NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	86		Excitement	5.1 [835]		MVP	J.R. Smith (DEN): +6.2%
Denver Nuggets	104		Comeback	1.2 [1209]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): -28.9%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Thompson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.14	0.01	0.11	9	81%	0.04	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.01
DeMarcus Cousins	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	-0.01	-0.02	13	53%	0.03	1	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Darnell Jackson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	2	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carl Landry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	9	65%	0.07	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Donte Greene	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samuel Dalembert	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Garcia	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	0.00	0.03	10	45%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jermaine Taylor	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	6	29%	-0.06	1	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Pooh Jeter	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.13	-0.01	-0.05	4	0%	-0.06	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Omri Casspi	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	0.02	6	25%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	10	25%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyreke Evans	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.02	-0.03	17	33%	-0.05	4	-0.08	2	0%	-0.03

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.02	0.02	12	68%	0.09	2	-0.03	1	0%	-0.02
Nene	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	-0.01	0.00	8	70%	0.10	2	-0.05	7	57%	-0.03
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.04	0.03	-0.05	7	44%	0.06	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Shelden Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	-0.00	-0.01	5	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.09	-0.03	0.05	11	81%	0.12	5	-0.11	5	100%	0.03
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.01	0.03	4	64%	0.03	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Gary Forbes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	8	55%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.02
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	4	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.24,-0.26,-0.29,-0.34,-0.34,-0.31,-0.29,-0.27,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29	-0.29	-0.22	-0.03	0.04	22	33%	-0.14	6	-0.15	4	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	2.5	31.3	15.5	25.4	2.5	26.4	127.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +32.3%

DEN +14.0%

DEN +18.3%

SAC -17.9%

DEN +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DEN	NBA	SAC	DEN	NBA
this game	14.6	13.8	15.5	84.3	103.0	105.7
season	14.9	14.3		102.1	110.7
opponent	15.5	14.9		106.1	107.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	13.7	15.7	15.5	13.5	14.6
DEN	14.0	13.1	13.3	14.7	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Samuel Dalembert	18	17	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.04	3	-21	24	10.8	15.4	-4.62	13.5	13.9	-0.39
Francisco Garcia	51	49	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.00	1	-19	20	14.9	14.2	0.69	13.9	13.7	0.28
Donte Greene	7	6	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.09	-7	-11	4	16.6	14.4	2.14	12.3	13.9	-1.55
Darnell Jackson	20	19	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.08	-2	-16	14	14.4	14.6	-0.22	13.7	13.8	-0.13
Jason Thompson	58	57	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.01	-5	-13	8	14.6	14.5	0.10	13.9	13.7	0.16
Jermaine Taylor	26	26	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.05	-8	-10	2	15.2	14.4	0.88	12.6	14.2	-1.64
Beno Udrih	67	65	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.09	-4	-14	10	14.6	14.5	0.10	14.1	13.2	0.84
Omri Casspi	34	36	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.04	-8	-10	2	13.3	15.2	-1.93	13.7	13.8	-0.11
DeMarcus Cousins	55	56	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	0.17	-17	-1	-16	16.2	12.7	3.56	14.3	13.2	1.15
Tyreke Evans	82	82	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.06	-10	-8	-2	14.4	15.5	-1.15	14.1	12.6	1.43
Carl Landry	50	50	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.03	-12	-6	-6	14.4	14.7	-0.35	13.3	14.3	-1.05
Pooh Jeter	43	43	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.18	-21	3	-24	14.2	14.8	-0.60	13.9	13.7	0.24

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Arron Afflalo	60	59	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.00	13	5	8	14.1	13.4	0.68	14.6	14.5	0.08
Ty Lawson	44	46	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.04	14	4	10	13.4	14.1	-0.68	14.4	14.7	-0.30
Shelden Williams	41	39	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.03	13	5	8	14.5	13.3	1.13	15.3	14.1	1.14
J.R. Smith	56	55	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.07	14	4	10	13.5	14.1	-0.58	14.0	15.3	-1.26
Gary Forbes	27	26	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.06	12	6	6	14.7	13.5	1.24	15.7	14.2	1.44
Chris Andersen	42	43	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.04	8	10	-2	14.0	13.6	0.36	14.4	14.7	-0.32
Chauncey Billups	73	74	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.03	6	12	-6	13.5	14.7	-1.23	14.4	15.1	-0.78
Nene	70	72	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.01	6	12	-6	13.6	14.3	-0.72	14.0	15.9	-1.82
Carmelo Anthony	63	65	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.03	4	14	-10	13.6	14.2	-0.63	14.4	14.9	-0.58
Kenyon Martin	29	31	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.00	0	18	-18	14.1	13.7	0.44	16.5	13.8	2.69

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.69,0.69,0.78,0.77,0.8,0.82,0.79,0.66,0.73,0.72,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.73,0.77,0.83,0.85,0.85,0.87,0.94,1,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 94, ATL 107	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.51,0.63,0.66,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.78,0.8,0.79,0.74,0.73,0.76,0.67,0.68,0.8,0.75,0.82,0.86,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%
IND 80, POR 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.62,0.55,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.7,0.73,0.76,0.82,0.85,0.86,0.82,0.81,0.74,0.73,0.76,0.81,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.8,0.74,0.85,0.9,0.93,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.2%
NOH 86, DAL 95	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.47,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.7,0.69,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.77,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.77,0.76,0.82,0.88,0.85,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%