NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Clippers	85		Excitement	3.9 [1023]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +11.8%
Denver Nuggets	105		Comeback	1.4 [1135]		LVP	Baron Davis (LAC): -9.0%

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Craig Smith	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.10	-0.00	0.07	14	66%	0.03	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.00
Mardy Collins	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	9	44%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Novak	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	6	53%	0.00	1	-0.00	3	100%	0.01
DeAndre Jordan	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	7	44%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Kaman	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.02	0.03	16	53%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Rasual Butler	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	5	20%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.02	-0.03	11	35%	-0.05	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.01
Al Thornton	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	7	29%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Baron Davis	-0.09	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.13	-0.01	-0.05	13	27%	-0.03	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.02	0.04	-0.05	18	54%	0.16	3	-0.05	16	75%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	7	80%	0.10	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.12	0.01	0.05	9	83%	0.13	3	-0.06	6	100%	0.04
Arron Afflalo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.01	0.02	-0.06	6	64%	0.09	3	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joey Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	1	25%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	5	43%	-0.01	1	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.09	-0.01	0.10	6	79%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	11	54%	-0.01	3	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.14	-0.01	-0.06	7	19%	-0.03	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	3.4	29.7	19.8	32.4	2.8	32.4	147.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +48.9%

DEN +4.8%

LAC -0.9%

LAC -3.2%

DEN +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAC	DEN	NBA	LAC	DEN	NBA
this game	16.3	13.9	15.3	89.5	109.4	106.0
season	15.5	14.4		101.9	110.3
opponent	15.5	15.2		106.4	108.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAC	15.2	15.8	17.1	17.2	16.3
DEN	14.2	13.0	13.0	15.5	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeAndre Jordan	13	13	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.12	5	-25	30	15.3	16.5	-1.14	13.8	13.9	-0.12
Mardy Collins	36	36	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.09	-3	-17	14	16.4	16.2	0.20	13.8	13.9	-0.16
Craig Smith	55	57	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.04	1	-21	22	15.5	17.4	-1.95	14.5	12.9	1.60
Steve Novak	29	30	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.05	1	-21	22	16.5	16.2	0.27	15.7	13.1	2.61
Al Thornton	38	39	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.12	-2	-18	16	15.8	16.6	-0.89	14.1	13.7	0.43
Rasual Butler	70	69	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.13	-16	-4	-12	16.6	15.4	1.16	13.7	14.3	-0.59
Ricky Davis	59	61	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	0.29	-26	6	-32	16.3	16.2	0.07	13.3	14.9	-1.64
Chris Kaman	52	54	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	0.08	-19	-1	-18	16.9	15.5	1.39	13.3	14.6	-1.32
Marcus Camby	50	49	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	0.13	-22	2	-24	16.6	16.0	0.60	13.2	14.5	-1.29
Baron Davis	73	72	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	0.04	-19	-1	-18	16.3	16.4	-0.09	14.1	13.3	0.78

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Arron Afflalo	64	62	0.53	-0.03	0.57	-0.17	24	-4	28	13.9	13.8	0.09	16.6	15.6	1.01
Nene	56	55	0.50	-0.00	0.50	-0.17	23	-3	26	13.0	15.1	-2.06	16.2	16.4	-0.22
Carmelo Anthony	72	72	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.02	15	5	10	13.8	14.0	-0.11	16.0	17.3	-1.39
Chauncey Billups	58	57	0.45	0.05	0.41	-0.22	23	-3	26	14.2	13.3	0.93	17.1	15.1	2.07
Kenyon Martin	78	79	0.43	0.07	0.37	-0.12	19	1	18	14.3	12.1	2.24	16.5	15.4	1.03
Chris Andersen	52	51	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.04	1	19	-18	14.1	13.6	0.57	16.3	16.3	0.04
Ty Lawson	41	41	0.05	0.45	-0.41	-0.04	3	17	-14	13.6	14.1	-0.55	15.9	16.6	-0.73
J.R. Smith	47	48	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.07	-2	22	-24	13.7	14.1	-0.42	15.9	16.7	-0.76
Malik Allen	6	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	23	-26	14.2	13.9	0.31	14.4	16.4	-2.00
Joey Graham	6	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	23	-26	14.2	13.9	0.31	14.4	16.4	-2.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.63,0.66,0.72,0.81,0.81,0.89,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 100, UTA 117	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.57,0.63,0.75,0.83,0.81,0.85,0.93,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.8%
MIL 78, IND 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.81,0.81,0.88,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%
LAL 79, DEN 105	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.41,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.6,0.66,0.78,0.83,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.88,0.93,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%