NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	85		Excitement	3.8 [1039]		MVP	Channing Frye (PHX): +9.7%
Phoenix Suns	101		Comeback	3.5 [452]		LVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): -15.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nene	0.06	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	0.01	0.03	10	64%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.02	0.02	12	72%	0.10	4	-0.08	5	100%	0.03
Joey Graham	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	6	44%	0.02	2	-0.05	4	25%	-0.03
J.R. Smith	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.03	-0.00	0.07	14	57%	-0.03	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.10	-0.00	-0.05	7	43%	0.01	5	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.13,-0.14,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.12	-0.02	0.02	21	36%	-0.10	2	-0.05	5	40%	-0.04

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Channing Frye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.12	0.00	0.02	8	73%	0.10	0	0.00	6	100%	0.01
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	7	75%	0.09	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.01	-0.03	9	60%	0.07	1	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Grant Hill	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	14	54%	0.10	4	-0.07	7	100%	0.02
Steve Nash	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	8	52%	0.03	2	-0.03	5	100%	0.02
Robin Lopez	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	37%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Earl Clark	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taylor Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lou Amundson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	7	39%	0.02	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.03
Jared Dudley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	3	33%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Amar'e Stoudemire	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.01	16	51%	0.03	4	-0.06	5	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	2.6	30.2	15.7	27.2	2.8	30.0	135.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +26.6%

PHX +12.0%

PHX +2.7%

PHX +8.8%

PHX +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	PHX	NBA	DEN	PHX	NBA
this game	15.8	16.2	15.3	94.4	112.2	106.0
season	14.4	14.4		110.3	113.5
opponent	15.5	15.5		109.0	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	16.2	18.8	14.4	13.8	15.8
PHX	13.8	14.0	16.3	21.2	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joey Graham	4	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-19	22	9.0	16.1	-7.13	17.0	16.2	0.85
Chris Andersen	14	14	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.01	-2	-14	12	13.9	16.2	-2.31	16.4	16.1	0.28
Malik Allen	15	16	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.04	-4	-12	8	12.9	16.4	-3.53	20.6	15.2	5.40
Carmelo Anthony	72	71	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.04	-5	-11	6	15.8	16.0	-0.24	15.6	18.4	-2.76
Anthony Carter	21	20	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.16	-2	-14	12	16.7	15.6	1.12	18.5	15.5	2.97
Kenyon Martin	63	62	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.05	-6	-10	4	15.6	16.4	-0.80	15.0	18.9	-3.93
Arron Afflalo	61	62	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.17	-18	2	-20	16.0	15.3	0.74	16.2	16.2	-0.04
Chauncey Billups	72	73	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.13	-19	3	-22	16.1	14.6	1.57	15.4	19.5	-4.12
Nene	68	68	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.08	-12	-4	-8	16.8	12.7	4.14	15.9	17.1	-1.19
J.R. Smith	60	60	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.09	-15	-1	-14	15.7	16.0	-0.33	17.4	13.8	3.53

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Goran Dragic	31	31	0.55	-0.05	0.59	-0.04	20	-4	24	16.5	16.0	0.45	16.5	15.4	1.12
Channing Frye	57	57	0.54	-0.04	0.58	-0.08	21	-5	26	16.8	15.2	1.54	16.0	15.4	0.61
Grant Hill	68	67	0.53	-0.03	0.57	-0.02	19	-3	22	16.1	16.5	-0.47	16.6	13.6	3.02
Lou Amundson	38	39	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.09	15	1	14	16.5	16.0	0.54	16.1	15.6	0.47
Jared Dudley	37	38	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.03	11	5	6	17.1	15.5	1.61	16.6	15.3	1.28
Jason Richardson	67	67	0.18	0.32	-0.15	-0.06	8	8	0	15.7	17.7	-1.97	15.4	16.9	-1.48
Earl Clark	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	19	-22	17.0	16.2	0.85	9.0	16.1	-7.13
Taylor Griffin	4	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	19	-22	17.0	16.2	0.85	9.0	16.1	-7.13
Amar'e Stoudemire	52	51	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	-0.05	1	15	-14	16.0	16.5	-0.54	15.6	16.1	-0.47
Robin Lopez	33	33	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.11	-5	21	-26	15.2	16.8	-1.54	15.4	16.0	-0.61
Steve Nash	59	59	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.07	-4	20	-24	16.0	16.5	-0.45	15.4	16.5	-1.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.32,0.37,0.33,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.26,0.38,0.35,0.44,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.64,0.69,0.7,0.84,0.76,0.82,0.87,0.85,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.91,0.93,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 87, WAS 107	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.41,0.37,0.43,0.37,0.33,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.64,0.72,0.75,0.84,0.84,0.77,0.87,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%
PHX 98, DEN 132	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.28,0.26,0.22,0.26,0.28,0.26,0.34,0.42,0.4,0.49,0.56,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.73,0.75,0.79,0.86,0.91,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%
CHI 72, MIA 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.37,0.31,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.44,0.51,0.48,0.56,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.8,0.87,0.77,0.85,0.87,0.88,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%