NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	99		Excitement	4.5 [911]		MVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): +14.9%
Boston Celtics	113		Comeback	1.1 [972]		LVP	Nene (DEN): -7.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
J.R. Smith	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.06	0.02	14	60%	0.15	1	-0.03	7	57%	-0.04
Arron Afflalo	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	-0.01	0.02	8	72%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Carter	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	-0.00	0.04	23	52%	0.07	2	-0.06	16	81%	0.01
Malik Allen	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	1	100%	0.02	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Joey Graham	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0.02	3	83%	0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	9	52%	0.05	3	-0.08	5	100%	0.01
Chris Andersen	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	1	25%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Johan Petro	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Nene	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	0.02	7	37%	-0.05	1	-0.02	5	20%	-0.06

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.16	0.01	0.02	16	69%	0.16	1	-0.01	7	100%	0.02
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.02	0.01	6	81%	0.12	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Nate Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.06	-0.01	7	57%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	4	87%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.01	13	55%	0.05	1	-0.00	3	100%	0.01
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	7	47%	0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Shelden Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.01	20	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.01
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Glen Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	9	46%	-0.00	4	-0.07	6	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	1.8	36.2	18.7	29.5	3.0	35.0	152.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +13.2%

BOS +2.2%

BOS +14.8%

BOS +16.9%

BOS +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	BOS	NBA	DEN	BOS	NBA
this game	14.5	16.0	15.3	104.2	120.2	106.0
season	14.4	15.5		110.3	105.7
opponent	15.7	15.5		102.1	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.7	15.4	13.3	14.5	14.5
BOS	14.1	15.9	16.7	17.5	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Carter	24	24	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.17	6	-20	26	15.4	14.2	1.21	17.8	15.4	2.39
Ty Lawson	18	19	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.10	2	-16	18	13.1	14.8	-1.75	14.5	16.4	-1.86
Malik Allen	18	16	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-13	12	15.9	14.1	1.81	15.8	16.1	-0.24
Joey Graham	18	18	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.06	-1	-13	12	13.6	14.7	-1.06	19.9	15.1	4.80
J.R. Smith	58	58	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.15	-3	-11	8	14.5	14.4	0.16	17.1	14.2	2.90
Johan Petro	39	37	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.05	-7	-7	0	13.8	14.9	-1.15	14.4	17.0	-2.60
Chris Andersen	46	45	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.08	-6	-8	2	15.2	13.8	1.48	16.5	15.6	0.92
Arron Afflalo	52	51	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.01	-9	-5	-4	14.2	14.9	-0.71	16.2	15.8	0.32
Nene	51	52	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	0.10	-16	2	-18	14.4	14.5	-0.13	15.6	16.5	-0.93
Carmelo Anthony	82	82	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.05	-13	-1	-12	14.5	14.2	0.28	15.5	19.3	-3.81
Chauncey Billups	69	68	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	0.14	-22	8	-30	14.4	14.6	-0.14	15.2	18.1	-2.91

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rajon Rondo	72	73	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.04	18	-4	22	15.5	17.7	-2.18	14.5	14.4	0.14
Kevin Garnett	64	66	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.05	17	-3	20	15.6	16.8	-1.21	14.7	14.1	0.58
Tony Allen	39	37	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.03	12	2	10	16.8	15.4	1.43	13.9	14.9	-1.00
Kendrick Perkins	45	48	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.05	14	0	14	14.4	17.5	-3.09	14.6	14.3	0.26
Ray Allen	70	70	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.02	9	5	4	15.9	16.5	-0.60	14.1	15.5	-1.42
Paul Pierce	64	65	0.27	0.23	0.05	-0.05	11	3	8	16.0	16.1	-0.13	14.6	14.2	0.45
Michael Finley	18	18	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.06	1	13	-12	16.9	15.8	1.15	16.0	14.1	1.88
Nate Robinson	32	32	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.14	-2	16	-18	16.6	15.7	0.93	14.5	14.5	0.04
Rasheed Wallace	29	28	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.08	-1	15	-16	16.7	15.7	0.93	14.9	14.3	0.59
Shelden Williams	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	16	-18	22.0	15.9	6.12	5.0	14.7	-9.68
Glen Davis	24	24	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.16	-6	20	-26	18.0	15.3	2.62	14.0	14.6	-0.69
Marquis Daniels	11	12	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.01	-1	15	-16	16.1	16.0	0.09	15.3	14.3	0.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.69,0.64,0.69,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.89,0.89,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.93,0.91,0.85,0.78,0.9,0.88,0.91,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 82, NYK 90	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.53,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.67,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.76,0.77,0.84,0.8,0.79,0.89,0.9,0.89,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.91,0.88,0.79,0.78,0.87,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.93,0.97,1,1,1	95.6%
TOR 75, NYK 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.59,0.69,0.69,0.75,0.77,0.84,0.84,0.79,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.87,0.89,0.96,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%
DEN 86, HOU 98	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.71,0.69,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.8,0.84,0.86,0.89,0.91,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.93,0.85,0.92,0.89,0.85,0.86,0.87,0.94,0.97,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	95.2%