NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	91		Excitement	4.9 [830]		MVP	Keith Bogans (SAS): +14.9%
San Antonio Spurs	102		Comeback	1.3 [1121]		LVP	Peja Stojakovic (NOH): -15.6%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darren Collison	0.13	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.17	0.03	0.08	19	80%	0.19	4	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Marcus Thornton	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.02	-0.01	15	56%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
James Posey	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	2	125%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
David West	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.07	-0.01	0.04	19	58%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Julian Wright	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gray	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darius Songaila	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Emeka Okafor	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	0.01	-0.02	7	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02
Morris Peterson	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.03	0.00	6	21%	-0.08	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Peja Stojakovic	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.02	-0.02	10	14%	-0.11	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.15	0.03	0.04	7	94%	0.15	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.05	0.01	8	67%	0.12	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.01	0.02	12	71%	0.14	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.03	0.04	11	67%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.05	-0.00	7	62%	0.09	2	-0.03	2	0%	-0.05
George Hill	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.01	9	61%	0.05	2	-0.04	5	60%	-0.04
Malik Hairston	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ian Mahinmi	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	5	30%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	12	43%	-0.00	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.7	26.3	19.4	28.4	3.7	32.0	136.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +45.6%

SAS +6.0%

SAS +0.9%

NOH -3.8%

SAS +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	SAS	NBA	NOH	SAS	NBA
this game	16.8	15.7	15.3	104.6	113.3	106.0
season	15.5	15.9		106.0	108.2
opponent	15.1	15.2		103.4	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	15.7	16.6	16.4	19.0	16.8
SAS	13.2	17.7	16.3	16.2	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Gray	7	8	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.00	-1	-10	9	15.0	17.0	-2.00	11.7	16.1	-4.36
Julian Wright	11	10	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.01	-3	-8	5	16.9	16.8	0.08	17.8	15.5	2.34
Morris Peterson	39	40	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.03	-5	-6	1	16.2	17.4	-1.15	15.2	16.1	-0.90
Darius Songaila	19	23	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.22	0	-11	11	16.1	17.0	-0.94	16.6	15.4	1.19
Emeka Okafor	61	59	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.05	-10	-1	-9	17.3	15.8	1.47	15.9	15.4	0.56
Marcus Thornton	43	46	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.17	-3	-8	5	16.5	17.1	-0.60	15.3	16.2	-0.94
James Posey	36	38	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.20	-5	-6	1	17.2	16.6	0.65	17.0	14.8	2.17
Peja Stojakovic	63	64	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.04	-11	0	-11	17.1	16.1	0.99	16.0	15.1	0.91
Darren Collison	80	82	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.15	-9	-2	-7	16.9	15.9	1.07	15.4	18.6	-3.19
David West	76	80	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.19	-8	-3	-5	16.8	16.9	-0.08	15.5	17.8	-2.34

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeJuan Blair	62	61	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.11	9	2	7	14.8	17.8	-3.00	16.9	16.7	0.21
Richard Jefferson	49	47	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.20	6	5	1	14.7	17.0	-2.30	17.4	16.2	1.18
Tony Parker	59	57	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.15	7	4	3	15.5	16.2	-0.67	16.3	17.8	-1.52
Matt Bonner	44	41	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.12	7	4	3	15.0	16.4	-1.37	17.7	16.1	1.60
Manu Ginobili	58	55	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.17	5	6	-1	15.3	16.6	-1.30	17.0	16.6	0.39
George Hill	60	61	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.03	10	1	9	16.5	14.2	2.23	17.1	16.2	0.98
Tim Duncan	59	59	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.03	10	1	9	16.3	14.6	1.64	16.6	17.4	-0.87
Keith Bogans	52	50	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.04	4	7	-3	17.2	13.7	3.44	15.9	18.2	-2.30
Malik Hairston	3	1	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.00	0	11	-11	14.3	15.8	-1.44	21.0	16.8	4.21
Ian Mahinmi	4	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	14	-17	23.5	15.4	8.14	17.3	16.8	0.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.65,0.69,0.67,0.62,0.7,0.72,0.68,0.73,0.65,0.63,0.72,0.79,0.71,0.76,0.75,0.78,0.75,0.74,0.77,0.8,0.75,0.79,0.74,0.71,0.75,0.66,0.72,0.68,0.7,0.85,0.75,0.86,0.88,0.92,0.99,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 97, MIA 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.72,0.71,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.77,0.71,0.72,0.67,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.75,0.75,0.81,0.83,0.76,0.84,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.68,0.7,0.78,0.9,0.92,0.85,0.89,0.97,1,1,0.99,1,1,1	95.0%
LAL 85, NYK 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.67,0.72,0.64,0.7,0.65,0.66,0.72,0.77,0.77,0.72,0.78,0.73,0.69,0.66,0.75,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.66,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.77,0.72,0.72,0.69,0.77,0.82,0.74,0.81,0.79,0.72,0.88,0.87,0.94,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,1	94.5%
DEN 90, SAS 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.69,0.65,0.65,0.61,0.66,0.78,0.72,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.74,0.82,0.8,0.76,0.7,0.77,0.8,0.72,0.74,0.77,0.68,0.66,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.87,0.92,0.89,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	94.4%