NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	99		Excitement	5.9 [661]		MVP	Josh Smith (ATL): +19.2%
Washington Wizards	92		Comeback	1.2 [821]		LVP	John Wall (WAS): -8.6%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Smith	0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.11	0.04	-0.04	19	63%	0.24	3	-0.05	8	75%	-0.02
Marvin Williams	0.13	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.07	0.00	11	58%	0.13	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Damien Wilkins	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.06	0.01	5	80%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	0.01	0.03	12	70%	0.12	3	-0.06	6	100%	0.02
Mike Bibby	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Collins	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	1	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Maurice Evans	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Crawford	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06	-0.09	0.01	-0.02	12	32%	-0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Zaza Pachulia	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	4	47%	-0.04	1	-0.03	7	43%	-0.05

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.01	9	56%	0.08	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	9	72%	0.14	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Al Thornton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	10	48%	0.03	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.04
Nick Young	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.17,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.02	-0.01	17	52%	0.07	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.04
Andray Blatche	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	14	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Booker	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yi Jianlian	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Wall	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	0.02	-0.05	0.06	13	55%	-0.05	2	-0.04	7	29%	-0.08

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.6	31.1	15.7	23.6	1.8	36.5	134.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS -0.2%

ATL +24.6%

ATL +19.2%

ATL +1.6%

ATL +4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	WAS	NBA	ATL	WAS	NBA
this game	18.0	15.0	15.5	113.8	104.5	105.7
season	16.5	15.1		104.0	100.9
opponent	15.2	15.5		108.7	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.2	22.2	17.8	18.1	18.0
WAS	17.1	13.8	14.9	14.0	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Smith	71	73	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.23	13	-6	19	16.5	24.4	-7.94	15.0	14.8	0.21
Jamal Crawford	60	62	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.35	5	2	3	18.4	16.9	1.60	14.4	16.3	-1.94
Damien Wilkins	26	29	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.28	6	1	5	17.4	18.2	-0.76	14.0	15.5	-1.46
Joe Johnson	73	74	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.27	4	3	1	17.7	19.5	-1.84	14.6	17.0	-2.41
Marvin Williams	74	74	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.26	2	5	-3	18.8	13.4	5.37	14.6	16.7	-2.07
Jason Collins	25	25	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.05	3	4	-1	18.2	17.9	0.29	16.2	14.5	1.65
Maurice Evans	18	19	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.07	0	7	-7	18.9	17.7	1.18	16.8	14.5	2.31
Mike Bibby	45	42	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.04	3	4	-1	18.4	17.5	0.88	15.3	14.7	0.68
Zaza Pachulia	43	42	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.00	-1	8	-9	18.2	17.7	0.41	15.8	14.2	1.59

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Trevor Booker	19	19	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.04	3	-10	13	15.9	14.7	1.17	22.8	16.6	6.19
JaVale McGee	56	56	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.11	-1	-6	5	15.6	13.8	1.83	18.0	17.9	0.08
Yi Jianlian	16	16	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.00	-6	-1	-5	18.2	14.3	3.92	18.6	17.8	0.75
Rashard Lewis	60	58	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.16	-2	-5	3	15.0	14.8	0.23	16.8	20.2	-3.33
Nick Young	78	78	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.24	0	-7	7	14.8	16.2	-1.38	18.3	14.7	3.67
John Wall	60	60	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.11	-6	-1	-5	14.8	15.4	-0.66	16.5	21.1	-4.63
Al Thornton	30	30	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.20	-5	-2	-3	14.2	15.4	-1.18	20.2	16.8	3.43
Andray Blatche	70	69	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.26	-10	3	-13	14.7	16.2	-1.50	16.8	22.3	-5.45
Kirk Hinrich	51	49	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.35	-8	1	-9	14.2	16.1	-1.90	18.5	17.2	1.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.44,0.38,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.29,0.24,0.27,0.33,0.35,0.39,0.29,0.29,0.34,0.41,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.4,0.44,0.3,0.28,0.43,0.31,0.32,0.26,0.11,0.09,0.05,0.1,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 89, CHI 76	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.33,0.31,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.29,0.31,0.35,0.33,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.48,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.21,0.21,0.37,0.26,0.24,0.13,0.06,0.01,0,0,0	93.6%
UTA 98, MEM 88	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.29,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.39,0.33,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.31,0.19,0.25,0.33,0.31,0.4,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.32,0.38,0.3,0.38,0.28,0.23,0.17,0.24,0.17,0.11,0.07,0,0,0	93.6%
LAL 103, CHI 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.4,0.39,0.31,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.32,0.32,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.33,0.37,0.36,0.24,0.1,0,0,0,0,0	93.4%