NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	94		Excitement	6.9 [443]		MVP	JJ Redick (ORL): +31.6%
Denver Nuggets	111		Comeback	1.5 [578]		LVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): -28.2%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
JJ Redick	0.32	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.28,0.28,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.25	0.09	0.02	12	94%	0.37	1	-0.05	7	71%	-0.01
Vince Carter	0.17	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.06	0.07	-0.04	15	53%	0.17	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Dwight Howard	0.04	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.02	15	60%	0.12	4	-0.08	5	60%	-0.00
Rashard Lewis	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	9	40%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Marcin Gortat	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.00	3	33%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.01	11	45%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.25,-0.25,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28	-0.19	-0.11	-0.01	10	18%	-0.14	4	-0.14	2	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.07	0.09	-0.01	10	60%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.12	0.08	0.03	10	75%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.05	0.02	21	66%	0.31	6	-0.16	11	64%	-0.02
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.05	-0.01	12	59%	0.17	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.05	0.00	13	55%	0.12	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Gary Forbes	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shelden Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.04	-0.01	4	62%	0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Melvin Ely	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	7	62%	0.02	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	3.3	29.1	15.7	26.5	2.4	33.4	133.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +40.3%

DEN +5.6%

DEN +15.5%

ORL -5.7%

ORL -5.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DEN	NBA	ORL	DEN	NBA
this game	15.6	15.7	15.5	102.2	120.7	105.7
season	15.2	14.3		106.3	110.7
opponent	15.5	16.2		106.1	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.1	16.8	15.4	16.0	15.6
DEN	17.2	13.2	15.3	17.4	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Bass	52	51	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.01	2	-19	21	15.2	16.1	-0.91	16.0	15.4	0.59
Marcin Gortat	50	51	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.10	5	-22	27	14.5	16.9	-2.34	15.1	16.5	-1.35
Jason Williams	22	21	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.08	1	-18	19	12.0	16.7	-4.65	16.0	15.6	0.30
Vince Carter	63	61	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.10	-8	-9	1	15.2	16.4	-1.26	16.3	14.5	1.86
Jameer Nelson	70	71	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.08	-18	1	-19	16.7	12.0	4.65	15.6	16.0	-0.30
JJ Redick	74	74	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.07	-17	0	-17	15.2	17.1	-1.89	15.4	17.2	-1.80
Rashard Lewis	60	62	-0.63	0.13	-0.77	0.04	-23	6	-29	16.5	13.9	2.58	15.5	16.1	-0.57
Dwight Howard	69	69	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	0.03	-27	10	-37	16.6	12.4	4.20	16.0	15.0	0.96

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Arron Afflalo	71	70	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.00	23	-6	29	16.3	13.7	2.60	16.6	12.5	4.12
Nene	63	62	0.51	-0.01	0.53	-0.04	19	-2	21	15.9	15.3	0.64	16.8	13.1	3.69
Carmelo Anthony	71	74	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.06	17	0	17	15.7	15.8	-0.06	15.8	14.8	0.94
Al Harrington	58	59	0.42	0.08	0.33	-0.08	17	0	17	15.4	16.3	-0.87	14.7	17.1	-2.39
Anthony Carter	31	29	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.11	5	12	-7	16.4	15.4	1.06	14.3	16.2	-1.91
Ty Lawson	62	64	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.08	11	6	5	15.6	16.0	-0.42	16.0	14.7	1.31
J.R. Smith	43	42	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.15	-2	19	-21	15.0	16.3	-1.30	14.2	16.7	-2.53
Melvin Ely	16	18	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.03	-1	18	-19	14.3	16.0	-1.70	13.1	16.2	-3.15
Gary Forbes	4	2	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	-0.01	-2	19	-21	9.0	16.0	-7.02	16.0	15.6	0.42
Shelden Williams	41	40	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.01	-2	19	-21	16.5	15.1	1.35	15.8	15.4	0.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.67,0.73,0.67,0.63,0.54,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.48,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.57,0.43,0.53,0.7,0.6,0.87,0.93,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 76, HOU 86	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.51,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.69,0.81,0.84,0.91,0.96,1,1,1	93.3%
IND 85, BOS 95	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.5,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.34,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.53,0.64,0.8,0.91,0.99,1,1,1,1	92.6%
NOH 85, PHX 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.38,0.43,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.83,0.9,0.96,1,1,1	92.4%