NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	103		Excitement	6.3 [516]		MVP	Sasha Vujacic (LAL): +21.6%
Chicago Bulls	91		Comeback	1.1 [578]		LVP	Kirk Hinrich (CHI): -14.4%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sasha Vujacic	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.12	0.10	0.00	10	76%	0.26	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.03
Lamar Odom	0.13	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.08	0.06	0.02	11	61%	0.13	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.00
Luke Walton	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.03	0.01	8	67%	0.09	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Andrew Bynum	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	-0.01	0.08	-0.01	9	55%	0.15	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.03
Derek Fisher	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.03	0.03	-0.04	10	43%	0.09	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Trevor Ariza	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.02	4	60%	0.06	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Ronny Turiaf	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	40%	-0.03	1	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Vladimir Radmanovic	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	-0.06	0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	19	43%	-0.01	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Jordan Farmar	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	8	31%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luol Deng	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.06	0.12	0.01	21	57%	0.22	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.04	-0.01	10	58%	0.13	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.01
Aaron Gray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	8	47%	0.03	1	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.01	0.03	5	83%	0.06	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.04	0.01	9	42%	-0.03	3	-0.10	1	100%	0.01
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.13	-0.05	-0.03	16	46%	0.03	6	-0.17	5	60%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	1.8	30.0	14.8	25.2	2.6	30.2	128.9
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +10.6%

LAL +16.7%

LAL +19.1%

LAL +7.4%

CHI -3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	CHI	NBA	LAL	CHI	NBA
this game	15.6	14.3	15.4	106.2	94.8	105.7
season	14.6	15.0		110.6	102.2
opponent	15.5	15.2		105.4	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	15.9	16.2	14.2	15.9	15.6
CHI	16.1	12.0	16.5	12.9	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lamar Odom	80	80	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.10	18	-6	24	15.2	17.3	-2.11	14.4	13.5	0.94
Kobe Bryant	75	74	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.14	13	-1	14	14.7	18.5	-3.87	14.9	12.4	2.49
Andrew Bynum	80	80	0.51	-0.01	0.53	-0.02	18	-6	24	15.4	16.3	-0.89	14.9	11.3	3.56
Jordan Farmar	50	50	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.10	9	3	6	16.7	14.3	2.40	12.7	16.0	-3.30
Sasha Vujacic	44	43	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.07	6	6	0	15.6	15.5	0.15	12.5	15.7	-3.16
Trevor Ariza	31	30	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.16	0	12	-12	16.7	15.0	1.69	14.3	14.3	0.03
Derek Fisher	47	46	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.05	3	9	-6	14.3	16.7	-2.40	16.0	12.7	3.30
Luke Walton	42	40	0.03	0.47	-0.43	-0.02	2	10	-8	15.2	15.9	-0.69	15.2	13.6	1.66
Ronny Turiaf	17	16	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.16	-6	18	-24	16.3	15.4	0.89	11.3	14.9	-3.56
Vladimir Radmanovic	19	21	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	-0.01	-3	15	-18	19.4	14.6	4.74	13.4	14.5	-1.15

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyrus Thomas	44	45	0.06	-0.56	0.63	-0.05	4	-16	20	12.8	15.5	-2.74	17.1	14.2	2.90
Thabo Sefolosha	3	4	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.03	-1	-11	10	8.7	14.5	-5.80	15.2	15.6	-0.32
Adrian Griffin	2	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-12	12	6.0	14.5	-8.46	19.7	15.4	4.24
Chris Duhon	36	37	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.09	2	-14	16	14.0	14.5	-0.49	17.8	14.1	3.69
Joe Smith	27	27	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.01	-6	-6	0	16.4	13.5	2.91	13.6	16.3	-2.77
Ben Wallace	56	57	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.04	-8	-4	-4	14.8	13.6	1.21	14.9	16.5	-1.61
Aaron Gray	40	40	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.19	-4	-8	4	13.6	14.8	-1.21	16.5	14.9	1.61
Andres Nocioni	52	52	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.07	-11	-1	-10	14.2	14.4	-0.28	16.1	15.0	1.08
Ben Gordon	67	68	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.05	-13	1	-14	14.1	14.8	-0.73	14.5	18.0	-3.53
Kirk Hinrich	76	76	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.20	-10	-2	-8	14.5	13.3	1.18	15.0	17.7	-2.75
Luol Deng	77	76	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.15	-13	1	-14	15.0	11.3	3.70	15.3	16.5	-1.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.4,0.39,0.31,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.32,0.32,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.33,0.37,0.36,0.24,0.1,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 108, ORL 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.49,0.38,0.4,0.47,0.55,0.48,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.43,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.24,0.1,0.03,0.03,0,0,0	94.0%
SAS 89, CHI 76	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.33,0.31,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.29,0.31,0.35,0.33,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.48,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.21,0.21,0.37,0.26,0.24,0.13,0.06,0.01,0,0,0	94.0%
IND 88, DET 77	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.32,0.38,0.26,0.26,0.31,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.37,0.36,0.24,0.14,0.03,0,0,0,0	93.8%