NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	98		Excitement	5.6 [691]		MVP	Jerryd Bayless (POR): +19.9%
San Antonio Spurs	94		Comeback	1.3 [189]		LVP	George Hill (SAS): -13.8%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerryd Bayless	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.2	0.10	0.09	-0.01	24	53%	0.20	0	0.00	10	90%	0.07
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.19	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19	0.09	0.09	-0.02	13	69%	0.21	2	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Jeff Ayres	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	0.00	2	67%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Martell Webster	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.01	8	58%	0.06	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Steve Blake	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	6	58%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dante Cunningham	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	9	67%	0.07	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09	-0.09	0.00	0.00	13	29%	-0.08	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.02

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.12	0.07	0.02	11	73%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	-0.00	0.02	9	80%	0.13	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.03	0.01	3	100%	0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06	0.06	0.11	-0.02	0.03	10	75%	0.08	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.03	0.02	15	59%	0.13	3	-0.08	11	91%	0.05
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	9	39%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	2	0%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	3	67%	0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	8	19%	-0.09	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.9	2.5	27.9	15.8	27.3	1.6	33.3	137.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS -3.1%

POR +10.0%

POR +18.4%

POR +19.2%

POR +5.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	SAS	NBA	POR	SAS	NBA
this game	18.1	15.6	15.3	115.3	109.3	106.0
season	16.7	15.9		108.8	108.2
opponent	15.1	15.6		103.4	106.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	19.0	15.3	17.0	21.7	18.1
SAS	13.8	16.0	17.2	15.4	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Juwan Howard	65	66	0.97	-0.47	1.45	0.33	22	-18	40	18.3	17.5	0.74	15.7	15.0	0.69
Jerryd Bayless	73	76	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.32	9	-5	14	18.4	16.5	1.88	15.4	16.9	-1.49
LaMarcus Aldridge	56	58	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.38	6	-2	8	19.1	16.3	2.74	15.5	15.8	-0.36
Martell Webster	70	70	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.39	4	0	4	17.5	20.9	-3.42	15.5	15.8	-0.28
Andre Miller	55	55	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.09	5	-1	6	18.5	17.4	1.11	15.6	15.6	-0.05
Dante Cunningham	17	17	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.01	-2	6	-8	14.9	18.9	-4.04	16.3	15.4	0.89
Steve Blake	38	37	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.02	-4	8	-12	16.4	19.5	-3.16	16.2	15.1	1.02
Jeff Ayres	32	31	-0.45	0.95	-1.41	0.07	-18	22	-40	17.8	18.3	-0.44	15.1	15.9	-0.81

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
George Hill	34	32	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.25	9	-13	22	14.9	16.0	-1.16	18.2	18.0	0.21
Antonio McDyess	34	33	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.13	2	-6	8	14.1	16.5	-2.42	17.5	18.5	-1.08
Roger Mason Jr.	47	45	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.41	8	-12	20	15.8	15.3	0.55	19.4	16.7	2.72
Manu Ginobili	59	59	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.31	4	-8	12	15.4	16.0	-0.66	18.2	17.9	0.28
Keith Bogans	32	33	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	0.13	-12	8	-20	16.3	15.1	1.16	16.6	19.1	-2.47
Tim Duncan	72	73	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.34	3	-7	10	15.7	14.7	1.04	18.0	19.0	-1.03
Richard Jefferson	55	54	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.35	-1	-3	2	16.3	14.4	1.92	18.5	17.5	1.00
DeJuan Blair	31	29	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	0.05	-19	15	-34	15.3	15.8	-0.51	18.6	17.9	0.71
Tony Parker	66	67	-0.70	0.20	-0.91	-0.29	-14	10	-24	15.7	15.0	0.69	17.9	19.1	-1.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.44,0.36,0.37,0.45,0.4,0.51,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.29,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.12,0.17,0.25,0.26,0.34,0.34,0.42,0.32,0.17,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.01,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 86, SAS 77	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.47,0.48,0.59,0.64,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.58,0.48,0.36,0.42,0.33,0.2,0.23,0.19,0.15,0.17,0.13,0.19,0.3,0.25,0.28,0.32,0.21,0.24,0.17,0.08,0.04,0.02,0,0	93.3%
OKC 118, HOU 112	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.42,0.48,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.22,0.21,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.42,0.31,0.29,0.07,0.03,0,0,0.02,0	93.1%
HOU 97, SAC 85	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.43,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.36,0.32,0.38,0.28,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.22,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.19,0.22,0.19,0.1,0.02,0,0	93.1%