NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	91		Excitement	5.0 [807]		MVP	Rashard Lewis (ORL): +14.5%
Orlando Magic	107		Comeback	1.1 [1284]		LVP	Dorell Wright (MIA): -7.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Quinn	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.12	0.02	0.00	3	100%	0.16	1	-0.02	8	75%	0.02
Luke Jackson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.00	-0.03	8	64%	0.12	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.03
Ricky Davis	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.09	-0.03	0.02	15	62%	0.07	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Jason Williams	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	-0.00	-0.02	11	46%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Alexander Johnson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	3	57%	0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Earl Barron	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	3	12%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Daequan Cook	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	7	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	0.00	0.02	11	37%	-0.04	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.04
Dorell Wright	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	17	35%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.03	-0.04	16	53%	0.14	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.12,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.03	-0.01	13	71%	0.20	6	-0.09	12	92%	0.01
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.10	0.01	0.01	9	72%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	3	100%	0.06	1	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Adonal Foyle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.00	4	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	8	57%	0.06	5	-0.08	12	67%	-0.01
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	2	44%	0.02	1	-0.04	5	80%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	7	44%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.01	7	37%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	2.7	31.1	16.5	29.3	2.6	30.5	140.8
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +21.1%

ORL +20.6%

ORL +23.5%

MIA -15.8%

ORL +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ORL	NBA	MIA	ORL	NBA
this game	16.3	15.9	15.4	101.1	120.2	105.7
season	16.0	15.1		99.0	109.9
opponent	15.6	15.4		104.6	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.6	16.1	16.6	17.9	16.3
ORL	16.7	17.4	14.0	15.6	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alexander Johnson	7	6	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.05	2	-18	20	13.4	16.5	-3.08	17.7	15.8	1.88
Dorell Wright	74	74	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.30	7	-23	30	16.0	17.4	-1.35	16.0	15.6	0.37
Mark Blount	54	52	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.08	-9	-7	-2	16.1	16.4	-0.30	16.1	15.6	0.45
Chris Quinn	33	33	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.11	-5	-11	6	16.3	16.3	0.01	15.4	16.2	-0.77
Earl Barron	29	31	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.06	-9	-7	-2	17.2	15.8	1.34	15.3	16.3	-1.00
Jason Williams	62	62	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.11	-15	-1	-14	16.4	16.0	0.39	16.1	15.5	0.56
Luke Jackson	65	64	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.18	-18	2	-20	16.2	16.5	-0.35	15.9	15.9	-0.01
Ricky Davis	79	76	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.07	-13	-3	-10	16.2	17.0	-0.84	16.2	13.9	2.33
Daequan Cook	47	47	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	0.06	-20	4	-24	16.8	15.7	1.09	15.4	16.5	-1.12

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwight Howard	81	82	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.08	13	3	10	15.6	18.6	-2.98	16.2	16.7	-0.53
Keyon Dooling	43	43	0.39	0.11	0.29	-0.05	15	1	14	15.4	16.3	-0.91	17.4	15.2	2.25
Keith Bogans	49	51	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.14	8	8	0	15.7	16.2	-0.53	15.6	17.1	-1.43
Rashard Lewis	61	61	0.34	0.16	0.19	-0.07	14	2	12	16.4	14.8	1.59	17.6	13.4	4.16
Hedo Turkoglu	71	72	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.00	11	5	6	15.6	17.2	-1.58	15.8	18.3	-2.51
Carlos Arroyo	64	64	0.29	0.21	0.07	-0.01	10	6	4	16.4	14.7	1.71	16.4	16.0	0.32
Jameer Nelson	25	26	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.04	6	10	-4	14.7	16.4	-1.71	16.0	16.4	-0.32
Maurice Evans	43	43	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	16	-16	16.5	15.4	1.07	14.8	17.6	-2.87
Adonal Foyle	8	8	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.05	3	13	-10	18.6	15.6	2.98	16.7	16.2	0.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.53,0.6,0.49,0.51,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.72,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.77,0.78,0.8,0.74,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.71,0.74,0.71,0.75,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.78,0.66,0.75,0.86,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 97, DET 107	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.66,0.71,0.66,0.73,0.78,0.84,0.81,0.78,0.72,0.75,0.8,0.84,0.77,0.82,0.78,0.83,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.75,0.79,0.81,0.85,0.87,0.82,0.8,0.83,0.95,0.94,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%
SAS 101, LAC 106	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.49,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.68,0.79,0.78,0.83,0.83,0.84,0.82,0.81,0.77,0.85,0.76,0.74,0.74,0.83,0.84,0.82,0.86,0.85,0.81,0.7,0.88,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.8%
ORL 95, MIA 112	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.6,0.67,0.74,0.68,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.84,0.79,0.84,0.87,0.81,0.76,0.82,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.81,0.78,0.7,0.89,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1	94.6%