NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	112		Excitement	7.9 [251]		MVP	Shannon Brown (LAL): +28.6%
Denver Nuggets	118		Comeback	7.1 [119]		LVP	Pau Gasol (LAL): -18.2%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shannon Brown	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.28,0.28,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.11	0.16	-0.01	14	61%	0.29	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Metta World Peace	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08	0.09	0.00	0.01	11	69%	0.11	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Derrick Caracter	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Derek Fisher	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	-0.00	7	57%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Odom	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	6	21%	-0.07	1	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kobe Bryant	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.02	-0.10	0.00	32	44%	-0.03	2	-0.09	13	69%	-0.03
Matt Barnes	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.07	-0.09	-0.02	7	43%	-0.03	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	-0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.08	-0.11	-0.00	17	42%	-0.02	3	-0.16	6	83%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.14	0.12	0.04	25	60%	0.26	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.09	0.11	0.00	6	87%	0.25	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Nene	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.05	-0.02	13	60%	0.16	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.05	0.00	10	61%	0.15	1	-0.04	8	75%	-0.03
Gary Forbes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	5	55%	0.06	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Shelden Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01	3	56%	0.03	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	11	50%	0.03	2	-0.07	8	100%	0.05
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	8	41%	0.01	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.01
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	7	36%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	3.4	35.5	20.5	27.4	3.4	31.6	148.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +47.6%

DEN +12.4%

LAL -20.2%

DEN +9.2%

DEN +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	DEN	NBA	LAL	DEN	NBA
this game	15.2	14.1	15.5	114.3	120.4	105.7
season	15.9	14.3		108.8	110.7
opponent	15.5	15.5		106.1	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	13.6	13.7	17.3	16.8	15.2
DEN	16.4	12.0	16.2	12.7	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lamar Odom	51	51	0.28	-0.78	1.06	-0.01	10	-16	26	15.3	15.1	0.18	15.0	13.2	1.79
Derrick Caracter	9	8	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.02	-1	-5	4	13.6	15.4	-1.86	12.6	14.3	-1.65
Kobe Bryant	82	82	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.27	4	-10	14	15.5	14.1	1.34	14.5	12.4	2.04
Derek Fisher	63	64	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.34	5	-11	16	15.5	14.9	0.60	14.7	13.1	1.52
Matt Barnes	30	29	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.09	-7	1	-8	14.4	15.6	-1.17	13.2	14.6	-1.38
Steve Blake	35	34	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.02	-11	5	-16	14.9	15.5	-0.60	13.1	14.7	-1.52
Pau Gasol	89	90	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.34	-5	-1	-4	15.4	13.6	1.86	14.3	12.6	1.65
Metta World Peace	84	85	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.29	-9	3	-12	15.3	14.8	0.54	14.2	14.1	0.08
Shannon Brown	47	47	-0.78	0.28	-1.06	-0.31	-16	10	-26	15.1	15.3	-0.18	13.2	15.0	-1.79

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ty Lawson	51	49	0.79	-0.29	1.09	0.32	16	-10	26	12.4	16.0	-3.61	14.7	15.8	-1.10
J.R. Smith	56	56	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.13	17	-11	28	13.1	15.5	-2.46	15.4	15.1	0.26
Nene	63	61	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.27	6	0	6	14.6	13.3	1.38	15.8	14.4	1.35
Carmelo Anthony	83	81	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.24	4	2	2	14.4	12.9	1.51	15.5	13.8	1.72
Gary Forbes	35	37	0.33	0.17	0.17	-0.02	12	-6	18	13.0	14.8	-1.73	14.6	15.6	-1.04
Arron Afflalo	67	68	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.43	-6	12	-18	14.7	12.9	1.77	15.2	15.4	-0.27
Al Harrington	47	50	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.06	2	4	-2	14.0	14.3	-0.23	14.8	15.7	-0.91
Chauncey Billups	59	59	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.16	-10	16	-26	15.0	12.8	2.15	15.2	15.3	-0.15
Shelden Williams	29	29	-0.31	0.81	-1.13	0.01	-11	17	-28	16.0	13.4	2.64	16.0	14.9	1.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.38,0.35,0.4,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.37,0.26,0.23,0.22,0.15,0.14,0.23,0.26,0.22,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.19,0.13,0.29,0.47,0.63,0.64,0.41,0.46,0.68,0.89,0.99,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 82, LAC 91	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.21,0.23,0.17,0.28,0.2,0.19,0.15,0.1,0.19,0.26,0.43,0.58,0.73,0.65,0.66,0.75,0.92,0.91,0.96,1	92.7%
DET 86, PHX 89	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.34,0.37,0.45,0.34,0.29,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.3,0.27,0.19,0.16,0.28,0.22,0.19,0.11,0.17,0.22,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.3,0.38,0.33,0.47,0.63,0.41,0.29,0.34,0.53,0.85,0.96,0.96,1	91.4%
OKC 102, WAS 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.39,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.37,0.32,0.28,0.22,0.19,0.27,0.23,0.2,0.28,0.31,0.22,0.25,0.34,0.38,0.48,0.37,0.37,0.59,0.65,0.72,0.75,0.9,0.92,0.91,1	90.0%