NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	106		Excitement	7.3 [364]		MVP	Arron Afflalo (DEN): +21.5%
Denver Nuggets	113		Comeback	2.4 [793]		LVP	Kevin Martin (HOU): -21.8%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Lowry	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.13	0.03	0.03	12	62%	0.14	0	0.00	10	70%	-0.02
Chase Budinger	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.11	-0.00	0.00	7	93%	0.15	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.03	-0.02	8	62%	0.09	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.06	-0.00	5	60%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Lee	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.01	-0.03	11	50%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Luis Scola	0.04	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	19	57%	0.10	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.01
Jordan Hill	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	3	50%	-0.01	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Shane Battier	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	8	33%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Kevin Martin	-0.22	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.13,-0.15,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.17	-0.03	0.03	15	26%	-0.14	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.03

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.13	0.08	0.00	7	88%	0.21	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Gary Forbes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.07	0.00	5	58%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.08	-0.00	7	67%	0.17	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.04
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.03	0.00	5	76%	0.12	2	-0.04	7	86%	0.03
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.03	-0.03	25	52%	0.18	3	-0.10	14	93%	0.09
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.03	0.02	8	58%	0.06	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.01
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	5	40%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	0.01	9	64%	0.10	4	-0.13	7	86%	0.01
Shelden Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.05	-0.01	8	12%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.4	28.4	16.4	31.3	1.5	34.5	138.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +1.6%

DEN +34.8%

DEN +9.4%

HOU -3.4%

DEN +7.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	DEN	NBA	HOU	DEN	NBA
this game	15.4	13.8	15.5	108.2	114.1	105.7
season	15.2	14.3		109.5	110.7
opponent	15.5	14.9		106.1	107.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	14.6	15.5	17.1	14.6	15.4
DEN	13.7	15.8	12.9	13.1	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jordan Hill	24	25	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.02	0	-7	7	17.6	14.7	2.92	13.1	14.1	-0.95
Brad Miller	65	64	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.20	1	-8	9	14.4	17.4	-3.02	14.1	13.3	0.88
Kevin Martin	53	53	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.06	-5	-2	-3	14.5	16.5	-2.02	13.3	14.4	-1.13
Aaron Brooks	34	34	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.18	-1	-6	5	15.3	15.5	-0.15	14.3	13.6	0.66
Patrick Patterson	38	38	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.27	0	-7	7	16.4	14.8	1.64	14.4	13.5	0.92
Kyle Lowry	64	65	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.11	-6	-1	-5	15.5	15.3	0.15	13.6	14.3	-0.66
Courtney Lee	45	46	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.24	-2	-5	3	16.5	14.5	2.02	14.4	13.3	1.13
Luis Scola	67	67	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.12	-7	0	-7	15.1	16.1	-1.04	13.6	14.3	-0.67
Chase Budinger	39	40	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.19	-5	-2	-3	16.3	14.8	1.43	14.2	13.5	0.71
Shane Battier	61	63	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.08	-10	3	-13	14.8	16.4	-1.59	13.4	14.6	-1.14

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nene	70	69	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.26	15	-8	23	13.8	13.8	0.05	15.7	14.7	1.03
Carmelo Anthony	82	80	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.20	13	-6	19	13.8	14.0	-0.21	15.8	13.5	2.35
Chauncey Billups	56	55	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.17	10	-3	13	13.8	13.8	-0.02	15.3	15.6	-0.29
Kenyon Martin	43	44	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.11	9	-2	11	13.5	14.1	-0.52	15.9	15.1	0.81
Gary Forbes	11	11	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.10	5	2	3	12.8	14.0	-1.14	16.8	15.2	1.58
Arron Afflalo	80	80	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.22	-2	9	-11	14.0	13.1	0.96	15.6	14.7	0.85
Ty Lawson	45	45	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.14	-3	10	-13	13.6	14.0	-0.42	15.5	15.3	0.21
Chris Andersen	49	48	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.17	-4	11	-15	13.4	14.2	-0.79	14.5	16.3	-1.84
J.R. Smith	43	41	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.07	-1	8	-9	14.2	13.6	0.59	15.1	15.6	-0.47
Shelden Williams	16	17	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.04	-7	14	-21	15.5	13.5	1.99	12.8	16.0	-3.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.45,0.49,0.59,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.3,0.39,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.4,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.69,0.76,0.73,0.81,0.95,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 89, NOP 101	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.5,0.45,0.52,0.44,0.45,0.39,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.48,0.62,0.47,0.53,0.64,0.76,0.73,0.9,0.89,0.98,1,1	93.6%
TOR 85, NYK 92	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.32,0.33,0.36,0.48,0.55,0.42,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.62,0.71,0.67,0.59,0.71,0.87,0.85,0.93,0.85,0.96,1	93.2%
POR 72, GSW 78	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.57,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.42,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.68,0.58,0.66,0.57,0.67,0.73,0.64,0.71,0.54,0.75,0.85,0.91,0.92,1	92.6%