NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	95		Excitement	4.0 [1060]		MVP	Rudy Fernandez (POR): +12.5%
Minnesota Timberwolves	81		Comeback	1.0 [932]		LVP	Corey Brewer (MIN): -9.0%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Fernandez	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.14	0.01	0.02	10	82%	0.13	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Wesley Matthews	0.10	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.02	-0.00	18	55%	0.10	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Dante Cunningham	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.10	0.01	0.02	14	64%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.00	-0.05	19	49%	0.08	1	-0.00	5	100%	0.02
Sean Marks	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Luke Babbitt	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	4	25%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.09	0.00	-0.04	5	27%	0.00	3	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	1	25%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Andre Miller	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.11	-0.01	-0.05	11	27%	-0.05	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Martell Webster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.10	-0.01	0.06	10	71%	0.04	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	13	59%	0.08	3	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	15	48%	0.04	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.05	-0.01	-0.07	14	46%	0.03	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Tolliver	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.04	-0.01	0.03	7	57%	0.02	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.01
Nikola Pekovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	3	37%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jonny Flynn	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.11	0.01	-0.02	6	7%	-0.05	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	0.6	31.7	16.3	26.4	2.5	29.2	132.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +33.4%

MIN -4.4%

POR +6.2%

POR +13.4%

POR +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	MIN	NBA	POR	MIN	NBA
this game	17.7	15.2	15.5	108.0	93.1	105.7
season	16.5	14.3		106.7	102.7
opponent	15.1	15.7		109.5	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	19.2	14.8	16.4	21.1	17.7
MIN	17.7	15.2	14.3	13.8	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wesley Matthews	75	74	0.53	-0.03	0.56	-0.06	20	-6	26	17.1	21.2	-4.01	15.0	16.3	-1.35
LaMarcus Aldridge	68	69	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.01	16	-2	18	18.6	14.7	3.93	15.8	12.8	3.00
Andre Miller	66	65	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.02	12	2	10	17.5	18.4	-0.83	15.0	15.5	-0.51
Nicolas Batum	59	58	0.31	0.19	0.13	-0.07	13	1	12	18.1	17.1	1.00	15.0	15.6	-0.59
Joel Przybilla	42	40	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.22	1	13	-12	15.8	19.5	-3.74	13.5	16.6	-3.07
Rudy Fernandez	50	50	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.16	2	12	-10	18.5	16.8	1.67	14.6	15.9	-1.27
Dante Cunningham	42	42	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.03	5	9	-4	18.0	17.5	0.59	17.0	13.5	3.51
Patty Mills	22	22	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.07	2	12	-10	18.4	17.5	0.83	15.5	15.0	0.51
Sean Marks	15	14	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.05	1	13	-12	18.6	17.6	1.04	15.6	15.1	0.57
Luke Babbitt	1	1	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.03	-2	16	-18	2.0	17.9	-15.92	9.0	15.2	-6.23

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Pekovic	16	17	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.14	6	-20	26	15.7	15.0	0.65	21.2	16.9	4.33
Luke Ridnour	64	66	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.33	9	-23	32	14.4	17.3	-2.97	17.9	17.4	0.50
Anthony Tolliver	22	21	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.09	0	-14	14	14.5	15.4	-0.95	16.8	18.0	-1.22
Wayne Ellington	65	67	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.30	7	-21	28	14.8	16.2	-1.43	17.8	17.5	0.34
Martell Webster	62	64	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.30	7	-21	28	14.6	16.6	-2.08	18.0	17.0	0.96
Kosta Koufos	12	10	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.10	-8	-6	-2	13.0	15.5	-2.51	13.3	18.3	-5.01
Darko Milicic	57	59	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.02	-12	-2	-10	15.5	14.5	0.96	18.1	17.1	0.95
Corey Brewer	25	24	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.21	-21	7	-28	16.6	14.6	2.08	17.0	18.0	-0.96
Wesley Johnson	22	21	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	0.21	-21	7	-28	16.2	14.8	1.43	17.5	17.8	-0.34
Jonny Flynn	23	22	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.24	-23	9	-32	17.3	14.4	2.97	17.4	17.9	-0.50
Kevin Love	67	69	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.02	-14	0	-14	15.4	14.4	0.92	17.5	18.5	-0.94

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.37,0.3,0.25,0.3,0.29,0.26,0.27,0.24,0.22,0.16,0.17,0.25,0.23,0.18,0.24,0.34,0.34,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.15,0.17,0.21,0.09,0.1,0.14,0.15,0.16,0.11,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 124, PHI 113	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.38,0.39,0.31,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.3,0.21,0.29,0.23,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.3,0.31,0.29,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.15,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.19,0.1,0.14,0.18,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0	95.8%
LAL 114, DAL 103	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.3,0.25,0.22,0.23,0.27,0.28,0.26,0.24,0.23,0.19,0.26,0.3,0.32,0.36,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.16,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.14,0.09,0.12,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.01,0,0	94.8%
SAS 99, UTA 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.39,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.28,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.26,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.24,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.15,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.17,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.8%