NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	86		Excitement	6.4 [506]		MVP	Jason Caffey (MIL): +7.6%
San Antonio Spurs	77		Comeback	1.8 [170]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -33.9%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Caffey	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.02	0.00	10	62%	0.08	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Scott Williams	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	6	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Pope	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	22	46%	-0.03	0	0.00	8	100%	0.05
Tim Thomas	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Lindsey Hunter	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	2	14%	-0.07	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.03
Ervin Johnson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	-0.13	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	16	41%	-0.05	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	-0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.04	-0.03	16	37%	-0.09	4	-0.08	6	67%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	5	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Malik Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sean Elliott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	7	36%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Ferry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	0.02	3	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	4	60%	0.02	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Samaki Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.04	-0.07	0.01	14	50%	-0.07	1	-0.05	10	70%	-0.01
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.05	-0.00	5	29%	-0.10	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.03
Derek Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.14	-0.08	-0.03	17	26%	-0.19	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.19,-0.2,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.31,-0.34,-0.34,-0.34,-0.34	-0.34	-0.20	-0.12	0.02	20	40%	-0.19	5	-0.15	10	80%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	2.3	31.5	16.4	23.2	1.8	29.2	131.0
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +51.9%

SAS -10.0%

SAS -2.7%

MIL +9.4%

MIL +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	SAS	NBA	MIL	SAS	NBA
this game	14.9	15.1	15.5	89.6	80.2	100.9
season	14.9	15.9		105.9	103.4
opponent	15.5	15.8		96.5	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.0	14.2	13.0	18.8	14.9
SAS	16.0	13.5	16.4	14.6	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ray Allen	81	81	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.20	17	-8	25	14.8	15.4	-0.60	15.3	14.3	0.99
Ervin Johnson	60	59	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.03	17	-8	25	13.8	16.8	-3.01	15.8	13.9	1.88
Glenn Robinson	67	65	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.19	7	2	5	15.9	12.5	3.46	15.5	14.4	1.11
Sam Cassell	75	75	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.13	9	0	9	14.1	17.7	-3.55	15.2	14.9	0.32
Tim Thomas	39	40	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.04	7	2	5	12.3	16.7	-4.40	14.7	15.4	-0.74
Mark Pope	26	27	0.23	0.27	-0.03	-0.00	8	1	7	15.2	14.8	0.35	17.6	14.1	3.51
Jason Caffey	53	54	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.29	-7	16	-23	16.0	13.5	2.55	14.5	15.9	-1.34
Darvin Ham	8	7	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.02	2	7	-5	10.7	15.3	-4.52	13.6	15.2	-1.65
Scott Williams	34	35	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.21	-8	17	-25	17.1	13.7	3.35	13.4	16.1	-2.68
Lindsey Hunter	37	37	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.12	-7	16	-23	16.5	13.9	2.54	14.2	15.7	-1.44

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Samaki Walker	32	28	0.16	-0.66	0.82	-0.13	10	-19	29	13.9	15.7	-1.80	15.4	14.7	0.75
Antonio Daniels	34	34	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.12	6	-15	21	13.6	15.9	-2.35	14.7	15.0	-0.25
Malik Rose	28	29	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.03	2	-11	13	13.8	15.6	-1.86	16.1	14.4	1.78
Sean Elliott	34	32	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.14	5	-14	19	15.4	15.0	0.43	13.8	15.4	-1.63
Avery Johnson	40	39	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.13	0	-9	9	15.0	15.2	-0.14	14.0	15.5	-1.47
Terry Porter	46	46	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.05	-10	1	-11	15.2	15.0	0.22	15.8	14.1	1.66
Tim Duncan	90	91	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.22	-8	-1	-7	15.3	12.8	2.42	14.6	20.2	-5.60
Danny Ferry	33	34	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.05	-17	8	-25	16.4	14.4	1.97	15.1	14.8	0.30
Derek Anderson	73	75	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.15	-14	5	-19	15.6	13.6	1.97	14.7	15.7	-0.99
David Robinson	70	72	-0.70	0.20	-0.91	-0.15	-19	10	-29	15.5	14.2	1.30	15.2	14.1	1.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.47,0.48,0.59,0.64,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.58,0.48,0.36,0.42,0.33,0.2,0.23,0.19,0.15,0.17,0.13,0.19,0.3,0.25,0.28,0.32,0.21,0.24,0.17,0.08,0.04,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 115, DEN 104	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.57,0.43,0.39,0.36,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.19,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.21,0.24,0.32,0.35,0.2,0.1,0.03,0,0,0,0	93.7%
POR 98, SAS 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.44,0.36,0.37,0.45,0.4,0.51,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.29,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.12,0.17,0.25,0.26,0.34,0.34,0.42,0.32,0.17,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.01,0.08,0	93.3%
ATL 80, NYK 71	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.6,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.43,0.36,0.22,0.27,0.23,0.26,0.22,0.27,0.26,0.1,0.19,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.15,0.1,0.11,0.13,0.03,0,0,0,0	93.2%