NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	94		Excitement	7.1 [402]		MVP	Hakim Warrick (PHX): +16.4%
Phoenix Suns	100		Comeback	5.7 [242]		LVP	Jason Richardson (PHX): -10.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.05	0.01	14	42%	0.04	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.05
Nene	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.04	-0.00	9	64%	0.06	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Ty Lawson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	10	41%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Shelden Williams	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04	-0.13	0.04	-0.05	19	43%	0.13	6	-0.17	8	75%	0.03
Arron Afflalo	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	13	52%	0.06	3	-0.11	3	67%	-0.01
Al Harrington	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	15	42%	-0.02	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.03
Gary Forbes	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	6	33%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.15,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.10	0.06	0.00	9	81%	0.28	3	-0.11	8	87%	-0.00
Channing Frye	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.06	0.01	11	65%	0.14	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Josh Childress	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0.04,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.05	-0.00	5	83%	0.16	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.02
Steve Nash	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.04	0.05	-0.02	17	42%	0.07	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Grant Hill	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	11	54%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.04	0.01	10	39%	0.00	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Earl Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jared Dudley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.00	6	17%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	16	33%	-0.08	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.8	1.8	26.3	16.4	27.9	2.4	33.4	137.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +37.0%

DEN -13.0%

DEN -7.3%

PHX +18.4%

PHX +14.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	PHX	NBA	DEN	PHX	NBA
this game	14.2	14.4	15.5	93.1	100.0	105.7
season	14.3	14.5		110.7	108.0
opponent	15.7	15.5		109.0	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.0	14.4	14.7	15.0	14.2
PHX	12.8	15.0	13.5	16.9	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Forbes	49	49	0.17	-0.67	0.85	-0.09	9	-15	24	13.7	14.7	-1.02	14.5	14.3	0.22
Carmelo Anthony	80	80	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.10	1	-7	8	13.5	17.1	-3.61	14.6	13.5	1.09
Shelden Williams	35	33	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.02	-4	-2	-2	14.7	14.0	0.73	12.7	15.3	-2.62
Ty Lawson	56	55	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.18	0	-6	6	14.2	14.3	-0.13	14.7	14.1	0.64
Al Harrington	72	70	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.27	-4	-2	-2	13.7	15.7	-1.99	14.8	13.4	1.41
Chauncey Billups	68	66	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.27	-7	1	-8	14.0	14.6	-0.59	14.3	14.6	-0.34
Arron Afflalo	85	86	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.31	-9	3	-12	14.6	12.5	2.06	14.6	13.4	1.24
Nene	60	61	-0.89	0.39	-1.29	-0.43	-16	10	-26	15.9	11.8	4.05	14.1	14.9	-0.74

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Channing Frye	81	81	0.78	-0.28	1.07	0.40	13	-7	20	14.2	15.2	-0.91	14.8	12.0	2.73
Hedo Turkoglu	69	70	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.28	16	-10	26	14.4	14.5	-0.09	15.1	12.4	2.67
Hakim Warrick	54	53	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.44	3	3	0	15.5	13.1	2.39	13.5	15.1	-1.57
Goran Dragic	29	29	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.24	2	4	-2	14.7	14.3	0.38	14.7	14.0	0.68
Grant Hill	56	57	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.07	8	-2	10	14.0	15.0	-1.00	14.5	14.0	0.50
Josh Childress	44	44	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.26	-2	8	-10	15.0	14.0	1.00	14.0	14.5	-0.50
Steve Nash	71	72	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.08	4	2	2	14.3	14.7	-0.38	14.0	14.7	-0.68
Jason Richardson	58	60	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.15	4	2	2	13.2	16.1	-2.89	14.4	14.0	0.32
Earl Clark	12	13	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.02	-5	11	-16	14.0	14.5	-0.48	11.6	14.6	-3.01
Jared Dudley	26	26	-0.40	0.90	-1.30	-0.02	-13	19	-32	15.7	14.0	1.67	12.9	14.7	-1.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.46,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.5,0.47,0.4,0.46,0.42,0.34,0.29,0.33,0.27,0.25,0.27,0.24,0.19,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.23,0.3,0.24,0.24,0.32,0.26,0.31,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.22,0.26,0.18,0.29,0.37,0.41,0.71,0.73,0.8,0.93,0.96,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 81, ORL 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.43,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.18,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.34,0.29,0.36,0.19,0.18,0.3,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.54,0.66,0.53,0.79,0.85,0.99,1	91.6%
MEM 98, POR 110	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.26,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.27,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.3,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.37,0.47,0.64,0.71,0.9,0.75,0.93,0.98,1,1	91.6%
UTA 94, DEN 101	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.3,0.32,0.24,0.25,0.19,0.2,0.22,0.26,0.21,0.2,0.3,0.24,0.35,0.48,0.41,0.27,0.29,0.44,0.46,0.26,0.34,0.43,0.37,0.41,0.71,0.73,0.61,0.95,0.96,0.96,1	91.5%