NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	95		Excitement	5.1 [805]		MVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): +21.6%
Miami Heat	112		Comeback	1.1 [958]		LVP	Darrell Armstrong (ORL): -10.1%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pat Garrity	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.15	0.04	0.01	16	74%	0.21	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Mike Miller	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.00	0.03	10	62%	0.02	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Horace Grant	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.00	7	57%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Ewing	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Don Reid	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Steven Hunter	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Monty Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.05	4	40%	0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Jud Buechler	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Hudson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	8	41%	-0.00	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.03
Tracy McGrady	-0.05	0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	0.03	20	54%	-0.00	2	-0.05	8	37%	-0.07
Darrell Armstrong	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.03	-0.02	4	20%	-0.07	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.15	0.09	0.02	16	73%	0.23	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Jim Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.05	-0.01	7	60%	0.11	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.01	-0.03	9	50%	0.05	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendall Gill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	7	43%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	40%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	11	58%	0.07	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.06	11	59%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	0.03	7	75%	0.05	3	-0.08	6	83%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	0.01	14	64%	0.09	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	2.3	29.6	17.4	20.6	2.4	26.5	124.6
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +31.5%

MIA +5.3%

MIA +23.9%

ORL -10.9%

MIA +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIA	NBA	ORL	MIA	NBA
this game	14.8	17.2	15.6	106.7	123.1	102.3
season	14.6	16.5		104.6	96.6
opponent	15.8	15.8		98.2	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.9	14.2	15.1	14.9	14.8
MIA	15.8	15.8	17.6	20.0	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steven Hunter	3	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-15	13	11.3	14.9	-3.57	15.3	17.2	-1.92
Jud Buechler	11	11	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	0.07	-3	-14	11	12.4	15.1	-2.76	16.0	17.3	-1.35
Horace Grant	49	49	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.06	0	-17	17	15.1	14.4	0.75	16.2	18.4	-2.17
Patrick Ewing	21	21	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.04	-3	-14	11	15.0	14.7	0.28	18.1	16.9	1.18
Pat Garrity	66	67	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.06	-4	-13	9	14.6	15.2	-0.58	17.7	15.7	2.06
Darrell Armstrong	58	59	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.03	-7	-10	3	15.0	14.4	0.61	17.5	16.7	0.77
Monty Williams	21	22	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.10	-11	-6	-5	14.3	14.9	-0.66	16.5	17.4	-0.91
Don Reid	17	18	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.02	-12	-5	-7	14.2	14.9	-0.75	16.1	17.5	-1.41
Tracy McGrady	75	78	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.12	-10	-7	-3	15.0	13.6	1.44	17.3	16.6	0.67
Mike Miller	79	80	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.01	-14	-3	-11	15.1	12.7	2.35	17.4	15.4	2.07
Troy Hudson	45	47	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	0.00	-19	2	-21	14.7	14.9	-0.15	17.3	17.1	0.19

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jim Jackson	59	56	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.00	20	-3	23	16.9	17.7	-0.77	14.6	15.1	-0.48
LaPhonso Ellis	51	47	0.50	-0.00	0.51	-0.05	19	-2	21	16.6	17.9	-1.36	15.0	14.5	0.54
Eddie House	33	32	0.46	0.04	0.41	-0.01	16	1	15	16.8	17.4	-0.58	15.3	14.5	0.77
Alonzo Mourning	64	64	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.09	11	6	5	17.0	17.7	-0.73	15.1	14.0	1.04
Eddie Jones	77	77	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.12	8	9	-1	17.4	16.2	1.15	14.9	14.2	0.72
Vladimir Stepania	19	16	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.03	5	12	-7	16.2	17.4	-1.23	13.5	15.1	-1.57
Rod Strickland	61	60	0.09	0.41	-0.33	-0.00	3	14	-11	17.6	16.4	1.22	14.3	15.7	-1.34
Kendall Gill	35	35	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.00	1	16	-15	16.5	17.6	-1.14	15.3	14.5	0.78
Mike James	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	14	-11	15.3	17.2	-1.92	12.5	14.8	-2.34
Brian Grant	53	56	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.01	-1	18	-19	18.8	15.0	3.75	14.6	15.1	-0.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.6,0.67,0.74,0.68,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.84,0.79,0.84,0.87,0.81,0.76,0.82,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.81,0.78,0.7,0.89,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 77, ORL 89	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.76,0.71,0.76,0.69,0.64,0.7,0.78,0.76,0.72,0.8,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.76,0.73,0.67,0.72,0.87,0.82,0.78,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%
MIA 73, CHH 83	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.84,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.78,0.73,0.68,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.63,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.85,0.92,0.93,0.89,0.94,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1	94.7%
MIA 91, ORL 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.53,0.6,0.49,0.51,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.72,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.77,0.78,0.8,0.74,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.71,0.74,0.71,0.75,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.78,0.66,0.75,0.86,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%