NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	106		Excitement	8.0 [273]		MVP	Vladimir Radmanovic (SEA): +20.2%
Sacramento Kings	101		Comeback	3.0 [265]		LVP	Luke Ridnour (SEA): -16.3%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vladimir Radmanovic	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.2,0.2	0.06	0.14	-0.00	7	75%	0.23	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Danny Fortson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	-0.00	4	81%	0.12	2	-0.06	8	87%	0.03
Antonio Daniels	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	10	58%	0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Nick Collison	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	3	75%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Ronald Murray	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	14	68%	0.14	4	-0.12	6	67%	-0.00
Reggie Evans	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jerome James	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.11,-0.23,-0.23,-0.09	-0.06	-0.05	-0.03	21	50%	0.13	4	-0.22	6	67%	-0.01
Luke Ridnour	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.19,-0.16	-0.03	-0.14	-0.01	9	48%	-0.16	0	0.00	9	89%	0.03

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Bibby	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.17	0.17	0.06	0.07	-0.04	20	54%	0.17	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
Darius Songaila	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.03	0.07	-0.01	16	56%	0.14	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Greg Ostertag	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erik Daniels	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	10	45%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.07,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.03	-0.07	0.00	13	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	2	75%	0.02	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.04
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	6	29%	-0.04	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.03
Cuttino Mobley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.06	0.01	16	50%	-0.05	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.07
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.05	-0.01	8	25%	-0.13	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.0	2.5	26.2	15.4	30.4	2.5	35.5	134.5
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +35.9%

SEA +25.0%

SEA +14.6%

SAC -23.6%

SAC -1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	SAC	NBA	SEA	SAC	NBA
this game	16.9	15.3	15.5	119.1	112.2	104.0
season	16.5	14.7		109.5	108.1
opponent	15.6	15.6		106.4	107.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	18.0	16.4	15.3	18.0	16.9
SAC	14.1	17.9	16.0	13.3	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vladimir Radmanovic	51	52	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.28	10	-5	15	16.5	17.4	-0.85	15.2	15.4	-0.16
Antonio Daniels	50	51	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.19	12	-7	19	17.5	16.2	1.35	15.3	15.3	0.04
Luke Ridnour	61	62	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.41	1	4	-3	17.0	16.8	0.13	14.8	16.2	-1.41
Reggie Evans	50	50	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.35	2	3	-1	17.4	16.3	1.12	15.2	15.3	-0.13
Nick Collison	34	36	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.04	9	-4	13	16.4	17.2	-0.85	16.4	14.5	1.90
Rashard Lewis	72	71	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.28	-4	9	-13	17.6	13.9	3.67	15.2	15.5	-0.32
Ronald Murray	66	67	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.12	1	4	-3	16.0	19.4	-3.35	15.3	15.3	-0.04
Danny Fortson	39	39	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.04	0	5	-5	15.8	17.8	-1.99	15.5	15.1	0.37
Jerome James	22	22	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.13	-6	11	-17	18.3	16.5	1.81	14.8	15.4	-0.67

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brad Miller	58	58	0.19	-0.69	0.89	-0.04	8	-13	21	15.2	15.4	-0.25	17.3	16.1	1.20
Erik Daniels	2	1	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.02	-2	-3	1	14.5	15.3	-0.80	16.0	16.9	-0.92
Greg Ostertag	14	14	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.04	-7	2	-9	17.3	14.9	2.38	14.8	17.3	-2.52
Michael Bradley	21	19	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.09	-3	-2	-1	15.2	15.3	-0.11	16.1	17.1	-1.09
Mike Bibby	61	61	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.28	1	-6	7	14.7	16.6	-1.88	17.3	16.0	1.28
Kevin Martin	28	26	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.05	-10	5	-15	16.7	14.6	2.03	16.8	17.0	-0.20
Cuttino Mobley	77	78	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.36	0	-5	5	15.0	16.8	-1.74	17.2	15.0	2.18
Darius Songaila	78	78	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.27	-4	-1	-3	15.1	16.2	-1.03	17.2	15.0	2.18
Eddie House	52	51	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.35	-4	-1	-3	15.1	15.5	-0.34	16.9	16.9	-0.02
Matt Barnes	59	59	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	-1	-3	15.5	14.8	0.77	16.2	18.2	-2.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.38,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.29,0.22,0.3,0.21,0.14,0.23,0.18,0.41,0.46,0.62,0.64,0.55,0.26,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 100, TOR 98	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.54,0.57,0.61,0.66,0.65,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.36,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.25,0.26,0.18,0.21,0.11,0.07,0.1,0.15,0.39,0.47,0.54,0.33,0.28,0	92.2%
TOR 79, NYK 75	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.54,0.61,0.5,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.38,0.34,0.27,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.17,0.27,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.55,0.57,0.19,0	91.1%
TOR 93, NYK 89	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.61,0.65,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.53,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.4,0.51,0.48,0.39,0.42,0.35,0.32,0.25,0.18,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.14,0.13,0.16,0.1,0.19,0.4,0.31,0.45,0.43,0.16,0	90.8%