NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	97		Excitement	7.4 [315]		MVP	Brendan Haywood (WAS): +21.9%
Washington Wizards	104		Comeback	9.3 [61]		LVP	Rashard Lewis (ORL): -19.8%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcin Gortat	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	83%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dwight Howard	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	13	61%	0.12	3	-0.09	12	42%	-0.10
Jason Williams	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.02	-0.00	8	62%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	0.03	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	2	80%	0.06	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.03
Mickael Pietrus	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	14	47%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Matt Barnes	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.03
JJ Redick	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	0.01	-0.05	0.01	12	50%	-0.04	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Brandon Bass	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.03	-0.03	11	25%	-0.11	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Rashard Lewis	-0.20	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.10	-0.09	0.00	13	31%	-0.13	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.14	0.09	0.01	6	100%	0.28	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.04
Antawn Jamison	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.05	0.00	21	54%	0.10	1	-0.00	10	70%	0.04
Randy Foye	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	17	48%	0.01	0	0.00	8	100%	0.02
DeShawn Stevenson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	4	62%	0.03	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Nick Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,0.01,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	0.00	-0.06	0.02	16	57%	0.09	4	-0.16	8	100%	0.04
Andray Blatche	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.06	-0.00	8	25%	-0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.06	-0.01	5	50%	0.00	5	-0.15	2	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	2.3	27.3	16.6	27.4	2.4	35.5	139.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +12.9%

WAS +19.7%

WAS +32.2%

ORL -20.8%

WAS +6.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	WAS	NBA	ORL	WAS	NBA
this game	14.1	15.8	15.3	100.0	108.3	106.0
season	15.4	15.7		110.1	102.6
opponent	15.3	15.9		107.9	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	12.4	13.4	15.6	15.1	14.1
WAS	17.1	17.3	15.7	13.2	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcin Gortat	26	26	0.20	-0.70	0.90	-0.06	9	-16	25	13.8	14.2	-0.34	15.8	15.7	0.06
Brandon Bass	28	28	0.10	-0.60	0.71	0.07	1	-8	9	15.4	13.6	1.88	14.6	16.2	-1.63
Vince Carter	21	20	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.03	-3	-4	1	12.7	14.5	-1.82	18.0	15.2	2.89
Jason Williams	39	41	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.22	4	-11	15	13.9	14.2	-0.37	16.2	15.5	0.72
Mickael Pietrus	47	48	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.13	-3	-4	1	13.4	14.7	-1.25	14.8	16.7	-1.98
JJ Redick	67	67	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.31	1	-8	9	14.1	14.0	0.18	15.1	17.2	-2.07
Jameer Nelson	58	55	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.08	-11	4	-15	14.2	13.9	0.37	15.5	16.2	-0.72
Rashard Lewis	59	58	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.27	-5	-2	-3	13.9	14.4	-0.54	17.4	13.3	4.13
Matt Barnes	69	67	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.27	-12	5	-17	14.6	13.0	1.59	15.5	16.4	-0.94
Dwight Howard	71	70	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.23	-16	9	-25	14.2	13.8	0.34	15.7	15.8	-0.06

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Randy Foye	72	74	0.90	-0.40	1.29	0.31	20	-13	33	15.9	15.3	0.57	14.3	13.3	0.98
Mike Miller	77	79	0.84	-0.34	1.17	0.31	18	-11	29	15.8	15.8	-0.04	14.6	12.1	2.50
Caron Butler	76	77	0.76	-0.26	1.03	0.29	16	-9	25	15.8	15.5	0.33	14.2	13.6	0.56
Brendan Haywood	66	67	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.19	15	-8	23	15.7	15.9	-0.20	14.8	12.6	2.21
Antawn Jamison	86	87	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.19	3	4	-1	15.5	18.4	-2.95	13.9	15.7	-1.79
Andray Blatche	31	30	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.19	-1	8	-9	17.1	15.1	2.02	14.2	14.0	0.16
Fabricio Oberto	6	6	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.03	-2	9	-11	15.0	15.8	-0.81	11.5	14.3	-2.76
DeShawn Stevenson	12	13	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	0.05	-7	14	-21	16.2	15.7	0.56	13.5	14.2	-0.73
Earl Boykins	30	29	-0.43	0.93	-1.36	0.01	-15	22	-37	15.3	16.0	-0.72	13.0	14.6	-1.61
Nick Young	30	29	-0.47	0.97	-1.45	-0.06	-14	21	-35	15.2	16.0	-0.86	12.2	14.9	-2.69

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.45,0.48,0.54,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.5,0.47,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.24,0.36,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.32,0.35,0.31,0.23,0.13,0.26,0.18,0.12,0.17,0.37,0.53,0.47,0.55,0.75,0.9,0.97,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 120, SAS 133	0.5,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.44,0.32,0.2,0.22,0.23,0.3,0.42,0.41,0.38,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.32,0.45,0.28,0.37,0.33,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.29,0.32,0.41,0.46,0.66,0.92,0.92,1,1,1	92.3%
SAC 79, UTA 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.28,0.32,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.39,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.31,0.29,0.15,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.11,0.19,0.3,0.46,0.62,0.61,0.72,0.91,0.98,1	91.7%
MIN 99, POR 108	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.23,0.33,0.37,0.43,0.54,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.29,0.32,0.27,0.24,0.13,0.15,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.58,0.53,0.46,0.54,0.76,0.97,0.97,1,1	91.6%