NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	113		Excitement	6.9 [422]		MVP	Corey Maggette (GSW): +27.0%
Toronto Raptors	112		Comeback	1.1 [305]		LVP	Sonny Weems (TOR): -17.4%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corey Maggette	0.27	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.27	0.15	0.14	0.02	14	77%	0.37	4	-0.10	12	83%	0.04
Stephen Curry	0.14	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.11,0.14	0.01	0.09	-0.04	23	56%	0.22	5	-0.08	6	67%	-0.01
Anthony Morrow	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.02	-0.01	22	54%	0.14	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Tolliver	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.03	7	75%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
CJ Watson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.04	-0.01	5	45%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Chris Hunter	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Williams	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.04	0.01	14	32%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronny Turiaf	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	0.00	0	0%	-0.02	3	-0.09	2	0%	-0.04

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.26,0.16	0.16	0.23	0.01	0.08	19	69%	0.25	3	-0.09	23	87%	0.07
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.05	-0.00	4	62%	0.09	1	-0.01	5	80%	0.03
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	6	67%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0.01	0.01	0.07	-0.01	0.05	13	58%	0.03	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.02
Marco Belinelli	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Wright	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	6	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	42%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	23	36%	-0.08	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	0.00	5	20%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Sonny Weems	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.12	-0.06	-0.01	11	18%	-0.15	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	2.6	27.3	18.4	26.3	2.7	51.0	154.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +78.0%

TOR -7.2%

TOR -19.7%

TOR -7.0%

GSW +5.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	TOR	NBA	GSW	TOR	NBA
this game	14.1	13.8	15.3	110.8	107.7	106.0
season	13.4	15.0		106.5	109.6
opponent	15.5	14.8		111.5	110.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	11.3	15.3	14.0	15.9	14.1
TOR	14.3	14.7	16.7	10.4	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stephen Curry	96	97	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.41	5	-4	9	13.9	18.3	-4.47	13.6	16.4	-2.78
Ronny Turiaf	55	57	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.27	9	-8	17	13.9	14.4	-0.47	14.1	13.6	0.48
Reggie Williams	87	89	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.41	2	-1	3	13.8	15.9	-2.04	14.1	12.1	2.07
Corey Maggette	82	81	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.39	1	0	1	13.8	15.5	-1.71	13.8	14.0	-0.21
Anthony Morrow	87	91	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.38	-4	5	-9	14.4	12.6	1.79	13.8	13.8	-0.01
Anthony Tolliver	57	58	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.18	-2	3	-5	14.8	13.2	1.58	13.8	13.9	-0.18
Chris Hunter	11	10	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.14	-1	2	-3	11.6	14.4	-2.79	15.1	13.7	1.40
CJ Watson	35	36	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.09	-1	2	-3	15.7	13.3	2.42	13.5	14.0	-0.51
Devean George	0	1	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.08	-4	5	-9	0.0	14.1	-14.13	1.0	14.0	-12.96

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMar DeRozan	33	34	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.02	2	-3	5	14.8	13.4	1.35	14.1	14.1	-0.06
Marco Belinelli	1	1	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.09	4	-5	9	0.0	14.0	-13.97	2.0	14.2	-12.25
Jarrett Jack	62	61	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.40	14	-15	29	13.0	15.1	-2.07	15.1	12.6	2.50
Amir Johnson	38	38	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.05	-4	3	-7	13.0	14.3	-1.32	13.4	14.5	-1.08
Hedo Turkoglu	43	43	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.17	-4	3	-7	14.1	13.6	0.52	13.9	14.3	-0.38
Antoine Wright	58	55	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.31	0	-1	1	13.7	14.0	-0.29	14.5	13.7	0.71
Chris Bosh	89	86	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.48	3	-4	7	13.9	13.4	0.51	14.2	13.7	0.52
Sonny Weems	74	71	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.28	-6	5	-11	13.4	14.9	-1.54	14.2	14.0	0.23
Andrea Bargnani	81	81	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.50	1	-2	3	14.1	12.9	1.24	14.2	13.8	0.40
Jose Calderon	41	40	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.05	-15	14	-29	15.4	12.8	2.65	12.9	14.9	-2.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.25,0.23,0.27,0.33,0.27,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.23,0.19,0.2,0.26,0.25,0.15,0.11,0.18,0.09,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.14,0.02,0.1,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 86, POR 81	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.37,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.41,0.25,0.2,0.22,0.25,0.26,0.18,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.13,0.15,0.1,0.03,0.02,0	94.0%
MEM 104, GSW 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.26,0.23,0.31,0.37,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.32,0.19,0.13,0.17,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.02,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0	93.6%
DEN 115, OKC 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.33,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.25,0.32,0.41,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.25,0.24,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.15,0.06,0.08,0.02,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.01,0,0	93.5%