NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	117		Excitement	2.4 [1254]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +8.6%
Los Angeles Clippers	94		Comeback	1.1 [1258]		LVP	Jason Kidd (DAL): -6.9%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.20	0.00	0.11	13	83%	0.10	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.00
Jason Terry	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.00	0.01	7	75%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rodrigue Beaubois	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.01	8	65%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.15	0.00	0.09	12	78%	0.07	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.09	0.00	0.06	7	79%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	6	47%	0.03	1	0.00	5	40%	-0.01
Eduardo Najera	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.04	6	42%	0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	3	50%	0.01	2	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Matt Carroll	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	6	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Juan Barea	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	-0.00
Jason Kidd	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.00	-0.00	13	46%	-0.01	4	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Craig Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.13	0.00	0.05	8	75%	0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
DeAndre Jordan	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	8	59%	0.04	2	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01
Brian Skinner	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Novak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.13	0.00	0.14	9	83%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.04	9	28%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	0.02	8	56%	-0.01	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.02	0.00	0.07	11	54%	-0.05	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Chris Kaman	0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.09	-0.00	-0.04	15	49%	0.01	6	-0.06	5	100%	0.01
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.13	-0.00	-0.07	15	30%	-0.04	2	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	1.8	29.4	16.3	24.8	2.0	28.3	125.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +37.4%

DAL +0.7%

DAL +2.5%

DAL +5.9%

DAL +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	LAC	NBA	DAL	LAC	NBA
this game	14.5	16.5	15.3	124.5	102.2	106.0
season	15.2	15.5		107.2	101.9
opponent	15.2	15.5		108.5	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	12.5	13.8	14.5	17.4	14.5
LAC	14.6	19.1	16.8	16.0	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawn Marion	55	52	0.47	0.03	0.44	-0.38	29	-6	35	12.8	16.7	-3.91	16.5	16.6	-0.16
Jason Kidd	62	60	0.37	0.13	0.25	-0.39	26	-3	29	13.1	17.1	-4.00	15.8	18.0	-2.20
Dirk Nowitzki	45	47	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.35	23	0	23	13.0	15.8	-2.75	16.3	16.8	-0.57
Rodrigue Beaubois	38	40	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.27	19	4	15	12.1	16.1	-4.04	15.8	17.1	-1.34
Brendan Haywood	48	45	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.15	4	19	-15	15.6	13.2	2.43	17.0	16.1	0.96
Erick Dampier	46	47	0.24	0.26	-0.03	-0.32	19	4	15	13.2	15.6	-2.43	16.1	17.0	-0.96
Jason Terry	40	36	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.23	15	8	7	15.7	13.6	2.12	18.0	15.6	2.46
Eduardo Najera	49	45	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.18	0	23	-23	15.8	13.0	2.75	16.8	16.3	0.57
Jose Juan Barea	32	32	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.21	-3	26	-29	17.1	13.1	4.00	18.0	15.8	2.20
DeShawn Stevenson	39	40	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.20	-6	29	-35	16.7	12.8	3.91	16.6	16.5	0.16
Matt Carroll	16	16	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.32	-11	34	-45	17.1	13.9	3.21	15.1	16.8	-1.78

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Skinner	4	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-24	25	13.5	16.7	-3.17	16.0	14.4	1.61
Bobby Brown	24	25	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.13	-7	-16	9	18.4	15.9	2.49	16.6	13.7	2.92
Steve Novak	43	43	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.15	-11	-12	1	16.2	16.8	-0.65	15.5	13.5	1.99
Craig Smith	53	56	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.15	-1	-22	21	16.8	16.2	0.52	15.9	12.3	3.55
Travis Outlaw	49	51	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.02	-12	-11	-1	16.8	16.2	0.65	13.5	15.5	-1.99
Chris Kaman	68	69	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.25	-22	-1	-21	15.7	18.8	-3.06	13.4	17.2	-3.79
Steve Blake	82	83	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	0.07	-16	-7	-9	15.9	22.1	-6.25	14.1	16.8	-2.67
DeAndre Jordan	59	59	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.28	-24	1	-25	17.5	14.9	2.58	14.2	14.9	-0.77
Rasual Butler	78	80	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	0.16	-23	0	-23	16.7	15.7	0.97	14.1	16.4	-2.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.28,0.24,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.23,0.17,0.16,0.17,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.09,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 124, MIN 111	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.32,0.28,0.21,0.19,0.17,0.18,0.16,0.13,0.14,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.5%
MIN 104, VAN 91	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.33,0.22,0.26,0.28,0.26,0.23,0.21,0.24,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.16,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.4%
LAL 103, WAS 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.31,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.22,0.21,0.25,0.24,0.22,0.12,0.18,0.19,0.12,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.4%