NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	105		Excitement	5.0 [810]		MVP	Ty Lawson (DEN): +16.1%
Utah Jazz	95		Comeback	1.4 [302]		LVP	Ronnie Price (UTA): -13.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ty Lawson	0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.10	0.06	-0.00	14	70%	0.25	3	-0.09	5	80%	-0.00
Arron Afflalo	0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.10	0.02	-0.00	8	72%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nene	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.01	-0.02	13	71%	0.17	4	-0.07	5	80%	0.01
J.R. Smith	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	19	42%	0.01	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Chris Andersen	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	60%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Joey Graham	-0.05	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	7	44%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Kenyon Martin	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	0.01	12	46%	-0.01	3	-0.07	2	0%	-0.03
Anthony Carter	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	0.02	5	40%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Deron Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	10	67%	0.12	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Mehmet Okur	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.01	10	59%	0.11	3	-0.07	7	86%	0.02
Kyrylo Fesenko	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.01	0.02	6	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
CJ Miles	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.02	6	58%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andrei Kirilenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	6	56%	0.03	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	-0.04	5	50%	0.04	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Ronnie Brewer	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.02	0.05	8	50%	-0.05	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.04
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.04	0.03	15	56%	0.03	5	-0.14	2	100%	0.00
Ronnie Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.03	-0.00	5	36%	-0.04	4	-0.10	4	25%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	2.5	28.7	15.0	31.3	2.5	27.4	132.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +21.0%

DEN +1.4%

UTA -3.5%

DEN +30.2%

DEN +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	UTA	NBA	DEN	UTA	NBA
this game	14.7	14.9	15.3	108.2	96.9	106.0
season	14.4	15.3		110.3	109.5
opponent	15.0	15.5		104.5	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.7	14.4	15.0	16.8	14.7
UTA	15.5	15.6	13.8	14.5	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ty Lawson	77	78	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.08	17	-7	24	14.4	15.5	-1.06	14.8	15.2	-0.41
Nene	75	73	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.14	11	-1	12	15.0	13.5	1.50	14.9	14.8	0.16
Kenyon Martin	76	78	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.19	7	3	4	14.4	15.5	-1.10	14.4	16.6	-2.16
J.R. Smith	67	68	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.13	5	5	0	14.1	15.9	-1.84	15.1	14.4	0.64
Joey Graham	42	44	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.04	7	3	4	14.7	14.7	0.01	15.4	14.5	0.88
Arron Afflalo	54	54	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.15	3	7	-4	15.1	14.1	0.93	14.1	15.8	-1.75
Anthony Carter	52	52	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.19	0	10	-10	15.3	13.9	1.36	14.6	15.2	-0.52
Chris Andersen	42	43	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.12	0	10	-10	14.5	14.8	-0.32	16.2	13.8	2.41

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyrylo Fesenko	1	1	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-10	10	0.0	15.0	-15.03	15.0	14.7	0.34
Paul Millsap	45	43	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.03	-4	-6	2	15.6	14.2	1.42	14.9	14.4	0.49
Ronnie Price	40	40	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.15	0	-10	10	15.8	14.2	1.56	14.5	14.7	-0.19
CJ Miles	33	34	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.11	-2	-8	6	13.8	15.4	-1.69	14.9	14.5	0.39
Andrei Kirilenko	49	47	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.03	-7	-3	-4	15.9	13.8	2.08	14.1	15.1	-0.99
Wesley Matthews	43	43	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.11	-4	-6	2	15.3	14.6	0.67	14.5	14.8	-0.35
Mehmet Okur	66	68	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.31	1	-11	12	14.3	16.1	-1.76	15.1	13.6	1.58
Ronnie Brewer	59	57	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.11	-10	0	-10	14.2	15.8	-1.61	13.8	15.8	-1.98
Deron Williams	78	77	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.14	-10	0	-10	14.7	15.5	-0.84	15.3	12.3	2.97
Carlos Boozer	76	75	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.11	-14	4	-18	14.9	14.8	0.14	14.4	15.4	-0.97

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.56,0.53,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.39,0.22,0.24,0.23,0.2,0.12,0.07,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 127, SAC 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.51,0.58,0.49,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.5,0.43,0.4,0.33,0.25,0.27,0.26,0.22,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.18,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%
IND 87, MIA 65	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.49,0.59,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.37,0.42,0.34,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.15,0.18,0.13,0.11,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.11,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%
SAS 113, GSW 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.51,0.59,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.33,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.25,0.3,0.24,0.33,0.23,0.16,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.13,0.09,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	95.1%