NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	100		Excitement	8.9 [132]		MVP	Rudy Gay (MEM): +37.9%
Toronto Raptors	98		Comeback	2.2 [596]		LVP	Zach Randolph (MEM): -29.1%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Gay	0.38	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.38	0.03	0.34	-0.01	20	48%	0.38	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Mike Conley	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.18,0.18	-0.00	0.19	0.01	9	54%	0.23	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.07
Marc Gasol	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	-0.01	0.06	-0.07	14	53%	0.20	4	-0.08	4	75%	0.01
O.J. Mayo	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.10	-0.05	0.01	10	65%	0.05	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Darrell Arthur	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.02	0.00	7	44%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Allen	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.00	6	67%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Hasheem Thabeet	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greivis Vasquez	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Sam Young	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zach Randolph	-0.29	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.18,-0.25,-0.25,-0.29	-0.09	-0.18	0.02	24	35%	-0.27	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.06	0.15	0.01	20	53%	0.25	1	-0.03	7	100%	0.11
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.07	0.00	5	77%	0.15	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,0,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	-0.02	27	51%	0.12	3	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
Ed Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	29%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Julian Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.03	-0.07	0.00	7	61%	-0.01	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.17
Sonny Weems	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.13,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	0.02	10	58%	0.13	4	-0.19	6	83%	0.01
Sundiata Gaines	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	10	30%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	2.6	26.4	18.4	25.4	2.5	44.8	145.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +23.7%

TOR -12.9%

MEM +20.8%

MEM +18.2%

MEM +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	TOR	NBA	MEM	TOR	NBA
this game	16.2	15.6	15.5	111.1	107.7	105.7
season	15.5	15.1		106.1	104.7
opponent	15.5	15.5		111.2	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	16.2	16.2	14.4	18.2	16.2
TOR	15.8	18.1	14.4	14.5	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rudy Gay	73	73	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.53	-3	5	-8	16.5	15.1	1.39	15.6	15.7	-0.04
Darrell Arthur	37	36	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.11	11	-9	20	16.1	16.2	-0.14	16.6	15.0	1.61
Marc Gasol	76	78	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.35	0	2	-2	16.4	14.8	1.66	16.1	12.7	3.44
Mike Conley	65	67	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.46	-5	7	-12	17.1	13.9	3.14	15.4	16.3	-0.95
O.J. Mayo	61	66	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.05	12	-10	22	16.0	16.6	-0.64	14.9	17.6	-2.76
Tony Allen	22	19	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.38	-5	7	-12	16.4	16.1	0.23	16.6	15.4	1.19
Zach Randolph	67	68	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.43	-7	9	-16	15.9	16.9	-0.97	14.6	18.8	-4.27
Greivis Vasquez	24	24	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.04	7	-5	12	14.5	16.8	-2.30	16.3	15.4	0.95
Sam Young	24	24	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.03	0	2	-2	15.7	16.3	-0.60	17.0	15.1	1.85
Hasheem Thabeet	1	0	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.02	0	2	-2	0.0	16.4	-16.37	0.0	15.6	-15.64

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ed Davis	42	41	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.27	-12	10	-22	17.1	14.4	2.66	16.2	16.2	-0.03
Jerryd Bayless	70	71	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.49	13	-15	28	15.2	17.0	-1.83	16.5	14.8	1.71
Andrea Bargnani	83	82	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.38	5	-7	12	15.8	14.4	1.38	16.5	13.5	2.95
Julian Wright	77	76	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.44	6	-8	14	15.4	17.0	-1.61	16.3	15.7	0.56
Sonny Weems	16	15	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.02	-10	8	-18	17.8	15.2	2.64	16.9	16.0	0.89
Sundiata Gaines	32	30	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.06	-11	9	-20	16.5	15.2	1.38	15.8	16.4	-0.53
DeMar DeRozan	78	78	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.36	-4	2	-6	15.4	16.8	-1.32	15.8	18.9	-3.15
Amir Johnson	57	57	-0.69	0.19	-0.89	-0.78	3	-5	8	14.4	17.7	-3.30	15.8	16.8	-0.99

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.54,0.57,0.61,0.66,0.65,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.36,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.25,0.26,0.18,0.21,0.11,0.07,0.1,0.15,0.39,0.47,0.54,0.33,0.28,0
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 106, SAC 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.38,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.29,0.22,0.3,0.21,0.14,0.23,0.18,0.41,0.46,0.62,0.64,0.55,0.26,0	92.2%
DAL 102, CHI 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.53,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.49,0.4,0.52,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.32,0.38,0.44,0.41,0.4,0.28,0.19,0.18,0.25,0.21,0.15,0.14,0.16,0.22,0.32,0.37,0.15,0.05,0	91.9%
MIL 89, IND 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.51,0.41,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.39,0.41,0.38,0.3,0.22,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.15,0.27,0.32,0.31,0.16,0.18,0	91.4%