NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	124		Excitement	2.5 [1245]		MVP	Chris Andersen (DEN): +9.1%
Minnesota Timberwolves	111		Comeback	1.0 [1242]		LVP	Al Jefferson (MIN): -9.5%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Andersen	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.12	0.00	0.04	5	88%	0.09	1	-0.00	7	100%	0.02
Carmelo Anthony	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.13	0.00	0.05	12	67%	0.08	1	-0.00	9	100%	0.02
Nene	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.13	0.00	0.05	9	81%	0.08	1	-0.00	3	100%	0.01
Kenyon Martin	0.04	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.02	12	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Arron Afflalo	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.01	8	62%	0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	11	64%	0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joey Graham	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	4	40%	-0.00	2	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	3	33%	-0.00	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	9	38%	0.01	2	-0.02	3	33%	-0.01
Chauncey Billups	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.07	0.00	0.10	6	100%	0.03	7	-0.07	7	100%	0.02

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nathan Jawai	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	3	71%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Ryan Hollins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.14	0.00	0.11	9	83%	0.04	1	-0.00	5	60%	-0.00
Ramon Sessions	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	8	33%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	18	52%	0.00	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.03
Oleksiy Pecherov	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.03	11	55%	-0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Cardinal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0.01	6	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Ryan Gomes	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	7	31%	-0.02	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Sasha Pavlovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.04	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jonny Flynn	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	0.02	15	53%	-0.03	5	-0.03	8	75%	0.00
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	0.00	0.08	16	41%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	2.5	33.4	15.6	30.2	2.5	29.4	138.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +38.7%

DEN +12.6%

MIN -2.3%

MIN -1.0%

DEN +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIN	NBA	DEN	MIN	NBA
this game	13.5	14.1	15.3	118.1	106.7	106.0
season	14.4	14.7		110.3	100.1
opponent	14.8	15.5		109.8	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.8	12.9	12.2	14.2	13.5
MIN	16.5	14.8	13.5	11.9	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nene	59	60	0.53	-0.03	0.57	-0.29	28	-15	43	14.0	12.8	1.19	15.0	12.7	2.32
Arron Afflalo	74	75	0.49	0.01	0.48	-0.04	18	-5	23	14.2	11.9	2.30	14.4	13.2	1.15
Chauncey Billups	60	59	0.35	0.15	0.19	-0.12	16	-3	19	13.2	13.9	-0.73	15.0	12.9	2.08
Carmelo Anthony	62	61	0.32	0.18	0.13	-0.09	14	-1	15	13.4	13.7	-0.34	14.6	13.4	1.19
Kenyon Martin	64	63	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.13	15	-2	17	13.4	13.7	-0.35	14.8	12.9	1.96
Ty Lawson	50	51	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.21	0	13	-13	13.7	13.3	0.43	13.4	14.8	-1.40
Chris Andersen	51	51	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.29	-5	18	-23	12.3	14.6	-2.34	13.6	14.5	-0.94
J.R. Smith	41	39	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.10	1	12	-11	12.1	14.4	-2.21	13.8	14.2	-0.48
Anthony Carter	28	27	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.30	-10	23	-33	14.2	13.2	1.03	11.9	14.8	-2.94
Joey Graham	28	27	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.30	-10	23	-33	14.2	13.2	1.03	11.9	14.8	-2.94
Malik Allen	8	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	15	-17	15.7	13.3	2.44	10.6	14.3	-3.75

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sasha Pavlovic	23	23	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.13	6	-19	25	12.7	14.4	-1.71	11.6	14.0	-2.42
Oleksiy Pecherov	45	45	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.28	9	-22	31	13.4	14.5	-1.10	12.8	14.0	-1.14
Nathan Jawai	15	16	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.07	1	-14	15	12.2	14.4	-2.18	15.7	13.1	2.59
Wayne Ellington	6	6	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.07	-6	-7	1	16.3	13.9	2.40	14.8	13.4	1.42
Brian Cardinal	11	11	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.03	-5	-8	3	14.1	14.1	0.03	12.3	13.6	-1.37
Damien Wilkins	47	45	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.22	2	-15	17	14.0	14.2	-0.20	13.6	13.4	0.18
Ramon Sessions	62	64	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.26	1	-14	15	13.3	15.2	-1.88	12.7	14.8	-2.11
Ryan Hollins	45	45	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.01	-10	-3	-7	14.8	13.5	1.21	14.3	12.9	1.47
Ryan Gomes	44	46	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.15	-15	2	-17	14.7	13.6	1.03	13.5	13.5	-0.03
Jonny Flynn	82	83	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.11	-10	-3	-7	13.9	14.7	-0.84	14.2	10.9	3.27
Corey Brewer	63	64	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.21	-22	9	-31	14.7	13.0	1.72	13.1	14.1	-1.07
Al Jefferson	77	77	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	0.01	-16	3	-19	14.6	12.6	1.99	13.8	12.6	1.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.32,0.28,0.21,0.19,0.17,0.18,0.16,0.13,0.14,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 104, VAN 91	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.33,0.22,0.26,0.28,0.26,0.23,0.21,0.24,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.16,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.9%
MIA 128, SAC 99	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.35,0.27,0.28,0.32,0.32,0.25,0.23,0.22,0.15,0.16,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.5%
DAL 117, LAC 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.28,0.24,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.23,0.17,0.16,0.17,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.09,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.5%