NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	104		Excitement	6.2 [551]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +34.1%
Oklahoma City Thunder	112		Comeback	1.7 [967]		LVP	Nenad Krstic (OKC): -8.6%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corey Maggette	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.1	0.12	-0.00	0.03	14	67%	0.16	2	-0.06	11	91%	0.04
CJ Watson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	-0.00	0.01	8	65%	0.11	1	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Ronny Turiaf	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	5	80%	0.07	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Coby Karl	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	60%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Stephen Curry	-0.03	0,0,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	10	58%	0.06	5	-0.09	4	100%	0.02
Anthony Tolliver	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	6	29%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Vladimir Radmanovic	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	7	57%	0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	-0.07	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07	-0.08	-0.02	-0.03	24	46%	0.08	5	-0.15	6	67%	-0.02

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.26,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.34	0.34	0.30	0.08	0.03	21	85%	0.47	4	-0.12	11	100%	0.05
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14	0.14	0.06	0.06	-0.01	14	62%	0.23	4	-0.09	17	82%	0.05
Jeff Green	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.02	11	58%	0.10	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.02	13	45%	-0.03	0	0.00	5	20%	-0.07
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.00	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.04
Eric Maynor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.08	-0.00	-0.04	1	0%	0.01	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	7	28%	-0.04	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.00
Nenad Krstic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	4	25%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	32.6	2.5	32.5	15.6	30.2	2.4	32.5	148.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +21.1%

OKC +2.6%

OKC +16.8%

OKC +6.7%

OKC +2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	OKC	NBA	GSW	OKC	NBA
this game	13.6	15.5	15.3	105.1	113.1	106.0
season	13.4	15.0		106.5	106.2
opponent	15.5	14.8		103.1	110.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.4	11.9	15.0	14.1	13.6
OKC	14.8	16.4	13.2	17.8	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
CJ Watson	48	48	0.17	-0.67	0.84	-0.42	20	-28	48	12.3	14.8	-2.55	17.4	13.7	3.71
Vladimir Radmanovic	5	5	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.01	2	-10	12	15.0	13.5	1.49	16.6	15.4	1.15
Coby Karl	48	48	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.27	4	-12	16	14.0	13.2	0.72	16.7	14.4	2.25
Ronny Turiaf	48	48	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.10	-2	-6	4	13.7	13.5	0.20	16.0	15.1	0.92
Anthony Tolliver	73	72	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.11	-7	-1	-6	13.3	14.5	-1.24	15.8	14.7	1.10
Andris Biedrins	50	50	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.22	-4	-4	0	13.6	13.5	0.11	15.1	16.0	-0.90
Stephen Curry	74	73	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.00	-18	10	-28	14.0	12.3	1.69	15.5	15.5	0.06
Corey Maggette	70	72	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.10	-15	7	-22	13.9	12.8	1.07	14.4	18.4	-4.04
Monta Ellis	79	79	-0.68	0.18	-0.85	-0.09	-20	12	-32	13.6	13.5	0.04	14.3	20.3	-6.07

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Russell Westbrook	90	92	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.22	13	-5	18	15.5	15.3	0.19	13.8	10.3	3.55
Kevin Durant	86	85	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.21	13	-5	18	14.8	20.3	-5.53	13.6	13.6	-0.07
Thabo Sefolosha	84	85	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.20	13	-5	18	15.3	16.7	-1.37	13.8	12.5	1.26
Serge Ibaka	40	39	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.33	2	6	-4	15.6	15.4	0.16	13.7	13.5	0.18
Nenad Krstic	40	40	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.07	12	-4	16	15.2	15.7	-0.51	14.6	12.9	1.70
Jeff Green	72	73	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.23	1	7	-6	16.1	14.0	2.07	14.4	11.3	3.09
James Harden	41	39	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.03	1	7	-6	16.0	15.2	0.84	12.3	14.4	-2.11
Eric Maynor	24	23	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.11	-7	15	-22	16.2	15.3	0.93	11.2	14.3	-3.09
Nick Collison	18	19	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.06	-8	16	-24	16.0	15.4	0.60	11.6	14.0	-2.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.59,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.39,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.66,0.64,0.76,0.74,0.75,0.72,0.85,0.95,0.93,0.92,0.95,0.9,0.86,0.85,0.9,0.81,0.93,0.89,0.93,0.97,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 100, CHH 112	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.62,0.65,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.43,0.57,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.69,0.83,0.78,0.85,0.87,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.88,0.96,0.89,0.97,1,1,1,1,1	93.8%
DET 88, NYK 100	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.44,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.74,0.74,0.82,0.9,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.92,0.96,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1	93.8%
DET 124, HOU 126	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.57,0.72,0.66,0.52,0.64,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.86,0.82,0.87,0.92,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.87,0.93,0.99,0.94,0.99,0.94,0.92,1	93.6%