NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	115		Excitement	7.6 [289]		MVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): +27.8%
Phoenix Suns	104		Comeback	1.2 [354]		LVP	Steve Nash (PHX): -22.9%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Rose	0.28	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.20	0.09	0.02	21	71%	0.29	1	-0.01	3	33%	-0.04
John Salmons	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.09	0.18	-0.00	9	78%	0.30	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0.22	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.22	0.13	0.10	0.01	17	62%	0.22	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Joakim Noah	0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.06	9	68%	0.11	1	-0.02	10	90%	0.02
Brad Miller	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
James Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	-0.03	0.03	12	54%	0.02	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.00
Taj Gibson	-0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	6	33%	-0.07	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.03
Tyrus Thomas	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	7	19%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Channing Frye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.11	0.02	0.04	10	64%	0.09	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.01
Robin Lopez	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	0.01	0.02	4	75%	0.08	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Amar'e Stoudemire	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.02	0.02	15	57%	0.09	1	-0.02	10	70%	-0.02
Grant Hill	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.00	0.03	15	53%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jared Dudley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.1,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.02	-0.00	6	60%	0.07	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.03
Leandro Barbosa	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	7	36%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	8	31%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lou Amundson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	17	35%	-0.07	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.15	-0.09	-0.02	12	33%	-0.05	5	-0.18	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	3.6	31.2	19.7	27.0	3.5	43.4	153.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +56.1%

CHI +4.3%

PHX -35.9%

CHI +20.8%

CHI +4.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	PHX	NBA	CHI	PHX	NBA
this game	14.9	15.1	15.3	121.1	107.2	106.0
season	14.7	14.4		101.9	113.5
opponent	15.5	15.7		109.0	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	12.6	14.3	16.4	17.0	14.9
PHX	14.1	17.0	14.2	15.1	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kirk Hinrich	77	79	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.04	18	-7	25	14.6	16.2	-1.59	14.8	16.3	-1.56
Derrick Rose	87	88	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.30	6	5	1	15.1	12.6	2.52	14.9	16.6	-1.65
Luol Deng	80	79	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.02	15	-4	19	14.6	16.8	-2.21	14.6	16.9	-2.31
Joakim Noah	52	52	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.13	9	2	7	13.8	16.3	-2.45	15.1	15.0	0.03
John Salmons	46	49	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.16	6	5	1	15.8	14.1	1.68	15.3	14.8	0.53
Tyrus Thomas	42	44	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.12	6	5	1	15.1	14.8	0.28	14.3	15.7	-1.36
Taj Gibson	54	55	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.10	2	9	-7	14.9	15.0	-0.07	15.9	13.9	2.00
Brad Miller	31	33	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.01	-1	12	-13	16.2	14.3	1.87	15.8	14.7	1.19
James Johnson	6	6	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.07	-6	17	-23	16.0	14.9	1.13	17.7	14.9	2.78

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Leandro Barbosa	40	40	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.03	1	-12	13	14.2	15.7	-1.51	13.4	16.0	-2.61
Robin Lopez	46	48	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.04	-3	-8	5	14.7	15.4	-0.66	14.0	15.9	-1.94
Amar'e Stoudemire	72	72	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.14	2	-13	15	15.5	13.9	1.54	15.0	14.7	0.26
Grant Hill	59	59	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.02	-5	-6	1	14.8	15.5	-0.76	14.5	15.6	-1.13
Goran Dragic	29	26	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.07	-6	-5	-1	15.7	14.8	0.90	15.1	14.9	0.25
Steve Nash	68	69	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.11	-5	-6	1	14.8	15.7	-0.90	14.9	15.1	-0.25
Jared Dudley	38	36	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.16	-6	-5	-1	15.5	14.8	0.76	15.6	14.5	1.13
Lou Amundson	25	23	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.03	-13	2	-15	13.9	15.5	-1.54	14.7	15.0	-0.26
Channing Frye	51	47	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.22	-8	-3	-5	15.4	14.7	0.66	15.9	14.0	1.94
Jason Richardson	57	55	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.14	-12	1	-13	15.7	14.2	1.51	16.0	13.4	2.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.32,0.32,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.35,0.31,0.33,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.37,0.48,0.3,0.3,0.38,0.38,0.32,0.26,0.12,0.06,0.15,0.11,0.03,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 78, CHH 66	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.36,0.32,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.34,0.26,0.26,0.27,0.33,0.33,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.45,0.4,0.52,0.52,0.38,0.41,0.4,0.48,0.38,0.3,0.25,0.33,0.27,0.17,0.11,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.8%
MIN 90, CLE 81	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.28,0.33,0.37,0.32,0.23,0.25,0.33,0.45,0.35,0.46,0.41,0.48,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.34,0.37,0.41,0.32,0.21,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0	93.5%
GSW 113, LAC 105	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.43,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.4,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.31,0.31,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.27,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.52,0.62,0.63,0.51,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.3,0.24,0.23,0.11,0.12,0.17,0.05,0.04,0.01,0,0	93.1%