NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	122		Excitement	8.7 [150]		MVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): +65.6%
Portland Trail Blazers	116		Comeback	3.7 [112]		LVP	Jerryd Bayless (POR): -18.6%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0.66	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.3,0.48,0.65,0.66	0.23	0.46	0.03	25	68%	0.70	2	-0.05	12	100%	0.08
Monta Ellis	0.25	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.29,0.35,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.18	0.09	0.02	24	63%	0.25	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.06
Anthony Tolliver	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12	0.06	0.06	-0.00	12	58%	0.15	1	-0.02	9	56%	-0.08
Devean George	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.00	15	53%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Morrow	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Hunter	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronny Turiaf	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.02	-0.07	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Williams	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.06	0.01	10	46%	-0.06	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.02

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Martell Webster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.36	0.36	0.09	0.25	-0.02	9	72%	0.39	2	-0.03	7	86%	0.05
Jeff Ayres	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.26,0.2,0.2,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.15	0.12	0.00	15	74%	0.30	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	7	72%	0.11	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.02	1	100%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Rudy Fernandez	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	9	44%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dante Cunningham	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.04	-0.03	0.01	11	57%	0.03	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Travis Diener	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	-0.01	12	46%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.05	0.02	8	58%	-0.01	2	-0.07	3	33%	-0.05
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.19	-0.19	-0.06	-0.12	-0.00	13	43%	-0.10	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.6	25.5	15.6	26.1	3.4	39.6	139.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +31.2%

POR -0.1%

GSW +15.1%

GSW +9.0%

POR -5.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	POR	NBA	GSW	POR	NBA
this game	14.1	14.2	15.3	118.4	114.9	106.0
season	13.4	16.7		106.5	108.8
opponent	15.6	14.8		106.3	110.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.6	14.8	14.6	12.3	14.1
POR	12.5	12.8	16.1	15.4	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devean George	90	89	0.77	-0.27	1.05	0.51	9	-3	12	14.2	13.5	0.71	14.2	14.1	0.09
Anthony Tolliver	103	101	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.32	6	0	6	14.1	0.0	14.08	14.2	0.0	14.16
Reggie Williams	103	101	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.32	6	0	6	14.1	0.0	14.08	14.2	0.0	14.16
Monta Ellis	103	101	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.32	6	0	6	14.1	0.0	14.08	14.2	0.0	14.16
Stephen Curry	103	101	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.32	6	0	6	14.1	0.0	14.08	14.2	0.0	14.16
Ronny Turiaf	0	1	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	-0.09	0	6	-6	0.0	14.1	-14.08	10.0	14.2	-4.20
Chris Hunter	13	11	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	-0.11	-3	9	-12	13.5	14.2	-0.71	14.5	14.1	0.33

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Juwan Howard	33	35	0.13	-0.63	0.76	-0.02	5	-11	16	15.0	13.7	1.25	15.1	13.5	1.61
Rudy Fernandez	64	66	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.04	2	-8	10	14.4	13.8	0.55	14.2	13.9	0.29
Andre Miller	20	21	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.03	-2	-4	2	13.3	14.4	-1.01	14.0	14.1	-0.16
Dante Cunningham	60	62	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.02	-3	-3	0	14.0	14.4	-0.35	14.6	13.3	1.22
Travis Diener	27	27	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.09	-4	-2	-2	14.1	14.2	-0.12	15.1	13.7	1.35
Jerryd Bayless	61	62	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.33	0	-6	6	14.0	14.4	-0.44	14.9	12.9	1.99
Nicolas Batum	80	81	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.33	-2	-4	2	14.4	13.3	1.10	13.8	15.1	-1.35
Martell Webster	67	67	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.29	-5	-1	-4	13.8	14.9	-1.14	13.9	14.4	-0.44
Patty Mills	30	30	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.22	-8	2	-10	14.7	13.9	0.77	11.4	15.2	-3.78
Jeff Ayres	63	64	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.35	-13	7	-20	14.0	14.5	-0.51	13.5	14.9	-1.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.5,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.56,0.59,0.49,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.41,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.52,0.64,0.74,0.7,0.79,0.48,0.53,0.59,0.46,0.28,0.31,0.55,0.32,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 98, ATL 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.46,0.45,0.38,0.46,0.45,0.53,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.61,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.69,0.74,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.71,0.63,0.47,0.35,0.28,0.39,0.28,0.31,0.26,0	91.1%
SEA 90, NYK 80	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.35,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.61,0.51,0.49,0.59,0.63,0.54,0.6,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.62,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.33,0.38,0.64,0.22,0,0	91.0%
UTA 109, TOR 101	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.44,0.37,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.67,0.68,0.59,0.4,0.22,0.39,0.28,0.11,0.01,0	90.8%