NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	122		Excitement	8.0 [230]		MVP	Al Horford (ATL): +40.8%
Atlanta Hawks	127		Comeback	3.6 [784]		LVP	Joe Johnson (ATL): -15.0%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Tolliver	0.19	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19	0.10	0.08	-0.01	16	59%	0.19	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
CJ Watson	0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.12	0.05	0.03	9	69%	0.16	1	-0.02	11	91%	0.02
Stephen Curry	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.09,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,0.1	0.09	0.02	0.01	19	74%	0.34	7	-0.24	4	100%	0.03
Corey Maggette	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.02	0.00	12	56%	0.09	0	0.00	8	75%	0.01
Anthony Morrow	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.00	19	50%	0.05	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.00
Ronny Turiaf	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	4	60%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Chris Hunter	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	5	40%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.29,0.41	0.41	0.18	0.23	0.00	15	69%	0.41	0	0.00	9	78%	0.07
Mike Bibby	0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.26,0.26,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.31	0.27	0.06	0.02	10	115%	0.31	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21	0.21	0.12	0.06	-0.03	15	66%	0.26	2	-0.05	14	64%	-0.05
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.14	0.14	0.02	0.13	0.00	13	47%	0.14	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.05	0.00	2	100%	0.12	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario West	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	10	50%	-0.02	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Joe Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15	-0.15	-0.15	-0.02	-0.01	14	30%	-0.08	3	-0.07	5	80%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.7	2.5	30.2	16.8	26.4	1.8	40.3	147.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +28.3%

ATL +3.5%

ATL +8.5%

ATL +10.2%

GSW -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	ATL	NBA	GSW	ATL	NBA
this game	13.7	16.6	15.3	128.4	133.7	106.0
season	13.4	16.0		106.5	109.4
opponent	15.8	14.8		106.0	110.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	11.9	14.0	17.4	12.2	13.7
ATL	15.8	16.0	16.9	17.8	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reggie Williams	14	16	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.03	-3	-2	-1	13.4	13.8	-0.35	12.6	17.4	-4.77
Ronny Turiaf	73	73	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.13	1	-6	7	13.5	14.6	-1.18	16.5	16.7	-0.18
Anthony Tolliver	87	88	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.40	9	-14	23	13.1	20.9	-7.81	16.8	13.9	2.95
CJ Watson	70	69	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.18	-4	-1	-3	13.7	13.9	-0.26	15.9	18.3	-2.37
Corey Maggette	44	43	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.47	3	-8	11	13.0	14.4	-1.40	18.7	14.8	3.89
Chris Hunter	22	22	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.08	-13	8	-21	16.8	12.8	3.96	18.2	16.1	2.13
Stephen Curry	95	95	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.35	-5	0	-5	13.7	0.0	13.73	16.6	0.0	16.59
Anthony Morrow	70	69	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.18	-13	8	-21	14.5	11.6	2.83	16.1	18.0	-1.89

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Smith	87	88	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.33	12	-7	19	16.8	14.6	2.15	14.0	10.6	3.41
Jamal Crawford	56	57	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.45	3	2	1	17.4	15.4	1.96	13.0	14.8	-1.82
Marvin Williams	70	71	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.30	6	-1	7	16.5	16.9	-0.39	14.5	11.5	3.03
Al Horford	73	72	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.17	9	-4	13	16.4	17.3	-0.89	14.7	10.7	4.06
Joe Johnson	73	71	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.28	0	5	-5	17.1	14.9	2.25	13.8	13.5	0.30
Mike Bibby	64	61	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.06	9	-4	13	15.5	18.9	-3.39	15.0	11.4	3.56
Zaza Pachulia	22	23	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.18	-4	9	-13	17.3	16.4	0.89	10.7	14.7	-4.06
Mario West	6	6	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.01	1	4	-3	12.3	16.9	-4.54	16.2	13.6	2.60
Maurice Evans	10	11	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.02	-1	6	-7	15.1	16.8	-1.66	8.7	14.4	-5.65
Jeff Teague	14	15	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.09	-10	15	-25	18.0	16.3	1.65	8.5	14.7	-6.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.64,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.38,0.29,0.35,0.4,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.62,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.28,0.29,0.26,0.32,0.45,0.48,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.74,0.86,0.89,0.85,0.74,0.71,0.78,0.69,0.78,0.85,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 91, LAC 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.7,0.59,0.51,0.39,0.33,0.36,0.35,0.41,0.59,0.53,0.56,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.76,0.84,0.69,0.71,0.78,0.75,0.89,0.91,0.9,1	91.6%
NJN 85, MIA 91	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.43,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.41,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.7,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.59,0.73,0.76,0.89,0.85,0.96,1	91.3%
LAC 104, DEN 109	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.37,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.32,0.55,0.38,0.41,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.66,0.78,0.85,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.6,0.83,0.94,0.93,0.98,0.96,1	91.2%