NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	108		Excitement	6.0 [634]		MVP	Darrell Arthur (MEM): +24.1%
Memphis Grizzlies	116		Comeback	20.0 [102]		LVP	Sam Young (MEM): -9.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ty Lawson	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.10	0.06	-0.01	7	100%	0.23	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.12	0.04	0.00	7	87%	0.15	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kenyon Martin	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.02	9	63%	0.05	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Nene	0.03	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.02	10	64%	0.08	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Carmelo Anthony	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03	0.06	-0.04	-0.00	20	58%	0.08	3	-0.06	8	87%	0.02
Al Harrington	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	0%	-0.06
Arron Afflalo	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.09	-0.00	-0.04	8	22%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Chauncey Billups	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.02	-0.03	11	54%	0.06	6	-0.13	2	100%	0.03

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.15	0.10	0.01	11	75%	0.26	1	-0.02	10	80%	0.05
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.13	0.07	0.01	8	77%	0.18	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Mike Conley	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.06	0.01	11	71%	0.16	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.06,0.11,0.12,0.12	0.12	-0.03	0.13	-0.02	13	48%	0.16	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.02	0.02	15	68%	0.14	4	-0.08	4	100%	0.01
Marc Gasol	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.01	8	65%	0.08	2	-0.06	7	71%	-0.01
Jason Williams	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greivis Vasquez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Young	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	11	27%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	2.8	27.3	17.3	31.1	1.8	31.0	137.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +15.5%

MEM +12.6%

MEM +15.4%

MEM +7.1%

DEN -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MEM	NBA	DEN	MEM	NBA
this game	14.5	15.1	15.5	112.5	117.2	105.7
season	14.3	15.5		110.7	106.1
opponent	15.5	15.5		103.7	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.2	12.3	15.5	17.0	14.5
MEM	17.3	15.8	12.8	14.3	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
J.R. Smith	49	49	0.20	-0.70	0.89	-0.01	7	-15	22	13.5	15.5	-2.00	13.9	16.2	-2.22
Chris Andersen	31	31	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.07	6	-14	20	13.3	15.0	-1.74	13.2	15.9	-2.77
Al Harrington	31	30	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-6	4	14.2	14.6	-0.41	13.9	15.6	-1.62
Kenyon Martin	58	60	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.07	-8	0	-8	15.0	13.7	1.34	16.0	13.5	2.51
Ty Lawson	37	37	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.14	-7	-1	-6	13.6	15.0	-1.38	16.1	14.4	1.72
Carmelo Anthony	75	79	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.26	-6	-2	-4	14.3	15.0	-0.68	15.7	12.5	3.21
Chauncey Billups	61	65	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.23	-7	-1	-6	15.1	13.4	1.64	14.5	16.1	-1.61
Nene	65	69	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.32	-6	-2	-4	14.6	14.2	0.41	15.6	13.9	1.62
Arron Afflalo	73	75	-0.77	0.27	-1.04	-0.27	-17	9	-26	15.3	11.9	3.42	15.1	15.1	-0.03

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darrell Arthur	61	61	0.73	-0.23	0.97	0.24	17	-9	26	14.9	15.4	-0.50	15.2	13.2	2.00
Sam Young	66	63	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.09	15	-7	22	15.3	14.5	0.86	14.9	13.7	1.22
Mike Conley	71	68	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.29	7	1	6	16.1	12.4	3.67	14.6	14.0	0.61
Zach Randolph	71	68	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.10	12	-4	16	14.7	16.0	-1.26	14.7	14.0	0.66
Tony Allen	58	57	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.26	6	2	4	14.8	15.4	-0.56	14.2	14.9	-0.77
Rudy Gay	81	79	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.29	3	5	-2	14.9	15.7	-0.81	14.4	14.6	-0.22
Jason Williams	16	16	0.21	0.29	-0.07	-0.08	10	-2	12	8.2	16.4	-8.20	16.4	14.1	2.36
Greivis Vasquez	12	12	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	0.05	-9	17	-26	18.1	14.6	3.44	10.8	15.0	-4.15
Marc Gasol	59	56	-0.53	1.03	-1.57	0.08	-21	29	-50	15.8	14.0	1.82	13.3	16.0	-2.71

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.53,0.49,0.38,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.34,0.3,0.23,0.18,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.15,0.19,0.3,0.29,0.33,0.47,0.36,0.53,0.78,0.74,0.84,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 108, CLE 113	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.42,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.3,0.31,0.28,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.16,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.25,0.33,0.28,0.41,0.6,0.72,0.9,0.84,0.93,0.96,1	92.2%
NYK 80, MIN 88	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.43,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.27,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.15,0.11,0.13,0.19,0.18,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.2,0.27,0.36,0.54,0.6,0.75,0.79,0.97,1,1	92.2%
IND 92, ORL 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.36,0.41,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.25,0.21,0.18,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.22,0.25,0.38,0.42,0.59,0.81,0.86,0.83,0.9,0.77,0.98,1	92.0%