NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	106		Excitement	6.3 [559]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +31.3%
Oklahoma City Thunder	114		Comeback	2.4 [804]		LVP	J.R. Smith (DEN): -6.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.21	-0.01	0.07	16	77%	0.22	2	-0.09	7	100%	0.04
Nene	0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.12	0.01	0.03	13	64%	0.13	1	-0.03	7	71%	-0.01
Ty Lawson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.00	-0.03	13	63%	0.17	4	-0.12	4	75%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	8	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Gary Forbes	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	4	60%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Al Harrington	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	5	90%	0.16	6	-0.18	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Arron Afflalo	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	4	50%	-0.03	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.01

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.22,0.24,0.27,0.34,0.32,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.31	0.26	0.09	0.04	20	80%	0.45	5	-0.13	15	80%	0.02
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.08,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.17	0.04	0.04	11	70%	0.16	0	0.00	8	87%	0.03
Eric Maynor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.03	0.08	-0.00	5	60%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.00	19	42%	0.04	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.01
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	2	100%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	67%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jeff Green	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.03	0.00	15	36%	-0.00	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Nenad Krstic	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	4	50%	-0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.0	2.8	32.7	18.8	32.0	3.6	32.5	153.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN -4.2%

OKC +16.1%

OKC +9.5%

OKC +29.8%

DEN -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	OKC	NBA	DEN	OKC	NBA
this game	15.0	15.0	15.5	111.6	117.5	105.7
season	14.3	15.0		110.7	108.8
opponent	15.6	15.5		105.4	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.6	16.4	15.2	14.9	15.0
OKC	14.7	13.6	13.6	18.5	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Harrington	46	45	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.08	-3	-5	2	14.4	15.6	-1.16	15.3	14.7	0.60
Nene	70	73	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.26	3	-11	14	15.6	13.2	2.40	14.9	15.2	-0.24
Chauncey Billups	76	78	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.20	-1	-7	6	15.2	14.2	1.00	14.8	15.9	-1.13
Chris Andersen	31	32	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.08	-6	-2	-4	14.3	15.4	-1.12	14.7	15.1	-0.45
Arron Afflalo	59	59	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.05	-7	-1	-6	15.4	14.4	1.00	14.2	16.2	-1.96
J.R. Smith	52	55	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.13	-6	-2	-4	15.6	14.3	1.25	15.7	14.0	1.75
Ty Lawson	65	64	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.30	-1	-7	6	14.3	16.5	-2.23	16.2	12.7	3.47
Kenyon Martin	41	42	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.10	-10	2	-12	15.6	14.6	0.97	15.0	15.0	0.02
Gary Forbes	35	37	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.13	-9	1	-10	13.9	15.6	-1.69	13.5	15.9	-2.43

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Durant	84	82	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.25	10	-2	12	14.7	17.0	-2.32	14.6	17.8	-3.29
Jeff Green	77	77	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.17	6	2	4	15.0	15.0	-0.08	16.1	10.4	5.63
Russell Westbrook	68	68	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.19	4	4	0	14.7	15.6	-0.85	15.6	13.5	2.08
Thabo Sefolosha	33	30	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.14	5	3	2	13.9	15.5	-1.59	16.6	14.3	2.32
James Harden	56	55	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.24	1	7	-6	16.6	12.8	3.87	14.0	16.4	-2.36
Nenad Krstic	51	48	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.00	7	1	6	13.5	16.6	-3.12	15.0	15.0	0.06
Eric Maynor	29	27	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.08	4	4	0	15.6	14.7	0.85	13.5	15.6	-2.08
Serge Ibaka	35	36	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.34	-6	14	-20	17.5	13.5	3.99	14.9	15.1	-0.24
Nick Collison	27	27	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.05	4	4	0	14.7	15.1	-0.40	13.5	15.6	-2.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.36,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.41,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.63,0.56,0.52,0.62,0.78,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.74,0.76,0.78,0.8,0.93,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 95, IND 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.62,0.74,0.62,0.75,0.88,0.79,0.65,0.71,0.8,0.85,0.94,0.97,1	93.9%
POR 90, BOS 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.47,0.5,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.31,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.61,0.6,0.7,0.82,0.86,0.86,0.85,0.79,0.89,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.98,0.99,1	92.7%
CHA 92, IND 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.38,0.31,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.37,0.45,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.71,0.72,0.81,0.9,0.86,0.8,0.81,0.74,0.76,0.72,0.86,0.93,0.94,0.96,1	92.6%