NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Clippers	99		Excitement	7.7 [266]		MVP	Craig Smith (LAC): +31.7%
Houston Rockets	93		Comeback	4.5 [104]		LVP	Chris Kaman (LAC): -18.7%

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Craig Smith	0.32	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.27,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.32	0.17	0.14	-0.00	13	69%	0.32	0	0.00	10	50%	-0.09
Steve Novak	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	0.01	3	100%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.04,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.02	14	55%	0.15	3	-0.13	3	100%	0.01
DeAndre Jordan	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.01	3	58%	0.03	1	-0.05	6	50%	-0.04
Travis Outlaw	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Gordon	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.16,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	0.01	15	45%	0.05	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Baron Davis	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04	0.05	-0.04	0.05	12	57%	-0.00	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Steve Blake	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	0.00	0.01	5	42%	0.02	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.00
Rasual Butler	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	10	25%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Kaman	-0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.15	-0.04	-0.01	9	22%	-0.07	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chase Budinger	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.00	0.03	12	58%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine Taylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.03,-0.07,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.04	0.02	8	58%	0.04	1	-0.05	8	100%	0.06
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	15	47%	0.05	2	-0.08	8	62%	-0.04
Michael Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	6	36%	-0.07	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Trevor Ariza	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.07	0.00	20	42%	-0.04	3	-0.09	3	33%	-0.03
Luis Scola	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	21	35%	-0.14	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.5	29.4	15.7	28.0	1.8	41.8	143.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAC +46.3%

LAC +9.3%

LAC +14.7%

HOU -20.9%

LAC +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAC	HOU	NBA	LAC	HOU	NBA
this game	15.5	14.1	15.3	102.1	94.9	106.0
season	15.5	15.0		101.9	106.0
opponent	15.1	15.2		106.1	108.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAC	15.7	14.2	17.1	15.1	15.5
HOU	13.7	13.5	17.1	12.6	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Craig Smith	50	51	0.88	-0.38	1.27	0.15	25	-19	44	15.3	15.6	-0.23	14.6	13.5	1.16
DeAndre Jordan	37	38	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.06	16	-10	26	16.0	15.1	0.88	14.7	13.7	1.01
Eric Gordon	83	83	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.29	3	3	0	15.0	17.9	-2.81	13.9	15.0	-1.07
Steve Blake	30	30	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.11	8	-2	10	15.6	15.4	0.26	11.8	15.1	-3.30
Steve Novak	31	31	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.03	9	-3	12	16.8	14.8	1.99	15.6	13.4	2.22
Rasual Butler	64	64	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.41	-7	13	-20	15.8	14.7	1.15	13.7	14.8	-1.08
Baron Davis	70	70	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.25	-3	9	-12	14.8	17.3	-2.50	14.8	12.2	2.58
Travis Outlaw	16	18	0.13	0.37	-0.25	-0.08	7	-1	8	13.4	15.9	-2.49	13.6	14.2	-0.66
Chris Kaman	53	54	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.30	-11	17	-28	15.2	15.7	-0.46	12.9	15.6	-2.72
Drew Gooden	51	51	-0.39	0.89	-1.28	0.11	-17	23	-40	16.2	14.6	1.65	14.7	13.4	1.28

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Brooks	78	75	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.17	6	-12	18	14.7	11.7	3.01	15.3	16.1	-0.82
Jermaine Taylor	14	15	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.06	-6	0	-6	11.2	14.6	-3.36	17.2	15.1	2.07
Michael Harris	33	32	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.05	-8	2	-10	14.3	14.0	0.36	15.6	15.4	0.21
Chase Budinger	58	61	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.32	4	-10	14	13.6	14.9	-1.32	15.5	15.4	0.15
Luis Scola	87	85	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.35	-1	-5	4	14.0	14.5	-0.51	15.5	14.8	0.71
Charles Hayes	74	74	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.31	-4	-2	-2	14.3	13.5	0.78	15.9	14.1	1.79
Trevor Ariza	83	82	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.38	-5	-1	-4	14.4	12.5	1.92	15.2	17.0	-1.83
Kyle Lowry	63	61	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.20	-16	10	-26	13.8	14.6	-0.79	14.9	16.4	-1.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.6,0.53,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.55,0.58,0.73,0.79,0.79,0.71,0.62,0.63,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.28,0.1,0.07,0.15,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 98, LAC 92	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.6,0.65,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.81,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.56,0.44,0.52,0.54,0.38,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.35,0.31,0.22,0.03,0.01,0	92.3%
CHI 104, NYK 99	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.67,0.57,0.6,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.44,0.41,0.51,0.5,0.6,0.75,0.8,0.78,0.71,0.79,0.71,0.62,0.59,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.63,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.19,0.12,0.06,0.05,0	91.7%
MIA 99, ATL 93	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.62,0.69,0.56,0.67,0.6,0.46,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.42,0.41,0.53,0.34,0.24,0.21,0.15,0.04,0	91.6%