NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	106		Excitement	4.0 [1059]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +12.3%
Golden State Warriors	84		Comeback	1.4 [1161]		LVP	Andris Biedrins (GSW): -9.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.13	0.02	0.03	20	64%	0.17	4	-0.05	13	77%	-0.01
Carlos Arroyo	0.12	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.10	0.02	0.00	4	112%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	-0.01	0.01	-0.09	4	75%	0.09	3	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	4	64%	0.05	2	-0.04	3	33%	-0.02
Eddie House	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	-0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.07	-0.01	0.06	18	64%	0.07	4	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01
Juwan Howard	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.09	-0.01	0.11	5	90%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.01	-0.01	0.05	14	53%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Erick Dampier	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.11	-0.00	-0.02	6	0%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	0.00	0.04	5	70%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ekpe Udoh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	18	50%	0.04	3	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Acie Law	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
David Lee	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	14	43%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Lou Amundson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	5	50%	-0.02	2	-0.01	6	67%	-0.01
Reggie Williams	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	11	48%	0.01	2	-0.06	5	80%	-0.00
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.06	-0.04	15	40%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	0.01	5	20%	-0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.7	3.0	31.8	17.6	30.5	3.5	27.5	141.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +40.2%

MIA +3.1%

MIA +2.8%

MIA +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	GSW	NBA	MIA	GSW	NBA
this game	15.4	16.3	15.5	116.5	92.3	105.7
season	16.0	14.8		109.0	106.6
opponent	15.2	15.6		109.0	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.7	16.3	12.7	17.0	15.4
GSW	17.8	15.7	15.5	16.4	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	60	60	0.57	-0.07	0.65	-0.07	22	0	22	14.3	17.4	-3.07	16.2	16.5	-0.25
Dwyane Wade	65	66	0.52	-0.02	0.53	-0.36	30	-8	38	14.8	16.7	-1.81	17.3	13.6	3.76
Carlos Arroyo	36	36	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.05	15	7	8	14.1	16.2	-2.16	17.6	15.4	2.24
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	40	39	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.08	19	3	16	14.4	16.1	-1.63	17.5	15.4	2.06
Chris Bosh	62	64	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.30	22	0	22	15.4	15.3	0.08	16.9	14.7	2.20
Erick Dampier	35	37	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.14	8	14	-6	15.9	15.1	0.80	15.4	16.9	-1.48
Juwan Howard	21	20	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.14	-2	24	-26	16.1	15.1	1.01	14.0	16.9	-2.93
Mario Chalmers	53	53	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.13	5	17	-12	16.1	14.3	1.84	15.5	17.3	-1.81
Joel Anthony	24	22	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.09	-3	25	-28	15.4	15.3	0.07	15.9	16.4	-0.56
Eddie House	8	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	26	-30	17.2	15.2	2.07	15.1	16.4	-1.24
James Jones	51	51	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.03	-2	24	-26	17.1	13.2	3.90	15.0	17.9	-2.84

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Gadzuric	13	13	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.06	4	-26	30	15.3	16.4	-1.14	16.8	15.1	1.73
Ekpe Udoh	5	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-26	30	14.2	16.4	-2.21	17.7	15.2	2.47
Jeremy Lin	5	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-26	30	14.2	16.4	-2.21	17.7	15.2	2.47
Acie Law	34	34	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.13	-5	-17	12	14.2	17.5	-3.32	17.0	14.4	2.61
Lou Amundson	40	39	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.07	-5	-17	12	14.7	17.5	-2.74	14.9	15.7	-0.77
Vladimir Radmanovic	22	23	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.03	-4	-18	14	13.2	17.3	-4.03	14.5	15.6	-1.13
Dorell Wright	79	78	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.07	-17	-5	-12	16.2	16.7	-0.53	15.7	13.2	2.58
Andris Biedrins	46	46	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.00	-15	-7	-8	17.4	15.2	2.19	14.9	15.8	-0.91
Monta Ellis	79	79	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	0.18	-22	0	-22	17.2	10.5	6.66	15.5	14.7	0.80
David Lee	60	60	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	0.30	-28	6	-34	17.8	13.3	4.54	14.6	16.9	-2.29
Reggie Williams	72	71	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	0.23	-26	4	-30	16.7	14.9	1.76	14.9	17.1	-2.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.35,0.34,0.2,0.11,0.08,0.13,0.07,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 109, PHI 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.46,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.43,0.31,0.25,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%
PHI 102, PHX 81	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.25,0.15,0.17,0.1,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.4%
DEN 113, UTA 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.36,0.33,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.28,0.18,0.15,0.14,0.16,0.1,0.06,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.4%