NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	86		Excitement	10.8 [32]		MVP	Nick Collison (OKC): +68.7%
Oklahoma City Thunder	87		Comeback	5.1 [267]		LVP	Mehmet Okur (UTA): -37.8%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Deron Williams	0.29	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.2,-0.06,0.01,-0.07,0.06,0.29	-0.03	0.32	0.00	14	47%	0.41	3	-0.13	2	100%	0.05
Wesley Matthews	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.09	0.10	-0.00	10	70%	0.19	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.04	-0.00	10	36%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Ronnie Brewer	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.00	9	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.07,-0.07	0.06	-0.11	0.02	13	57%	0.05	1	-0.12	4	75%	0.01
Andrei Kirilenko	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	5	58%	0.01	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
CJ Miles	-0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Price	-0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.28	-0.06	-0.22	-0.00	6	31%	-0.26	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Mehmet Okur	-0.38	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.29,-0.38,-0.38,-0.38,-0.38,-0.38	-0.22	-0.19	-0.03	18	28%	-0.18	5	-0.20	3	100%	0.02

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.21,0.69	0.69	0.06	0.62	-0.00	5	69%	0.71	1	-0.02	6	50%	0.05
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.06	1	-0.02	3	0%	-0.08
Eric Maynor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Nenad Krstic	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.04	-0.06	0.01	8	56%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	4	0%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	10	52%	0.08	6	-0.20	3	33%	-0.04
Kevin Durant	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.24,0.24,0.04,-0.15	-0.15	0.05	-0.23	-0.03	22	60%	0.09	5	-0.24	8	75%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.28,-0.21,-0.28,-0.28,-0.16,-0.36	-0.36	-0.18	-0.17	-0.00	12	27%	-0.03	4	-0.33	6	33%	-0.11

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	1.7	32.1	14.8	27.1	1.8	34.2	137.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +43.7%

OKC +16.0%

UTA -3.2%

UTA -8.6%

OKC +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	OKC	NBA	UTA	OKC	NBA
this game	15.1	16.0	15.3	92.5	94.6	106.0
season	15.3	15.0		109.5	106.2
opponent	15.5	15.0		103.1	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	15.0	15.7	15.7	14.0	15.1
OKC	16.3	13.1	17.0	18.1	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
CJ Miles	33	34	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.04	2	-3	5	14.7	15.3	-0.62	15.7	16.2	-0.54
Ronnie Brewer	53	52	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.08	0	-1	1	15.5	14.5	1.00	15.1	17.2	-2.13
Wesley Matthews	50	50	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.21	1	-2	3	15.7	14.4	1.22	16.6	15.4	1.13
Mehmet Okur	70	69	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.24	0	-1	1	14.6	16.6	-1.95	15.3	18.4	-3.13
Paul Millsap	49	50	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.21	-2	1	-3	15.7	14.5	1.18	16.7	15.3	1.44
Andrei Kirilenko	37	36	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.17	-6	5	-11	14.5	15.5	-0.92	16.0	16.1	-0.03
Ronnie Price	39	39	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.48	3	-4	7	15.2	15.1	0.10	17.5	14.9	2.60
Carlos Boozer	67	65	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.49	0	-1	1	15.2	14.8	0.35	16.4	15.3	1.11
Deron Williams	67	65	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.43	-3	2	-5	14.8	15.8	-1.04	15.7	16.9	-1.25

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nenad Krstic	56	58	0.74	-0.24	0.99	0.57	6	-5	11	16.3	15.6	0.66	14.7	15.7	-0.94
Kevin Durant	77	79	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.45	3	-2	5	15.9	17.0	-1.14	15.2	14.5	0.70
Nick Collison	62	63	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.38	3	-2	5	15.7	16.8	-1.07	15.4	14.4	0.98
Thabo Sefolosha	66	66	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.42	0	1	-1	16.1	15.9	0.17	14.5	16.4	-1.90
Russell Westbrook	64	65	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.40	0	1	-1	15.7	16.7	-1.02	14.4	16.6	-2.21
Eric Maynor	28	28	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.08	1	0	1	16.7	15.7	1.02	16.6	14.4	2.21
James Harden	24	24	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.06	0	1	-1	16.5	15.9	0.56	17.1	14.4	2.68
Serge Ibaka	30	28	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.02	-3	4	-7	15.9	16.1	-0.16	15.4	15.0	0.42
Jeff Green	53	54	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.03	-5	6	-11	16.3	15.7	0.52	14.6	15.8	-1.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.62,0.78,0.75,0.62,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.57,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 123, CLE 129	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.38,0.34,0.41,0.38,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.49,0.4,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.7,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.7,0.79,0.58,0.42,0.59,0.8,0.61,0.62,0.45,0.55,0.58,1	92.3%
MIN 96, DAL 104	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.53,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.67,0.64,0.62,0.55,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.74,0.71,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.45,0.67,0.67,0.46,0.77,0.83,1	92.0%
WAS 92, CHA 94	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.67,0.69,0.62,0.7,0.66,0.79,0.77,0.69,0.54,0.4,0.45,0.54,0.57,0.74,1	91.9%