NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	98		Excitement	5.9 [618]		MVP	Vince Carter (TOR): +17.5%
Washington Wizards	92		Comeback	1.2 [1036]		LVP	Charles Oakley (TOR): -17.9%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17	0.11	0.02	-0.04	23	65%	0.26	3	-0.09	6	83%	0.02
Morris Peterson	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.04	-0.01	19	53%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Childs	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.01	8	69%	0.11	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Alvin Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	-0.01	-0.06	14	36%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Keon Clark	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.01	0.02	8	61%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Antonio Davis	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	12	42%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Charles Oakley	-0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.16	-0.03	-0.01	9	0%	-0.16	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Courtney Alexander	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	23	63%	0.16	4	-0.10	6	83%	0.00
Michael Smith	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0.01	12	60%	0.01	2	-0.04	6	33%	-0.06
David Vanterpool	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.02	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Popeye Jones	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	0.02	11	42%	-0.04	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Mike Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	5	25%	-0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Laron Profit	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.04	0.02	12	50%	-0.03	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.03
Tyrone Nesby	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-0.04	0.03	15	38%	-0.11	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	2.4	28.2	15.0	25.2	2.7	27.1	122.0
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +36.9%

WAS -9.2%

TOR +8.4%

TOR +11.9%

TOR +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	WAS	NBA	TOR	WAS	NBA
this game	15.8	14.4	15.5	103.2	95.8	100.9
season	15.8	15.2		103.7	98.6
opponent	15.2	15.4		105.5	101.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.1	14.8	14.4	19.4	15.8
WAS	13.1	14.6	15.0	14.9	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vince Carter	85	86	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.16	16	-10	26	15.1	21.4	-6.26	15.2	7.2	8.00
Alvin Williams	77	80	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.17	13	-7	20	15.1	18.6	-3.47	14.5	13.9	0.59
Keon Clark	48	50	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.26	8	-2	10	15.6	16.0	-0.40	14.9	13.8	1.08
Morris Peterson	70	68	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.32	-3	9	-12	16.1	15.0	1.03	13.7	16.0	-2.36
Antonio Davis	62	63	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.08	5	1	4	16.5	14.4	2.11	13.7	15.7	-2.03
Chris Childs	46	47	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.28	-2	8	-10	17.0	14.7	2.28	14.5	14.3	0.20
Charles Oakley	64	63	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.19	-2	8	-10	15.8	15.7	0.09	14.6	13.8	0.79
Jerome Williams	23	23	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.15	-5	11	-16	15.6	15.9	-0.25	12.8	14.9	-2.08

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyrone Nesby	71	71	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.32	10	-16	26	14.2	14.9	-0.70	16.7	13.0	3.75
Laron Profit	74	74	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.30	4	-10	14	12.8	19.5	-6.72	16.4	13.8	2.62
Popeye Jones	84	85	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.37	-1	-5	4	13.7	19.0	-5.30	16.5	9.6	6.93
Michael Smith	90	89	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.32	-3	-3	0	14.6	10.7	3.94	16.0	13.5	2.46
Mike Smith	31	28	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.01	-15	9	-24	16.2	13.5	2.65	11.7	17.5	-5.74
David Vanterpool	35	34	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.01	-17	11	-28	17.0	12.8	4.19	13.7	17.0	-3.22
Courtney Alexander	95	94	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.30	-8	2	-10	14.5	3.0	11.48	15.8	18.0	-2.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.31,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.3,0.26,0.15,0.15,0.26,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 89, MIL 78	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.32,0.29,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.25,0.26,0.34,0.3,0.13,0.15,0.1,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	94.7%
NYK 88, MIN 79	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.36,0.3,0.25,0.27,0.4,0.34,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.26,0.18,0.19,0.16,0.09,0.05,0.09,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0	94.7%
PHX 116, IND 96	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.26,0.27,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.32,0.37,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.28,0.24,0.29,0.18,0.22,0.13,0.18,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.5%