NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	90		Excitement	5.3 [784]		MVP	Bruce Bowen (SAS): +15.2%
San Antonio Spurs	99		Comeback	1.0 [1251]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): -23.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Earl Boykins	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.02	0.00	7	60%	0.04	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Nene	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	10	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DerMarr Johnson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	62%	0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Bryon Russell	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	13	52%	0.03	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.01
Marcus Camby	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	8	56%	0.04	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Kenyon Martin	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.02	-0.02	0.06	18	62%	0.01	4	-0.07	6	100%	0.04
Carmelo Anthony	-0.23	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.18,-0.16,-0.2,-0.22,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.18	-0.06	-0.00	15	27%	-0.13	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.14	0.05	0.05	8	89%	0.15	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Manu Ginobili	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.01	-0.03	10	67%	0.10	3	-0.05	13	85%	0.03
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.04	0.00	15	59%	0.09	3	-0.06	4	0%	-0.07
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	0.00	6	65%	0.05	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.03
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	19	47%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.18	-0.04	-0.02	6	0%	-0.08	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	3.3	32.4	17.7	32.4	2.8	29.4	145.1
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +40.7%

SAS +2.7%

DEN -6.2%

SAS +5.2%

SAS +7.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAS	NBA	DEN	SAS	NBA
this game	15.1	16.4	15.5	97.8	108.8	104.0
season	14.8	16.3		103.8	105.8
opponent	15.6	15.6		98.4	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.9	14.4	14.4	17.1	15.1
SAS	16.4	15.7	16.9	16.4	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bryon Russell	35	36	0.15	-0.65	0.81	-0.17	11	-20	31	13.6	16.1	-2.47	15.6	16.8	-1.23
DerMarr Johnson	28	27	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.06	1	-10	11	15.1	15.1	0.02	18.1	15.6	2.50
Marcus Camby	72	70	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.21	-2	-7	5	15.2	15.0	0.17	16.4	16.0	0.40
Nene	60	61	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.25	-3	-6	3	15.2	15.1	0.10	15.9	17.3	-1.41
Andre Miller	73	73	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.26	-3	-6	3	14.5	17.6	-3.15	17.1	13.4	3.69
Earl Boykins	50	49	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.00	-15	6	-21	15.1	15.1	-0.02	15.3	17.6	-2.27
Kenyon Martin	77	75	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.17	-10	1	-11	15.7	12.1	3.66	16.9	13.6	3.31
Carmelo Anthony	65	64	-0.77	0.27	-1.04	-0.07	-24	15	-39	15.9	13.3	2.65	15.7	18.0	-2.34

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	71	73	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.24	12	-3	15	17.0	13.9	3.08	15.7	12.9	2.75
Manu Ginobili	55	57	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.23	11	-2	13	16.3	16.4	-0.02	16.4	13.1	3.30
Tony Parker	65	68	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.05	15	-6	21	16.2	16.7	-0.48	15.8	13.1	2.71
Bruce Bowen	80	79	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.21	9	0	9	15.5	22.2	-6.63	15.5	13.0	2.48
Robert Horry	44	43	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.17	3	6	-3	16.5	16.2	0.24	15.1	15.2	-0.11
Malik Rose	15	16	0.09	0.41	-0.33	-0.03	4	5	-1	16.7	16.3	0.46	11.9	15.8	-3.87
Rasho Nesterovic	52	52	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.10	-1	10	-11	15.2	17.9	-2.66	15.4	14.8	0.54
Brent Barry	24	24	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.02	1	8	-7	18.4	15.6	2.75	14.6	15.3	-0.74
Devin Brown	21	21	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.02	-1	10	-11	16.3	16.4	-0.09	12.0	16.1	-4.12
Beno Udrih	28	27	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.17	-8	17	-25	17.3	15.9	1.35	12.6	16.2	-3.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.69,0.65,0.65,0.61,0.66,0.78,0.72,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.74,0.82,0.8,0.76,0.7,0.77,0.8,0.72,0.74,0.77,0.68,0.66,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.87,0.92,0.89,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 84, MIA 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.68,0.58,0.58,0.66,0.65,0.69,0.68,0.66,0.73,0.76,0.75,0.78,0.75,0.77,0.8,0.72,0.76,0.76,0.68,0.8,0.81,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.78,0.7,0.76,0.81,0.82,0.84,0.87,0.89,0.95,0.85,0.92,1	94.8%
NOP 84, CLE 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.69,0.71,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.76,0.77,0.77,0.77,0.85,0.8,0.8,0.74,0.8,0.7,0.75,0.67,0.74,0.71,0.81,0.8,0.81,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.67,0.85,0.83,0.94,0.97,0.93,0.99,1,1,1	94.7%
POR 88, HOU 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.62,0.6,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.66,0.76,0.79,0.83,0.8,0.8,0.86,0.82,0.75,0.78,0.73,0.77,0.75,0.69,0.7,0.8,0.85,0.81,0.7,0.7,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.94,0.95,0.96,1,1,1,1	94.6%