NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	107		Excitement	7.9 [231]		MVP	Chris Bosh (TOR): +35.3%
Milwaukee Bucks	113		Comeback	3.7 [435]		LVP	Brandon Jennings (MIL): -16.3%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0.35	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.27,0.27,0.3,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.27,0.32,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.35,0.35,0.35	0.28	0.09	0.02	26	66%	0.39	1	-0.04	15	93%	0.06
Amir Johnson	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.05	-0.01	4	71%	0.13	0	0.00	6	100%	0.05
Jose Calderon	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.04	0.00	9	70%	0.19	2	-0.08	5	100%	0.03
Hedo Turkoglu	0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.18,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.02	0.09	-0.00	14	46%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Wright	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sonny Weems	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	6	17%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Jack	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.03	-0.02	8	37%	0.02	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Andrea Bargnani	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15	-0.06	-0.06	0.03	13	37%	-0.07	2	-0.08	1	100%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.15	0.13	0.01	14	79%	0.36	3	-0.10	6	83%	0.03
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.05	0.15	-0.00	7	69%	0.23	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Carlos Delfino	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.11	0.07	-0.01	15	65%	0.21	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.05	0.02	9	72%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.08	0.01	6	67%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	5	30%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.08	-0.02	12	32%	-0.10	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.09	-0.06	0.01	21	35%	-0.15	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	2.5	31.1	14.8	24.7	0.8	39.4	137.1
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +37.7%

TOR -23.7%

MIL +21.8%

MIL +15.2%

TOR -1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIL	NBA	TOR	MIL	NBA
this game	15.1	16.2	15.3	115.1	124.2	106.0
season	15.0	15.5		109.6	103.3
opponent	15.5	15.5		101.8	111.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	16.1	14.0	16.5	13.8	15.1
MIL	16.6	16.7	14.1	17.5	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sonny Weems	13	12	0.15	-0.65	0.80	0.04	4	-10	14	15.5	15.0	0.51	16.2	16.2	-0.06
Marco Belinelli	7	6	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.00	2	-8	10	9.7	15.5	-5.82	21.7	15.8	5.83
Amir Johnson	44	41	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.03	2	-8	10	13.7	16.4	-2.73	17.8	14.9	2.84
Jose Calderon	42	42	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.25	6	-12	18	12.3	17.4	-5.04	16.8	15.7	1.10
Antoine Wright	48	45	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.29	0	-6	6	13.4	17.0	-3.60	17.3	15.1	2.20
DeMar DeRozan	50	49	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.04	-10	4	-14	16.4	13.5	2.91	15.2	17.4	-2.11
Chris Bosh	83	82	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.41	2	-8	10	14.7	18.5	-3.81	16.2	16.8	-0.62
Jarrett Jack	54	54	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.14	-11	5	-16	16.8	12.7	4.05	15.3	17.6	-2.32
Hedo Turkoglu	65	65	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.29	-9	3	-12	16.2	12.5	3.72	16.1	16.5	-0.45
Andrea Bargnani	59	59	-0.68	0.18	-0.87	-0.21	-16	10	-26	16.7	12.2	4.51	15.2	18.1	-2.84

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charlie Bell	65	65	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.27	12	-6	18	16.1	16.6	-0.55	16.3	12.4	3.87
Luc Mbah a Moute	58	58	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.30	9	-3	12	15.5	17.4	-1.89	16.3	13.1	3.13
Brandon Jennings	68	69	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.22	8	-2	10	15.6	18.0	-2.44	16.2	11.9	4.34
Andrew Bogut	60	62	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.17	9	-3	12	15.9	16.8	-0.84	16.8	11.7	5.03
Ersan Ilyasova	50	51	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.18	6	0	6	16.0	16.5	-0.44	13.1	17.5	-4.34
Carlos Delfino	73	75	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.29	2	4	-2	16.2	16.1	0.14	15.1	14.9	0.26
Luke Ridnour	23	24	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.11	-2	8	-10	18.0	15.6	2.44	11.9	16.2	-4.34
Jerry Stackhouse	34	36	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.13	-6	12	-18	17.4	15.5	1.95	12.8	16.5	-3.69
Hakim Warrick	8	8	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.00	-3	9	-12	21.0	15.8	5.24	11.7	15.4	-3.66
Francisco Elson	16	17	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	-0.04	-5	11	-16	15.9	16.3	-0.34	12.5	15.7	-3.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.26,0.24,0.28,0.36,0.3,0.42,0.31,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.52,0.59,0.55,0.63,0.63,0.48,0.62,0.52,0.62,0.58,0.68,0.79,0.66,0.73,0.8,0.71,0.85,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 102, WAS 112	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.41,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.45,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.29,0.25,0.3,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.52,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.52,0.71,0.8,0.72,0.69,0.71,0.78,0.81,0.9,0.94,1,1	92.2%
CHH 89, LAC 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.4,0.45,0.55,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.73,0.67,0.56,0.58,0.52,0.71,0.67,0.68,0.83,0.71,0.78,0.75,0.85,0.9,0.74,1	92.1%
LAC 88, MIA 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.56,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.58,0.44,0.57,0.71,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.72,0.89,0.89,0.93,1,1	91.9%