NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	113		Excitement	4.7 [903]		MVP	David Lee (GSW): +14.8%
Golden State Warriors	102		Comeback	1.4 [931]		LVP	Monta Ellis (GSW): -10.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.02	-0.00	11	61%	0.13	1	-0.03	11	64%	-0.03
Gary Neal	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.01	-0.02	7	69%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Antonio McDyess	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.03	0.02	9	70%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
George Hill	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	-0.00	-0.01	12	50%	0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Tony Parker	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.01	0.01	13	62%	0.06	2	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	0.03	0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.01	12	57%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
DeJuan Blair	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	4	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	3	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	8	62%	-0.02
Larry Owens	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Quinn	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	10	45%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Lee	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.20	0.02	0.07	19	72%	0.17	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.02
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.12	0.04	0.03	7	72%	0.14	1	-0.01	11	91%	0.05
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Acie Law	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	6	58%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lou Amundson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ekpe Udoh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.02	4	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.03	-0.05	15	47%	0.06	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	26	45%	-0.02	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	2.5	29.0	14.7	27.4	2.4	24.7	127.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +24.6%

SAS +3.6%

SAS +16.8%

SAS +3.6%

SAS +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	GSW	NBA	SAS	GSW	NBA
this game	15.5	14.3	15.5	117.7	105.2	105.7
season	15.5	14.8		109.3	106.6
opponent	15.2	15.2		109.0	103.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.3	15.3	15.1	16.5	15.5
GSW	12.4	15.3	14.3	15.5	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio McDyess	48	50	0.59	-0.09	0.68	-0.08	23	-12	35	14.9	16.2	-1.25	14.8	13.7	1.10
George Hill	63	62	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.14	9	2	7	15.1	16.3	-1.21	14.5	14.1	0.39
Tim Duncan	53	55	0.39	0.11	0.27	-0.08	16	-5	21	15.4	15.7	-0.24	14.6	13.9	0.67
Tony Parker	64	66	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.09	16	-5	21	15.7	15.3	0.34	14.1	14.7	-0.64
Richard Jefferson	63	64	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.12	5	6	-1	16.0	14.8	1.19	14.3	14.3	-0.04
Gary Neal	45	48	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.01	7	4	3	15.8	15.3	0.53	14.7	13.9	0.83
Manu Ginobili	65	65	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.21	0	11	-11	15.3	16.1	-0.82	14.1	14.7	-0.52
Tiago Splitter	43	40	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.31	-7	18	-25	15.8	15.3	0.49	14.2	14.4	-0.23
Larry Owens	4	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	15	-19	18.7	15.4	3.35	12.0	14.4	-2.38
Chris Quinn	4	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	15	-19	18.7	15.4	3.35	12.0	14.4	-2.38
DeJuan Blair	28	29	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.12	-6	17	-23	15.4	15.6	-0.21	13.4	14.7	-1.33

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Gadzuric	8	8	0.06	-0.56	0.63	-0.02	3	-14	17	12.5	14.5	-1.97	14.4	15.6	-1.27
Ekpe Udoh	11	12	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.11	4	-15	19	15.4	14.2	1.19	15.9	15.5	0.43
Acie Law	19	18	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.09	1	-12	13	16.1	13.9	2.23	14.7	15.7	-1.01
Lou Amundson	13	13	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.11	1	-12	13	14.9	14.2	0.71	14.8	15.7	-0.80
Vladimir Radmanovic	29	27	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.01	-3	-8	5	14.1	14.4	-0.29	16.7	15.1	1.62
Stephen Curry	74	73	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.16	-4	-7	3	13.8	16.0	-2.22	15.8	14.8	0.94
Reggie Williams	27	27	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.00	-11	0	-11	16.0	13.7	2.29	14.7	15.9	-1.22
Dorell Wright	84	83	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.20	-6	-5	-1	14.0	16.1	-2.04	15.7	14.8	0.89
David Lee	78	78	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.15	-9	-2	-7	14.1	15.3	-1.25	15.3	16.7	-1.38
Monta Ellis	87	87	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.09	-13	2	-15	14.1	16.0	-1.89	15.7	14.2	1.46
Andris Biedrins	55	54	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	0.04	-18	7	-25	14.7	13.8	0.84	15.6	15.5	0.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.51,0.59,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.33,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.25,0.3,0.24,0.33,0.23,0.16,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.13,0.09,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 110, SAS 97	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.22,0.11,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%
DEN 105, UTA 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.56,0.53,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.39,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.12,0.07,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.1%
IND 86, GSW 71	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.44,0.41,0.33,0.3,0.21,0.23,0.22,0.33,0.3,0.21,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.9%