NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	118		Excitement	6.4 [492]		MVP	Larry Hughes (CLE): +42.2%
Orlando Magic	111		Comeback	2.4 [151]		LVP	Adonal Foyle (ORL): -8.1%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Larry Hughes	0.42	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.15,0.15,0.23,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.42,0.42	0.31	0.17	0.06	19	78%	0.45	1	-0.03	13	92%	0.05
LeBron James	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.07	0.07	-0.01	15	64%	0.29	5	-0.13	15	80%	0.01
Devin Brown	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.01	0.00	5	85%	0.13	1	-0.03	3	67%	0.00
Damon Jones	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	5	36%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Ira Newble	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.01	7	56%	0.03	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.03
Donyell Marshall	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.03	-0.01	10	41%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Dwayne Jones	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.02	1	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Drew Gooden	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	8	62%	0.03	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.08	0.09	0.00	3	100%	0.17	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.02	-0.04	13	58%	0.14	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brian Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	4	62%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	6	50%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.00	-0.00	11	52%	0.04	0	0.00	9	44%	-0.04
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.11	-0.01	0.08	17	68%	0.10	3	-0.09	3	33%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.02	14	58%	0.08	5	-0.11	10	80%	0.01
Maurice Evans	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	12	38%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	5	33%	-0.04	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.5	29.4	16.6	32.2	2.8	39.0	145.0
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +23.4%

CLE +19.5%

CLE +8.1%

ORL -7.1%

CLE +6.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	ORL	NBA	CLE	ORL	NBA
this game	16.1	14.6	15.4	125.5	118.1	105.7
season	16.4	15.1		104.0	109.9
opponent	15.6	15.2		104.6	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	17.1	19.4	12.1	16.7	16.1
ORL	12.9	16.6	14.5	14.6	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devin Brown	55	55	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.31	14	-7	21	15.2	17.3	-2.05	14.3	14.8	-0.50
LeBron James	87	88	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.25	10	-3	13	15.5	23.7	-8.24	14.4	16.8	-2.44
Donyell Marshall	30	29	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.13	13	-6	19	16.7	15.8	0.95	16.0	13.9	2.14
Larry Hughes	81	82	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.35	0	7	-7	16.0	16.5	-0.44	14.1	17.9	-3.86
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	45	44	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.10	6	1	5	18.1	14.3	3.80	16.1	13.2	2.98
Dwayne Jones	48	48	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.21	0	7	-7	14.1	18.2	-4.09	13.2	16.0	-2.79
Damon Jones	18	15	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.02	4	3	1	15.8	16.2	-0.38	16.3	14.2	2.04
Drew Gooden	57	58	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.03	2	5	-3	16.4	15.6	0.76	14.2	15.1	-0.95
Ira Newble	49	51	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	0.17	-14	21	-35	17.7	14.3	3.45	14.8	14.2	0.59

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Maurice Evans	51	52	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.08	5	-12	17	14.8	14.3	0.55	17.1	14.8	2.35
Dwight Howard	75	75	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.29	11	-18	29	13.8	17.6	-3.79	15.7	17.6	-1.87
Jameer Nelson	75	76	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.28	10	-17	27	13.8	17.5	-3.73	16.3	15.0	1.34
Brian Cook	37	38	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.04	-10	3	-13	13.3	15.4	-2.12	14.0	17.5	-3.50
Hedo Turkoglu	72	72	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.32	0	-7	7	14.5	14.6	-0.11	17.2	12.4	4.86
Adonal Foyle	15	15	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.01	-15	8	-23	18.7	13.8	4.97	16.9	15.9	0.93
Rashard Lewis	83	82	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.30	-7	0	-7	15.1	10.5	4.54	16.3	14.9	1.34
Carlos Arroyo	19	18	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.01	-17	10	-27	17.5	13.8	3.73	15.0	16.3	-1.34
Keith Bogans	43	42	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.22	-12	5	-17	14.3	14.8	-0.55	14.8	17.1	-2.35

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.62,0.54,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.61,0.67,0.59,0.58,0.68,0.65,0.49,0.6,0.52,0.5,0.34,0.34,0.18,0.07,0.14,0.12,0.17,0.03,0,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 100, NOP 91	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.59,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.6,0.69,0.76,0.67,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.4,0.38,0.26,0.21,0.2,0.12,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0	93.1%
TOR 110, NYK 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.7,0.68,0.67,0.65,0.58,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.69,0.59,0.63,0.48,0.46,0.34,0.21,0.24,0.19,0.14,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	92.9%
CHI 113, IND 107	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.62,0.63,0.7,0.73,0.79,0.71,0.65,0.59,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.5,0.3,0.25,0.17,0.15,0.1,0.24,0.07,0.1,0.02,0.05,0.01,0	92.8%