NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	99		Excitement	5.1 [816]		MVP	Gary Neal (SAS): +19.1%
Dallas Mavericks	93		Comeback	1.7 [754]		LVP	Jason Terry (DAL): -20.1%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Neal	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19	0.20	0.03	0.03	10	87%	0.19	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0.11	0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.03	-0.01	9	68%	0.14	2	-0.03	7	100%	0.04
Antonio McDyess	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.04	-0.01	3	87%	0.10	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
George Hill	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09	0.07	0.03	0.01	8	71%	0.11	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	11	56%	0.07	3	-0.04	5	60%	-0.01
DeJuan Blair	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ime Udoka	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Quinn	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.11	0.02	-0.01	10	32%	0.01	3	-0.09	2	0%	-0.03
Matt Bonner	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	6	17%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.02	0.01	16	41%	-0.06	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Cardinal	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.01	0.01	5	90%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.07	0.07	0.10	-0.00	0.03	21	59%	0.14	2	-0.06	9	100%	0.03
Alexis Ajinca	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	7	47%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.02	0.02	4	89%	0.07	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.03	0.01	7	62%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Steve Novak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	1	150%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	15	40%	-0.01	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.12	-0.03	0.04	16	25%	-0.19	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	3.5	28.5	19.3	25.4	2.8	40.0	144.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +38.2%

DAL -1.6%

SAS +12.9%

DAL -2.3%

SAS +2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DAL	NBA	SAS	DAL	NBA
this game	16.1	14.5	15.5	105.3	98.9	105.7
season	15.5	15.7		109.3	108.5
opponent	15.7	15.2		103.8	103.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.2	16.8	16.1	15.5	16.1
DAL	13.2	16.7	15.2	13.3	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
George Hill	64	64	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.10	20	-14	34	16.5	15.4	1.15	14.8	13.7	1.11
Antonio McDyess	29	30	0.61	-0.11	0.72	-0.01	21	-15	36	17.2	15.7	1.53	15.5	14.0	1.44
Matt Bonner	49	51	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.17	11	-5	16	15.6	16.7	-1.12	15.1	13.7	1.37
Gary Neal	43	44	0.46	0.04	0.41	-0.04	17	-11	28	15.3	16.8	-1.52	14.8	14.2	0.58
Manu Ginobili	60	59	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.15	8	-2	10	16.0	16.4	-0.37	14.5	14.5	-0.04
Richard Jefferson	60	60	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.40	-5	11	-16	16.8	15.0	1.80	14.5	14.5	-0.02
Ime Udoka	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	9	-12	2.0	16.3	-14.30	8.0	14.6	-6.56
Chris Quinn	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	9	-12	2.0	16.3	-14.30	8.0	14.6	-6.56
Tim Duncan	64	63	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.24	-12	18	-30	15.9	16.7	-0.81	14.1	15.2	-1.10
Tony Parker	74	74	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.39	-17	23	-40	15.9	17.1	-1.21	13.9	16.6	-2.68
DeJuan Blair	25	23	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.03	-7	13	-20	17.8	15.6	2.19	13.7	14.7	-1.05

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeShawn Stevenson	31	32	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.03	5	-11	16	13.6	14.9	-1.36	16.7	15.9	0.77
Steve Novak	4	4	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-10	14	11.7	14.6	-2.86	0.7	16.8	-16.08
Jason Kidd	76	76	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.28	7	-13	20	13.8	17.4	-3.59	16.1	16.3	-0.23
Tyson Chandler	72	73	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.36	9	-15	24	14.0	16.0	-1.97	16.0	16.8	-0.85
Caron Butler	79	78	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.41	10	-16	26	13.8	18.3	-4.57	16.5	14.6	1.84
Brian Cardinal	56	56	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.01	-8	2	-10	14.7	14.2	0.47	16.6	15.6	1.00
Alexis Ajinca	22	21	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	0.04	-15	9	-24	16.0	14.0	1.97	16.8	16.0	0.85
Jose Juan Barea	25	26	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.06	-13	7	-20	16.8	13.6	3.20	15.5	16.4	-0.90
Jason Terry	59	58	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.28	-11	5	-16	14.9	13.9	1.01	16.0	16.3	-0.30
Shawn Marion	46	46	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.10	-18	12	-30	15.7	13.3	2.45	16.7	15.6	1.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.29,0.21,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.24,0.26,0.32,0.41,0.3,0.34,0.4,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.32,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.03,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 93, IND 89	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.59,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.24,0.25,0.29,0.24,0.19,0.23,0.25,0.27,0.31,0.34,0.39,0.45,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.11,0.07,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.19,0.1,0.02,0.02,0	93.2%
ORL 122, CHA 114	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.37,0.42,0.31,0.25,0.28,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.28,0.27,0.3,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.44,0.39,0.29,0.29,0.22,0.23,0.22,0.25,0.15,0.16,0.14,0.33,0.27,0.17,0.12,0.01,0.02,0,0.01,0,0	93.0%
TOR 98, WAS 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.31,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.3,0.26,0.15,0.15,0.26,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	92.6%