NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	111		Excitement	4.8 [839]		MVP	Michael Beasley (MIA): +14.0%
New York Knicks	98		Comeback	2.4 [740]		LVP	Sergio Rodriguez (NYK): -10.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Beasley	0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.09	0.04	-0.01	9	67%	0.14	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.04
Quentin Richardson	0.12	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.11	0.02	0.01	8	87%	0.15	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.03	0.02	6	86%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	-0.01	-0.02	13	52%	0.05	1	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01
Dwyane Wade	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.08	-0.01	0.05	26	52%	0.07	2	-0.04	9	89%	0.02
Joel Anthony	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.04	9	67%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	8	44%	0.01	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Mario Chalmers	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.10	-0.01	-0.03	4	10%	-0.04	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Lee	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.10	-0.00	0.01	18	65%	0.16	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Henry Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.17	-0.00	0.09	9	100%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	-0.00	0.00	4	100%	0.10	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Toney Douglas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	9	35%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Earl Barron	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	7	54%	0.06	6	-0.13	10	90%	0.03
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	19	41%	-0.03	2	-0.05	8	100%	0.03
Sergio Rodriguez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.02	0.01	2	17%	-0.05	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	3.3	24.5	17.3	27.5	2.6	28.4	128.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +38.7%

NYK -15.3%

MIA +11.4%

MIA +12.3%

MIA +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NYK	NBA	MIA	NYK	NBA
this game	16.8	14.7	15.3	120.7	107.7	106.0
season	16.2	14.7		104.4	105.9
opponent	15.5	15.4		109.9	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.8	16.5	15.2	17.7	16.8
NYK	15.6	14.8	14.8	13.6	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	70	70	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.01	20	-7	27	16.8	16.7	0.12	14.6	15.0	-0.40
Michael Beasley	68	65	0.52	-0.02	0.55	-0.00	18	-5	23	15.6	20.0	-4.37	15.4	12.9	2.48
Mario Chalmers	45	46	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.11	11	2	9	16.9	16.7	0.19	13.9	15.5	-1.66
Dwyane Wade	72	70	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.01	15	-2	17	16.1	19.1	-2.97	15.2	13.0	2.20
Quentin Richardson	48	47	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.06	9	4	5	15.2	18.5	-3.27	16.0	13.3	2.70
Dorell Wright	44	44	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.06	4	9	-5	18.5	15.2	3.27	13.3	16.0	-2.70
Carlos Arroyo	67	66	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.14	0	13	-13	17.4	15.1	2.32	14.7	14.6	0.13
Jermaine O'Neal	32	34	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.20	-9	22	-31	18.2	16.0	2.12	14.0	15.1	-1.15
Joel Anthony	14	13	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.03	-3	16	-19	19.0	16.4	2.63	13.5	14.9	-1.35

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tracy McGrady	41	43	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.07	0	-13	13	15.7	13.9	1.85	16.4	17.1	-0.71
Toney Douglas	47	47	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.01	-4	-9	5	13.5	16.0	-2.53	17.9	15.6	2.25
Henry Walker	61	63	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.04	-9	-4	-5	14.1	15.8	-1.70	17.5	15.2	2.29
David Lee	67	69	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.09	-8	-5	-3	14.7	14.6	0.15	16.8	16.8	-0.07
Sergio Rodriguez	35	33	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.09	-9	-4	-5	14.6	14.8	-0.20	17.5	16.4	1.16
Chris Duhon	50	51	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.11	-10	-3	-7	15.6	13.6	1.97	15.5	18.4	-2.88
Earl Barron	71	71	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.08	-11	-2	-9	14.9	13.9	0.95	16.3	18.4	-2.15
Danilo Gallinari	83	83	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.10	-14	1	-15	14.6	15.6	-1.02	16.7	17.2	-0.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.63,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.6,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.46,0.46,0.33,0.27,0.29,0.34,0.31,0.35,0.36,0.26,0.25,0.28,0.15,0.1,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 105, LAC 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.27,0.31,0.28,0.2,0.33,0.29,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.17,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.14,0.04,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.02,0,0	95.1%
IND 102, NYK 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.53,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.33,0.26,0.28,0.25,0.3,0.33,0.23,0.13,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.11,0.12,0.04,0.05,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0	94.4%
PHI 100, DEN 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.39,0.33,0.34,0.28,0.22,0.24,0.3,0.23,0.22,0.16,0.18,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.07,0.09,0.16,0	94.1%