NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	90		Excitement	7.7 [262]		MVP	Tony Parker (SAS): +13.9%
Indiana Pacers	87		Comeback	3.8 [420]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -31.6%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0.14	0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.21,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.12	0.04	0.02	20	61%	0.19	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.02
Manu Ginobili	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.1,0.1	0.03	0.02	-0.05	14	55%	0.18	2	-0.09	5	60%	-0.01
Richard Jefferson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.01	0.08	0.00	10	50%	0.13	1	-0.04	6	100%	0.04
Keith Bogans	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.02	9	39%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03	-0.07	0.02	-0.02	11	27%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.32	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.23,-0.23,-0.25,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32	-0.26	-0.08	-0.03	23	17%	-0.27	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.07	0.00	12	54%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Brandon Rush	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.03	0.09	0.00	12	37%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luther Head	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Solomon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roy Hibbert	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	13	50%	0.02	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	11	41%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	1	25%	-0.02	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	9	45%	0.07	3	-0.15	2	50%	-0.01
Danny Granger	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.18,-0.25,-0.25,-0.22	-0.22	0.01	-0.21	0.02	17	56%	-0.05	4	-0.17	7	86%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.4	26.5	15.3	24.5	2.5	26.5	123.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +4.9%

SAS +0.6%

SAS +40.4%

SAS +6.5%

IND -2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	IND	NBA	SAS	IND	NBA
this game	15.8	14.1	15.3	92.8	91.6	106.0
season	15.9	14.2		108.2	102.2
opponent	15.1	15.1		105.3	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.1	14.2	14.7	18.9	15.8
IND	12.7	14.0	14.7	15.4	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	68	66	1.08	-0.58	1.65	0.52	19	-16	35	16.0	15.3	0.70	14.5	13.2	1.30
George Hill	63	60	0.90	-0.40	1.31	0.64	9	-6	15	16.1	15.4	0.70	14.1	14.2	-0.04
Tony Parker	78	76	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.42	-1	4	-5	16.2	14.2	2.02	14.2	13.9	0.25
Richard Jefferson	61	58	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.27	4	-1	5	15.9	15.7	0.22	14.0	14.4	-0.47
Keith Bogans	44	43	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.31	1	2	-1	15.7	15.9	-0.24	14.7	13.7	1.09
Manu Ginobili	62	63	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.06	-2	5	-7	15.8	16.0	-0.21	14.2	14.1	0.03
Roger Mason Jr.	46	47	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.14	5	-2	7	14.8	16.8	-2.04	14.1	14.2	-0.08
Matt Bonner	25	25	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.16	-8	11	-19	16.4	15.6	0.81	14.1	14.2	-0.04
Antonio McDyess	15	15	-0.24	0.74	-0.99	-0.18	-2	5	-7	16.3	15.7	0.59	13.0	14.4	-1.36
DeJuan Blair	23	22	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	0.02	-10	13	-23	14.6	16.2	-1.61	13.0	14.5	-1.49

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Dunleavy	40	41	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.21	11	-14	25	13.7	14.5	-0.73	16.1	15.6	0.45
Roy Hibbert	63	63	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.31	9	-12	21	14.3	13.9	0.32	16.3	14.9	1.38
Earl Watson	72	74	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.48	10	-13	23	14.7	12.6	2.09	16.4	13.9	2.58
Luther Head	15	16	-0.23	-0.28	0.05	0.07	-10	7	-17	13.1	14.3	-1.20	13.2	16.3	-3.10
Dahntay Jones	17	19	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.05	-6	3	-9	14.9	14.0	0.97	13.7	16.4	-2.67
Troy Murphy	52	53	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.26	0	-3	3	14.2	14.1	0.14	16.2	15.4	0.82
Solomon Jones	16	17	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.11	-13	10	-23	13.4	14.3	-0.85	13.0	16.4	-3.44
T.J. Ford	49	50	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.28	-2	-1	-1	13.7	14.6	-0.89	15.8	15.8	0.01
Danny Granger	89	90	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.33	-5	2	-7	14.4	10.0	4.43	15.9	15.0	0.90
Brandon Rush	62	62	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.32	-9	6	-15	13.8	14.8	-0.93	16.1	15.3	0.81

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.66,0.67,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.46,0.39,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.25,0.27,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.25,0.22,0.3,0.21,0.12,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.32,0.42,0.48,0.67,0.71,0.58,0.47,0.4,0.27,0.31,0.28,0.23,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 82, TOR 78	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.39,0.34,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.27,0.21,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.15,0.18,0.23,0.27,0.44,0.38,0.43,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.24,0.16,0.22,0.08,0	92.1%
MIL 107, DET 104	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.31,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.26,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.18,0.19,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.25,0.34,0.3,0.47,0.63,0.56,0.41,0.41,0.28,0.25,0.36,0.05,0.02,0	91.8%
POR 109, SAS 100	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.3,0.37,0.35,0.26,0.25,0.3,0.16,0.23,0.29,0.19,0.34,0.33,0.4,0.54,0.62,0.71,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.22,0.06,0,0	91.4%