NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	102		Excitement	7.4 [327]		MVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): +39.9%
Dallas Mavericks	93		Comeback	4.1 [188]		LVP	Caron Butler (DAL): -16.1%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0.40	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.4,0.4	0.15	0.24	-0.01	17	66%	0.43	2	-0.03	10	80%	0.01
Rajon Rondo	0.22	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.17,0.2,0.22,0.22	0.06	0.17	0.01	15	62%	0.31	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.11	0.07	0.02	13	72%	0.22	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.00
Michael Finley	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.00	0.06	-0.00	2	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.04	-0.04	0.01	7	73%	0.06	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Glen Davis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	5	58%	0.07	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Kevin Garnett	-0.05	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	-0.08	0.02	-0.02	9	40%	0.04	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Rasheed Wallace	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	2	33%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Marquis Daniels	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nate Robinson	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	3	33%	-0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.41,0.41,0.33,0.33	0.33	0.13	0.21	0.01	19	64%	0.41	1	-0.07	6	83%	0.02
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	1	150%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	13	57%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	3	50%	0.08	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	16	55%	0.08	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Rodrigue Beaubois	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	-0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	2	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.07	0.00	8	61%	0.08	3	-0.16	2	100%	0.01
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	0.00	3	37%	-0.05	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Caron Butler	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16	-0.16	-0.14	-0.05	-0.02	14	28%	-0.08	2	-0.08	4	75%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.3	2.5	25.2	15.8	27.3	2.5	31.2	132.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +52.3%

DAL -3.9%

BOS +3.7%

BOS +0.9%

DAL -3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	DAL	NBA	BOS	DAL	NBA
this game	15.8	14.8	15.3	108.5	98.9	106.0
season	15.5	15.2		105.7	107.2
opponent	15.5	15.7		104.6	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	13.3	16.2	17.6	16.6	15.8
DAL	14.3	13.2	16.7	15.4	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ray Allen	69	69	1.00	-0.50	1.50	0.29	24	-15	39	15.2	17.4	-2.21	15.0	14.2	0.84
Rajon Rondo	76	76	0.82	-0.32	1.15	0.30	18	-9	27	15.5	17.2	-1.74	14.6	15.9	-1.32
Kevin Garnett	65	65	0.81	-0.31	1.12	0.28	18	-9	27	15.8	15.8	0.04	14.8	14.8	0.04
Paul Pierce	73	72	0.79	-0.29	1.09	0.32	16	-7	23	15.4	17.2	-1.83	14.3	16.4	-2.02
Kendrick Perkins	60	61	0.77	-0.27	1.03	0.24	18	-9	27	15.6	16.2	-0.56	15.0	14.4	0.61
Glen Davis	32	31	-0.27	0.77	-1.03	-0.00	-9	18	-27	16.4	15.5	0.84	14.5	15.0	-0.45
Michael Finley	21	22	-0.29	0.79	-1.09	-0.09	-7	16	-23	17.2	15.4	1.83	16.4	14.3	2.02
Rasheed Wallace	31	31	-0.31	0.81	-1.13	-0.05	-9	18	-27	15.6	15.9	-0.31	14.7	14.9	-0.21
Nate Robinson	18	18	-0.32	0.82	-1.15	-0.06	-9	18	-27	17.2	15.5	1.74	15.9	14.6	1.32
Marquis Daniels	25	25	-0.50	1.00	-1.50	-0.06	-15	24	-39	17.4	15.2	2.21	14.2	15.0	-0.84

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eduardo Najera	37	37	0.31	-0.81	1.13	-0.01	11	-20	31	13.9	15.4	-1.44	17.4	14.8	2.66
Jose Juan Barea	22	22	0.23	-0.73	0.96	0.02	7	-16	23	15.6	14.6	1.01	18.0	15.2	2.79
Rodrigue Beaubois	1	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-7	5	7.0	14.9	-7.90	7.5	16.0	-8.50
Erick Dampier	21	21	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.05	-10	1	-11	13.0	15.3	-2.34	12.3	16.8	-4.55
Jason Terry	66	64	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.19	-2	-7	5	14.5	15.6	-1.07	15.3	16.9	-1.59
Caron Butler	58	57	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.18	-5	-4	-1	15.1	14.3	0.79	15.7	16.1	-0.39
Shawn Marion	61	62	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.11	-9	0	-9	15.1	14.2	0.94	16.5	14.6	1.86
Brendan Haywood	51	50	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.28	-7	-2	-5	15.2	14.4	0.78	16.2	15.3	0.90
Dirk Nowitzki	79	80	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.23	-12	3	-15	15.5	11.3	4.15	15.7	16.3	-0.55
Jason Kidd	74	75	-0.78	0.28	-1.05	-0.31	-16	7	-23	14.5	16.1	-1.63	15.4	17.3	-1.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.37,0.36,0.22,0.3,0.29,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.67,0.77,0.64,0.7,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.31,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 100, POR 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.3,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.37,0.31,0.39,0.39,0.27,0.29,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.52,0.5,0.38,0.6,0.67,0.58,0.74,0.71,0.66,0.46,0.28,0.1,0.05,0	92.1%
MEM 90, LAC 88	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.35,0.45,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.38,0.53,0.71,0.85,0.64,0.46,0.46,0.31,0.22,0.06,0.02,0	91.7%
SAS 71, HOU 67	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.33,0.39,0.46,0.52,0.56,0.67,0.63,0.69,0.66,0.47,0.38,0.64,0.23,0.02,0	91.6%