NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	95		Excitement	4.1 [981]		MVP	Andrew Bogut (MIL): +11.4%
Milwaukee Bucks	115		Comeback	1.0 [1061]		LVP	Darren Collison (NOH): -4.0%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron Gray	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	8	61%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Emeka Okafor	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.00	0.03	5	67%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Marcus Thornton	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.06	-0.03	0.01	21	52%	0.01	1	-0.00	6	100%	0.02
Julian Wright	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.04	5	40%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Marks	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	67%	0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	0.00
David West	-0.01	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.02	16	53%	0.04	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
James Posey	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.10	0.01	-0.05	6	17%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darren Collison	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	0.01	0.06	16	54%	0.03	3	-0.07	9	89%	0.03

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.13	0.01	0.03	21	62%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	-0.00	0.01	11	60%	0.10	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.04
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	7	59%	0.05	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.01	7	76%	0.10	3	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Carlos Delfino	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.03	-0.00	8	56%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.02	2	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	0.00	0.04	4	87%	0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Primoz Brezec	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Royal Ivey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	11	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	10	50%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	10	43%	-0.01	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	0.7	27.2	15.8	24.2	2.4	27.2	124.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +36.0%

NOH -4.4%

MIL +12.7%

MIL +6.5%

NOH -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	MIL	NBA	NOH	MIL	NBA
this game	16.1	14.5	15.3	100.0	123.7	106.0
season	15.5	15.5		106.0	103.3
opponent	15.5	15.2		101.8	108.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	14.8	17.6	18.3	14.3	16.1
MIL	12.9	14.3	15.1	15.7	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Gray	14	15	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.05	-1	-19	18	14.4	16.4	-2.02	15.7	14.2	1.50
Sean Marks	11	10	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.12	-4	-16	12	14.1	16.4	-2.33	15.5	14.3	1.15
James Posey	54	52	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.08	-6	-14	8	15.4	17.1	-1.63	14.6	14.4	0.19
Morris Peterson	7	8	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.08	-6	-14	8	19.4	15.9	3.54	15.0	14.4	0.58
Julian Wright	51	49	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.11	-9	-11	2	15.3	17.2	-1.93	14.6	14.3	0.34
Darren Collison	82	82	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.06	-9	-11	2	16.4	14.8	1.60	14.6	13.5	1.16
Marcus Thornton	81	79	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.02	-11	-9	-2	15.9	17.5	-1.59	14.5	14.2	0.30
David West	71	70	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.05	-13	-7	-6	16.3	15.8	0.42	14.3	15.1	-0.82
Emeka Okafor	45	44	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.04	-18	-2	-16	17.4	15.0	2.34	14.2	14.8	-0.60
Peja Stojakovic	59	56	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	0.10	-23	3	-26	16.9	14.9	2.03	13.9	15.4	-1.46

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Salmons	63	64	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.07	15	5	10	14.3	14.8	-0.53	16.3	15.8	0.51
Carlos Delfino	68	70	0.50	0.00	0.49	-0.06	19	1	18	14.3	15.0	-0.78	17.1	13.6	3.46
Brandon Jennings	46	46	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.00	15	5	10	14.6	14.4	0.23	17.8	14.6	3.30
Luc Mbah a Moute	41	42	0.36	0.14	0.21	-0.02	13	7	6	15.1	14.0	1.07	19.0	13.9	5.16
Andrew Bogut	57	57	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.02	11	9	2	14.4	14.6	-0.18	17.2	14.5	2.70
Kurt Thomas	31	33	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.05	7	13	-6	14.4	14.5	-0.08	14.9	16.8	-1.85
Jerry Stackhouse	51	53	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.08	5	15	-10	14.3	14.7	-0.35	14.5	18.2	-3.75
Luke Ridnour	42	44	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.03	3	17	-14	14.2	14.7	-0.47	14.9	17.3	-2.39
Charlie Bell	15	16	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.15	7	13	-6	15.5	14.3	1.18	16.9	16.0	0.95
Ersan Ilyasova	41	40	0.01	0.49	-0.49	-0.02	1	19	-18	14.3	14.6	-0.28	13.1	18.3	-5.18
Primoz Brezec	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	18	-16	15.6	14.4	1.19	11.8	16.4	-4.59
Royal Ivey	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	18	-16	15.6	14.4	1.19	11.8	16.4	-4.59

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.65,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.78,0.75,0.84,0.91,0.89,0.84,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 92, PHX 110	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.68,0.62,0.69,0.65,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.67,0.76,0.74,0.83,0.7,0.79,0.87,0.92,0.86,0.87,0.83,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%
GSW 98, SAC 115	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.53,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.85,0.87,0.88,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%
GSW 105, CHI 119	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.91,0.88,0.9,0.85,0.92,0.92,0.97,0.94,0.9,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%