NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Bobcats	71		Excitement	7.2 [352]		MVP	Dorell Wright (MIA): +9.0%
Miami Heat	77		Comeback	2.0 [648]		LVP	Stephen Jackson (CHA): -31.1%

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
D.J. Augustin	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	5	73%	0.08	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Raymond Felton	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0	0.02	-0.02	0.00	8	53%	0.04	1	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Theo Ratliff	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Larry Hughes	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Graham	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	2	20%	-0.09	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.10
Tyson Chandler	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	3	50%	0.00	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Boris Diaw	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	15	37%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Tyrus Thomas	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.07	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.02
Gerald Wallace	-0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.16	-0.07	-0.10	-0.00	12	47%	0.07	5	-0.24	8	87%	-0.01
Stephen Jackson	-0.31	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21,-0.27,-0.27,-0.31	-0.13	-0.17	0.01	21	35%	-0.23	3	-0.08	10	100%	0.06

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.04	-0.02	5	70%	0.09	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	6	64%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Quentin Richardson	0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.08,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.07	-0.04	0.03	14	64%	0.08	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.02	6	56%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	16	44%	0.05	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.04
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06	-0.06	-0.11	0.04	-0.01	8	18%	-0.06	0	0.00	6	67%	0.01
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	3	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17,-0.19	-0.19	-0.13	-0.06	-0.01	18	35%	-0.10	3	-0.10	4	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	2.7	33.4	16.5	29.8	2.5	39.5	148.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +48.1%

CHA -12.8%

CHA -1.6%

MIA +18.7%

CHA -2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	MIA	NBA	CHA	MIA	NBA
this game	15.7	17.1	15.3	78.9	89.5	106.0
season	16.2	16.2		103.0	104.4
opponent	15.4	15.4		102.8	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	16.3	15.5	14.9	16.1	15.7
MIA	18.0	18.2	15.7	16.6	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
D.J. Augustin	27	23	0.13	-0.63	0.76	-0.11	8	-14	22	16.1	15.5	0.66	17.8	16.8	0.97
Larry Hughes	6	5	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.04	-1	-5	4	17.0	15.6	1.40	15.2	17.2	-1.99
Tyson Chandler	63	58	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.36	12	-18	30	14.4	18.6	-4.15	18.0	15.1	2.86
Stephen Graham	16	13	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.06	1	-7	8	17.7	15.3	2.43	17.5	17.0	0.46
Tyrus Thomas	25	23	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.01	-6	0	-6	17.6	15.0	2.65	16.8	17.2	-0.39
Theo Ratliff	24	25	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.02	-12	6	-18	18.6	14.6	4.00	15.6	17.7	-2.07
Stephen Jackson	75	72	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.30	-4	-2	-2	15.1	18.4	-3.25	17.4	15.3	2.13
Boris Diaw	68	66	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.28	-6	0	-6	15.1	17.5	-2.40	16.9	17.6	-0.69
Gerald Wallace	83	82	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.32	-8	2	-10	15.7	15.6	0.13	16.8	22.2	-5.43
Raymond Felton	63	63	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.22	-14	8	-22	15.5	16.1	-0.66	16.8	17.8	-0.97

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	72	74	0.69	-0.19	0.89	0.37	11	-5	16	16.8	18.4	-1.54	15.8	15.1	0.76
Quentin Richardson	51	51	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.01	14	-8	22	16.7	17.6	-0.94	15.8	15.5	0.27
Michael Beasley	55	55	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.22	6	0	6	16.4	18.3	-1.86	17.3	13.2	4.03
Mario Chalmers	53	57	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.28	2	4	-2	17.6	16.2	1.49	14.8	17.2	-2.36
Joel Anthony	59	62	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.13	7	-1	8	17.1	17.1	-0.06	15.3	16.6	-1.38
Udonis Haslem	58	63	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.30	-1	7	-8	17.7	15.7	2.01	14.7	17.9	-3.14
Carlos Arroyo	33	33	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.04	4	2	2	16.2	17.6	-1.49	17.2	14.8	2.36
Dorell Wright	36	41	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.31	-7	13	-20	17.9	16.5	1.41	15.0	16.3	-1.31
James Jones	13	14	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.04	-6	12	-18	17.7	17.0	0.73	16.6	15.5	1.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.58,0.54,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.35,0.42,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.35,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.68,0.59,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.62,0.62,0.53,0.68,0.79,0.92,0.9,0.77,0.88,0.9,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 94, WAS 107	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.54,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.39,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.57,0.64,0.73,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.49,0.67,0.67,0.77,0.79,0.94,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.94,1,1	92.6%
CHA 94, BOS 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.64,0.71,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.63,0.56,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.75,0.71,0.68,0.69,0.88,0.98,0.98,0.96,1,1,1	92.1%
LAL 109, PHX 118	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.7,0.68,0.63,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.69,0.88,0.93,0.9,0.98,1,1,1	91.8%