NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	88		Excitement	5.0 [833]		MVP	Yao Ming (HOU): +13.6%
Houston Rockets	102		Comeback	1.1 [974]		LVP	Kyle Lowry (HOU): -7.3%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nicolas Batum	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.01	0.02	3	86%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Travis Outlaw	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.06	-0.00	0.05	13	58%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	0.04	-0.02	0.02	15	54%	0.06	2	-0.06	11	73%	0.01
Sergio Rodriguez	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Channing Frye	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Fernandez	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	5	43%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.05
Steve Blake	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	0.01	-0.03	10	35%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Greg Oden	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.00	2	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Joel Przybilla	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Roy	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	-0.02	0.04	20	50%	0.00	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Yao Ming	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.04	-0.00	10	68%	0.16	1	-0.02	11	82%	0.03
Von Wafer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.04	-0.01	8	67%	0.12	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.00	7	56%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Luis Scola	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.10	0.01	0.03	10	80%	0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.01	11	54%	0.09	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.03
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	11	41%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.03	-0.03	0.06	12	50%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.03	0.02	3	75%	0.02	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.7	29.3	15.7	31.2	2.4	33.5	139.7
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +23.3%

HOU +14.9%

HOU +9.1%

HOU +7.4%

POR -4.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	HOU	NBA	POR	HOU	NBA
this game	17.4	18.1	15.5	111.4	122.9	106.4
season	16.7	16.3		111.0	105.9
opponent	15.2	16.0		102.7	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	16.9	16.8	18.9	17.1	17.4
HOU	18.2	17.5	18.1	18.9	18.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Przybilla	33	35	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.02	1	-15	16	17.9	17.1	0.79	18.2	18.1	0.09
Sergio Rodriguez	18	17	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.01	-3	-11	8	17.2	17.5	-0.33	18.2	18.1	0.07
Nicolas Batum	37	40	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.06	-3	-11	8	18.9	16.1	2.82	18.6	17.7	0.88
Channing Frye	12	11	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.02	-7	-7	0	19.8	17.0	2.85	17.7	18.2	-0.45
Brandon Roy	54	58	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.11	-4	-10	6	17.6	17.0	0.61	18.2	17.9	0.29
Greg Oden	20	20	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.04	-9	-5	-4	16.1	17.9	-1.76	18.2	18.1	0.10
Travis Outlaw	48	50	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.14	-6	-8	2	16.9	18.2	-1.33	17.7	18.7	-0.96
Rudy Fernandez	43	45	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.00	-13	-1	-12	16.1	19.0	-2.86	17.8	18.5	-0.75
Steve Blake	61	66	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.08	-11	-3	-8	17.5	17.2	0.33	18.1	18.2	-0.07
LaMarcus Aldridge	69	73	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.01	-15	1	-16	17.4	17.7	-0.32	18.3	16.9	1.39

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shane Battier	67	63	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.04	14	0	14	18.4	16.7	1.70	17.5	17.0	0.52
Metta World Peace	65	63	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.01	13	1	12	18.6	16.4	2.14	17.7	16.3	1.39
Charles Hayes	43	42	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.10	8	6	2	17.7	18.5	-0.83	17.7	17.1	0.68
Luis Scola	43	42	0.33	0.17	0.15	-0.11	15	-1	16	18.6	17.6	0.96	18.6	16.1	2.46
Kyle Lowry	43	41	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.07	8	6	2	17.7	18.6	-0.88	16.9	17.9	-1.02
Von Wafer	36	34	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.18	4	10	-6	17.1	18.9	-1.83	17.2	17.6	-0.42
Yao Ming	63	59	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.15	4	10	-6	18.4	17.2	1.15	17.2	18.2	-1.05
Aaron Brooks	55	51	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.01	4	10	-6	17.8	18.7	-0.90	16.6	18.9	-2.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.62,0.6,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.66,0.76,0.79,0.83,0.8,0.8,0.86,0.82,0.75,0.78,0.73,0.77,0.75,0.69,0.7,0.8,0.85,0.81,0.7,0.7,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.94,0.95,0.96,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 100, TOR 113	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.62,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.73,0.69,0.74,0.68,0.73,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.79,0.86,0.86,0.8,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.74,0.77,0.79,0.73,0.78,0.82,0.74,0.74,0.88,0.92,0.81,0.94,0.95,0.99,0.96,0.99,1,1,1	95.1%
DEN 90, SAS 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.69,0.65,0.65,0.61,0.66,0.78,0.72,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.74,0.82,0.8,0.76,0.7,0.77,0.8,0.72,0.74,0.77,0.68,0.66,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.87,0.92,0.89,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	94.6%
MIA 91, ORL 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.53,0.6,0.49,0.51,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.72,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.77,0.78,0.8,0.74,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.71,0.74,0.71,0.75,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.78,0.66,0.75,0.86,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%