NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	107		Excitement	7.2 [380]		MVP	Luis Scola (HOU): +27.9%
Houston Rockets	94		Comeback	2.5 [259]		LVP	Kyle Lowry (HOU): -22.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Harrington	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14	0.11	0.07	0.04	24	55%	0.14	0	0.00	3	100%	0.05
J.R. Smith	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.04	0.09	-0.00	8	59%	0.14	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Nene	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	0.01	9	55%	0.09	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Chauncey Billups	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.03	0.08	0.01	8	48%	0.09	2	-0.06	11	91%	0.03
Arron Afflalo	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.00	5	56%	0.04	0	0.00	8	75%	-0.01
Shelden Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Gary Forbes	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	0.03	-0.05	0.08	20	52%	-0.04	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.03
Ty Lawson	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	0.01	-0.00	7	29%	-0.02	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luis Scola	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.18,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.19	0.09	0.00	16	76%	0.31	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.00
Courtney Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.06	0.00	3	117%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chase Budinger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.02	9	44%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Yao Ming	0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	10	64%	0.10	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.02
Jordan Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.05	0.02	18	50%	0.00	2	-0.07	6	100%	0.06
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	0.00	1	33%	-0.02	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.04
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	6	17%	-0.07	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.06	-0.07	0.02	9	45%	-0.05	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.17	-0.05	-0.00	7	6%	-0.13	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.2	2.7	30.5	15.8	25.4	2.6	34.3	141.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU -1.6%

DEN +11.4%

DEN +12.0%

DEN +26.9%

DEN +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	HOU	NBA	DEN	HOU	NBA
this game	15.2	13.6	15.5	107.0	94.0	105.7
season	14.3	15.2		110.7	109.5
opponent	14.9	15.5		107.5	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.8	14.7	17.1	15.5	15.2
HOU	16.2	11.9	14.2	12.2	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Harrington	62	62	0.86	-0.36	1.22	0.24	21	-8	29	15.0	15.7	-0.67	13.0	14.4	-1.39
Carmelo Anthony	75	77	0.55	-0.05	0.59	-0.01	19	-6	25	15.2	15.4	-0.21	13.5	13.7	-0.12
Ty Lawson	43	43	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.06	9	4	5	14.6	15.7	-1.07	12.7	14.2	-1.59
Arron Afflalo	72	72	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.08	8	5	3	15.0	15.7	-0.71	13.6	13.5	0.13
Chauncey Billups	67	66	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.08	2	11	-9	15.4	15.0	0.36	14.5	11.8	2.68
J.R. Smith	35	35	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.19	-2	15	-17	15.8	15.0	0.82	12.7	14.0	-1.35
Shelden Williams	69	70	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.03	4	9	-5	14.9	15.9	-0.96	13.5	13.7	-0.20
Nene	69	68	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.02	1	12	-11	15.8	14.1	1.70	14.1	12.4	1.70
Gary Forbes	8	7	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.04	3	10	-7	17.5	15.0	2.46	14.9	13.5	1.39

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jordan Hill	7	8	0.05	-0.55	0.61	0.02	1	-14	15	9.1	13.9	-4.75	21.0	14.7	6.26
Brad Miller	31	31	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.12	1	-14	15	14.7	13.1	1.62	15.7	15.0	0.68
Kevin Martin	75	76	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.01	-4	-9	5	14.0	12.4	1.60	15.3	14.9	0.43
Charles Hayes	33	34	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.04	-6	-7	1	12.8	13.9	-1.15	15.4	15.2	0.26
Kyle Lowry	43	41	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.03	-4	-9	5	14.4	12.9	1.51	15.0	15.4	-0.37
Chase Budinger	39	39	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.03	-4	-9	5	12.0	14.5	-2.52	15.8	14.9	0.95
Luis Scola	78	77	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.15	-3	-10	7	13.8	12.7	1.13	15.5	14.3	1.22
Shane Battier	61	61	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.09	-9	-4	-5	14.5	12.0	2.52	14.9	15.8	-0.95
Aaron Brooks	54	56	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.03	-11	-2	-9	13.0	14.3	-1.30	15.6	14.8	0.75
Courtney Lee	28	27	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.17	-7	-6	-1	12.3	14.0	-1.72	14.6	15.5	-0.89
Yao Ming	51	50	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.03	-19	6	-25	13.6	13.5	0.10	13.5	17.0	-3.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.56,0.58,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.38,0.43,0.25,0.14,0.15,0.21,0.35,0.47,0.19,0.03,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 92, MIA 79	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.62,0.56,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.69,0.65,0.73,0.73,0.68,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.34,0.43,0.33,0.24,0.27,0.21,0.29,0.39,0.32,0.12,0.01,0,0	93.0%
GSW 107, DAL 104	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.51,0.52,0.64,0.68,0.52,0.52,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.24,0.32,0.26,0.46,0.39,0.25,0.02,0.01,0.08,0	91.9%
CLE 118, ORL 111	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.62,0.54,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.61,0.67,0.59,0.58,0.68,0.65,0.49,0.6,0.52,0.5,0.34,0.34,0.18,0.07,0.14,0.12,0.17,0.03,0,0.01,0,0	91.7%