NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	97		Excitement	6.2 [552]		MVP	Ryan Anderson (ORL): +43.0%
Orlando Magic	103		Comeback	3.6 [554]		LVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): -14.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Allen	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.01	0.00	5	83%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Joey Graham	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	2	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.03	0.02	7	64%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0	0.02	0.01	0.02	25	48%	0.03	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Chauncey Billups	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0	0.06	-0.01	0.04	17	53%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.11,0.07,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	10	62%	0.10	4	-0.12	1	0%	-0.04
Johan Petro	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.02	-0.05	0.04	9	59%	0.01	2	-0.08	4	75%	-0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.21,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.43	0.43	0.22	0.21	0.00	8	112%	0.43	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.10	0.06	-0.01	15	64%	0.23	1	-0.06	6	67%	0.01
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.05	0.00	10	67%	0.14	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	14	52%	0.08	4	-0.10	1	100%	0.01
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	11	43%	0.01	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	3	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.03	-0.09	0.03	15	46%	-0.07	2	-0.08	9	44%	-0.11

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	1.7	29.6	16.0	22.2	2.7	29.2	125.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +33.5%

ORL +11.3%

ORL +2.9%

ORL +2.0%

ORL +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	ORL	NBA	DEN	ORL	NBA
this game	16.6	16.7	15.3	112.8	118.4	106.0
season	14.4	15.4		110.3	110.1
opponent	15.9	15.5		101.9	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	17.3	14.8	19.4	15.3	16.6
ORL	16.2	15.2	17.4	18.1	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Arron Afflalo	46	46	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.09	4	-10	14	17.0	16.2	0.87	17.0	16.3	0.69
Malik Allen	34	34	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.06	1	-7	8	15.4	17.5	-2.08	16.0	17.1	-1.12
Chauncey Billups	61	62	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.25	7	-13	20	17.3	15.1	2.20	16.5	17.0	-0.48
Johan Petro	34	35	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.11	0	-6	6	18.7	15.3	3.42	16.6	16.7	-0.14
Carmelo Anthony	75	76	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.27	3	-9	12	17.0	13.9	3.13	16.1	20.3	-4.14
Nene	63	65	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.26	-2	-4	2	16.5	17.1	-0.61	17.3	14.7	2.64
Joey Graham	17	18	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.13	-10	4	-14	12.5	17.7	-5.20	19.8	15.8	4.01
Chris Andersen	35	33	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.14	-10	4	-14	17.3	16.2	1.14	15.6	17.3	-1.69
Anthony Carter	25	25	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.08	-13	7	-20	15.1	17.3	-2.20	17.0	16.5	0.48
J.R. Smith	40	41	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.23	-10	4	-14	16.2	17.0	-0.87	16.3	17.0	-0.69

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JJ Redick	83	83	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.29	8	-2	10	16.6	18.7	-2.20	16.7	16.3	0.32
Rashard Lewis	66	65	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.24	8	-2	10	17.6	13.7	3.94	17.0	15.4	1.67
Dwight Howard	78	77	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.38	1	5	-4	16.5	18.1	-1.62	16.8	15.0	1.83
Ryan Anderson	37	38	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.25	4	2	2	16.4	16.9	-0.48	15.4	17.6	-2.28
Jason Williams	23	23	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.05	10	-4	14	17.6	16.3	1.24	14.4	17.5	-3.07
Matt Barnes	69	68	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.16	2	4	-2	16.0	19.0	-2.96	17.1	14.7	2.42
Jameer Nelson	64	63	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.28	-4	10	-14	16.3	17.6	-1.24	17.5	14.4	3.07
Marcin Gortat	9	9	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.05	5	1	4	18.1	16.5	1.62	15.0	16.8	-1.83
Vince Carter	4	3	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	8	-10	18.7	16.6	2.20	16.3	16.7	-0.32
Brandon Bass	2	1	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	-0.01	-2	8	-10	11.5	16.8	-5.28	4.0	16.8	-12.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.61,0.52,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.5,0.43,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.24,0.29,0.41,0.41,0.33,0.44,0.4,0.5,0.62,0.75,0.62,0.58,0.74,0.8,0.82,0.93,0.89,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 88, ORL 95	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.42,0.48,0.39,0.38,0.27,0.26,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.54,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.68,0.64,0.76,0.72,0.86,0.96,1,1,1	93.4%
WAS 93, CHH 99	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.46,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.31,0.28,0.3,0.24,0.23,0.28,0.38,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.76,0.68,0.74,0.81,0.86,0.97,0.96,0.99,0.95,1	93.3%
DET 74, SAS 81	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.3,0.27,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.68,0.69,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.83,0.97,0.96,1	93.3%