NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	103		Excitement	6.7 [450]		MVP	Andrea Bargnani (TOR): +25.0%
Toronto Raptors	111		Comeback	3.1 [544]		LVP	Rafer Alston (MIA): -12.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jermaine O'Neal	0.25	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.14,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.14	0.11	0.00	16	65%	0.25	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Udonis Haslem	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.02	0.07	-0.02	12	50%	0.10	0	0.00	8	75%	0.02
Dwyane Wade	0.09	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.11	-0.01	0.01	25	60%	0.18	3	-0.09	8	100%	0.04
Dorell Wright	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	5	64%	0.05	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Michael Beasley	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	5	60%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	2	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Joel Anthony	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Quentin Richardson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	7	36%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	16	31%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.16	0.09	-0.00	19	71%	0.27	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.12	0.08	0.00	5	100%	0.20	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	-0.02	0.09	-0.02	22	48%	0.13	2	-0.04	6	33%	-0.06
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.03	-0.04	3	117%	0.11	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.05	0.01	6	60%	0.10	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.01
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.00	6	79%	0.11	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.04	0.06	-0.01	5	43%	0.06	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.04
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	0.00	6	40%	0.02	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.02
Sonny Weems	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	0.02	9	48%	-0.04	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	1.8	30.1	15.7	22.8	1.8	32.2	130.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +60.3%

MIA -5.2%

TOR +9.7%

MIA -11.9%

MIA -2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	TOR	NBA	MIA	TOR	NBA
this game	16.3	14.5	15.3	109.6	119.4	106.0
season	16.2	15.0		104.4	109.6
opponent	15.5	15.4		111.5	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.9	16.2	19.1	15.3	16.3
TOR	14.5	12.5	13.6	17.5	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Quentin Richardson	49	48	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.11	8	-16	24	16.1	16.6	-0.48	14.0	15.0	-0.96
Michael Beasley	16	16	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.04	1	-9	10	17.4	16.1	1.33	14.6	14.4	0.20
Mario Chalmers	10	10	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.06	-6	-2	-4	15.9	16.4	-0.48	12.0	14.8	-2.76
Rafer Alston	75	73	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.25	4	-12	16	16.6	15.2	1.47	14.6	13.8	0.78
Jermaine O'Neal	69	68	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.25	0	-8	8	16.4	16.1	0.29	14.4	14.6	-0.13
Joel Anthony	24	24	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.05	-7	-1	-6	16.7	16.2	0.45	15.1	14.2	0.89
Dwyane Wade	84	83	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.37	1	-9	10	16.2	17.7	-1.53	14.9	10.9	3.99
James Jones	19	20	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	0.02	-15	7	-22	16.1	16.4	-0.28	13.3	14.8	-1.48
Udonis Haslem	78	77	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.23	-9	1	-10	16.1	17.4	-1.33	14.4	14.6	-0.20
Dorell Wright	46	46	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.12	-17	9	-26	16.3	16.4	-0.09	14.7	14.3	0.38

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	73	76	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.26	11	-3	14	14.8	13.3	1.42	16.6	15.1	1.51
Jose Calderon	45	46	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.16	10	-2	12	14.7	14.2	0.44	16.0	16.6	-0.60
Marco Belinelli	43	43	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.02	12	-4	16	14.2	14.7	-0.56	15.8	16.8	-0.95
Amir Johnson	41	40	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.00	12	-4	16	13.8	15.0	-1.22	16.4	16.3	0.08
Antoine Wright	32	33	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.31	1	7	-6	16.4	13.4	2.96	15.4	16.9	-1.49
Sonny Weems	52	52	0.15	0.35	-0.21	-0.12	9	-1	10	13.1	16.2	-3.19	17.5	14.9	2.66
Hedo Turkoglu	60	61	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.29	-5	13	-18	14.6	14.2	0.48	16.0	17.0	-0.99
Andrea Bargnani	71	71	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.30	-8	16	-24	14.7	13.6	1.14	16.2	16.8	-0.60
Jarrett Jack	48	48	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.11	-2	10	-12	14.2	14.7	-0.44	16.6	16.0	0.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.38,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.54,0.48,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.34,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.59,0.52,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.83,0.88,0.87,0.76,0.87,0.95,0.84,0.86,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 89, TOR 95	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.39,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.43,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.54,0.65,0.62,0.7,0.71,0.64,0.62,0.74,0.85,0.89,0.77,0.83,0.76,0.9,0.9,0.85,0.93,0.95,1	94.3%
IND 86, CLE 98	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.4,0.49,0.42,0.52,0.42,0.48,0.62,0.56,0.44,0.4,0.56,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.87,0.81,0.9,0.92,0.78,0.9,0.97,1,1,1	93.5%
IND 88, SEA 99	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.64,0.7,0.81,0.79,0.79,0.81,0.74,0.76,0.9,0.9,0.96,0.97,1,1	93.5%