NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	90		Excitement	5.4 [755]		MVP	Gilbert Arenas (ORL): +13.6%
Orlando Magic	110		Comeback	4.0 [732]		LVP	Acie Law (GSW): -10.5%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monta Ellis	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.07,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.02	0.06	-0.03	19	49%	0.14	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Dorell Wright	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.03	-0.04	16	50%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Brandan Wright	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Dan Gadzuric	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	-0.02	0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.02	6	75%	0.05	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.09	0.00	-0.06	6	50%	0.02	5	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Ekpe Udoh	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	8	37%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Lou Amundson	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	7	31%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Stephen Curry	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	13	54%	0.01	5	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Acie Law	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	3	0%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	-0.04	0.10	-0.08	11	50%	0.17	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.11	0.02	0.01	7	76%	0.12	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.03	0.05	8	76%	0.09	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.07	-0.01	0.04	9	73%	0.12	5	-0.11	12	67%	-0.04
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	9	61%	0.11	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.01	0.02	16	62%	0.09	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	8	48%	0.00	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Quentin Richardson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	9	45%	0.00	2	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	2.5	29.2	16.5	27.4	2.6	30.2	133.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +54.2%

ORL +1.4%

GSW -5.5%

GSW -6.0%

ORL +5.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	ORL	NBA	GSW	ORL	NBA
this game	15.6	14.4	15.5	93.8	114.6	105.7
season	14.8	15.2		106.6	106.3
opponent	16.2	15.2		101.1	109.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.4	16.8	17.2	14.3	15.6
ORL	14.4	13.2	14.8	15.0	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vladimir Radmanovic	47	48	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.02	-1	-19	18	14.7	16.5	-1.72	14.9	13.8	1.12
Dan Gadzuric	17	19	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.01	-3	-17	14	17.7	15.2	2.53	14.8	14.3	0.58
Stephen Curry	68	71	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.16	-13	-7	-6	15.9	15.0	0.93	14.4	14.3	0.07
Dorell Wright	91	91	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.12	-12	-8	-4	15.6	16.2	-0.61	14.5	12.0	2.51
Lou Amundson	40	40	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.15	-13	-7	-6	15.5	15.7	-0.13	13.9	14.7	-0.77
Ekpe Udoh	42	39	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.06	-6	-14	8	14.9	16.2	-1.37	14.2	14.5	-0.24
Reggie Williams	36	35	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.10	-12	-8	-4	16.1	15.3	0.78	14.1	14.6	-0.50
Acie Law	25	23	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.09	-6	-14	8	14.7	15.9	-1.22	14.1	14.5	-0.38
Brandan Wright	36	36	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.03	-10	-10	0	16.9	14.9	2.02	14.1	14.5	-0.42
Monta Ellis	78	78	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	0.11	-24	4	-28	15.4	16.4	-1.01	14.4	14.3	0.12

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwight Howard	85	85	0.60	-0.10	0.69	-0.11	24	-4	28	14.4	14.3	0.12	15.8	14.2	1.63
Jason Richardson	78	79	0.45	0.05	0.41	-0.10	19	1	18	14.2	15.0	-0.77	15.7	15.3	0.40
JJ Redick	54	53	0.33	0.17	0.15	-0.05	13	7	6	15.5	13.0	2.53	13.8	17.9	-4.05
Ryan Anderson	38	39	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.11	6	14	-8	15.3	13.8	1.51	14.4	16.5	-2.13
Gilbert Arenas	54	55	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.13	14	6	8	14.2	14.6	-0.39	14.4	17.3	-2.87
Hedo Turkoglu	77	76	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.18	15	5	10	13.9	16.2	-2.22	16.2	13.3	2.94
Jameer Nelson	42	42	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.01	6	14	-8	14.6	14.2	0.39	17.3	14.4	2.91
Brandon Bass	50	49	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.02	2	18	-16	13.7	15.1	-1.45	17.0	14.1	2.89
Quentin Richardson	2	2	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.00	1	19	-18	6.5	14.5	-8.04	19.0	15.6	3.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.29,0.34,0.27,0.25,0.28,0.33,0.22,0.25,0.37,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.81,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 94, NYK 109	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.25,0.21,0.24,0.3,0.3,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.48,0.6,0.59,0.63,0.74,0.87,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.0%
MIL 94, DEN 105	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.27,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.62,0.69,0.63,0.7,0.75,0.7,0.87,0.94,0.86,0.84,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.9%
LAL 91, SAS 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.31,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.26,0.28,0.36,0.25,0.29,0.31,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.52,0.6,0.87,0.87,0.88,0.93,0.91,0.92,0.88,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1	93.8%