	-8	-6	-2	16.0	16.4	-0.38	14.6	13.6	1.04
Ray Allen	68	67	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	0.00	-13	-1	-12	16.4	15.3	1.02	14.6	14.0	0.52
Paul Pierce	55	56	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.20	-8	-6	-2	16.4	15.6	0.80	14.8	13.9	0.90
Glen Davis	71	71	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.03	-15	1	-16	16.0	16.4	-0.41	14.3	14.8	-0.58
Rajon Rondo	85	87	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.17	-11	-3	-8	16.1	15.9	0.22	14.5	13.4	1.12

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Raymond Felton	55	53	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.11	15	-1	16	14.7	14.0	0.73	15.8	16.4	-0.54
Nene	63	63	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.12	10	4	6	14.5	14.2	0.37	16.0	16.2	-0.11
Arron Afflalo	58	59	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.08	11	3	8	14.7	13.9	0.74	16.2	15.9	0.27
Ty Lawson	45	48	0.32	0.18	0.15	-0.03	12	2	10	14.3	14.5	-0.25	16.3	15.8	0.51
J.R. Smith	52	50	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.10	7	7	0	14.1	14.7	-0.63	16.3	15.9	0.42
Wilson Chandler	52	49	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.12	2	12	-10	14.7	14.0	0.73	16.1	16.0	0.08
Kenyon Martin	50	52	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.02	6	8	-2	14.9	13.8	1.14	15.5	16.8	-1.27
Chris Andersen	28	25	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.00	4	10	-6	13.5	14.8	-1.23	16.5	15.9	0.59
Al Harrington	32	31	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.03	4	10	-6	14.2	14.5	-0.37	16.2	16.0	0.11
Danilo Gallinari	40	40	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.00	-1	15	-16	13.6	15.0	-1.43	16.1	16.1	0.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.42,0.45,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.38,0.48,0.39,0.44,0.54,0.57,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.64,0.41,0.4,0.53,0.79,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 102, HOU 108	0.5,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.43,0.37,0.63,0.53,0.59,0.47,0.61,0.63,0.91,0.85,1	92.7%
IND 92, NOP 96	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.53,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.41,0.26,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.28,0.53,0.64,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.71,0.84,0.84,1	92.6%
MIL 110, MIN 114	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.41,0.39,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.39,0.39,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.33,0.42,0.47,0.59,0.4,0.61,0.47,0.64,0.94,0.96,1	92.5%